Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.

[Summer Sun]

another day, another option for the highs departure.

weve had it drift across us, weve had it retrogress and join the greenland high, now its expected to retrogress and join a strengthening azores high .  theres still plenty of time for yet another option to emerge, or to go back to a previous one.

the models all agree though that in the reliable timeframe the hiogh will sit just to the west of scotland/north of ireland this week and intensify. some of us are in line for some splendid, warm sunshine, whilst others will be frustrated by cloud, but it will be dry and warm even under the cloud. favoured places could get hot weds-fri.

then the high is expected to drift away westwards... but where it goes and what effect itll have on us is far from clear atm . but currently the options dont favour a return of the rains. so the rest of june should be largely dry, and theres plenty of scope for something hot and sunny to develop as we enter july. so many of us MIGHT miss out on the sun/heat this time, but classic hot spells often start in july.

 

And the 06z GFS run delays the breakdown till the 26th now........

 

 

I seem to remember somthing similar happening last summer a breakdown appeared but got pushed further and further back which resulted in somewhere in the UK exceeding 28c for 19 consecutive days of course we won't see those highs with this spell of settled weather but we could still see some very pleasant temperatures away from some eastern coasts

[SP1986]

Happened in 2003 in the Spring too, the high pressure was consistently models, but then it started showing a breakdown from the north, and some kind of retrogression due to lows toppling over the high - this came pretty close to the T0 time hour, maybe about 96 hours, but then the models have swift change of heart and held the high pressure firm, deflecting the low north towards Scandinavia, and onwards from there. 

 

I have been a little sceptical about the strength of retrogression, in my personal opinion, and I fully expect a GFS type scenario to occur, whereby high pressure quickly reinstates itself after a glancing below from the Scandi-trough. 

[bluearmy]

Same trends from yesterday - the Scandi trough tries to make inroads towards us but is repelled by the rebuilding heights from the wsw. The cut off nw Iberian trough helping to prop up the ridge to our west until reinforcements arrive from the sw.

A good looking start to the sporting summer - cricket/ascot/Wimbledon

[Polar Maritime]

It's looking like High Pressure will dominate the UK for the best part of this Month, Giving pleasant conditions apart from the East coast around the 20th where slack N/E winds will keep things a little cooler and cloudier, The GFS did very well picking this up at the beginning of the week.

 

Possibly turning more unsettled from the N/N/E at the turn of the Month for the North of the UK.

 

Edited June 14, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[mushymanrob]

And the 06z GFS run delays the breakdown till the 26th now........

 

 

I seem to remember somthing similar happening last summer a breakdown appeared but got pushed further and further back which resulted in somewhere in the UK exceeding 28c for 19 consecutive days of course we won't see those highs with this spell of settled weather but we could still see some very pleasant temperatures away from some eastern coasts

 

lol..yeah...  the other day the 06z had the high departing via the northwest, now its departing southeast!  now i do like todays gfs 06z, but theres no concensus really on what itll do later this week. for now lets just hope the sun breaks through the cloud. itll be very pleasant when it does.

[knocker]

lol..yeah...  the other day the 06z had the high departing via the northwest, now its departing southeast!  now i do like todays gfs 06z, but theres no concensus really on what itll do later this week. for now lets just hope the sun breaks through the cloud. itll be very pleasant when it does.

 

Not sure I'd like today's 06z if I was going to Glastonbury. It has a low with associated fronts moving in on Wednesday 25th..The low over Scotland by Thursday and into Scandinavia by Saturday. Total grot for two days.

Edited June 14, 2014 by knocker

[Woollymummy]

As it looks now like next weekend will be fine ( for camping and birthday party) what is the probability one week away that it will stay like that, and how far into next week could a pattern shift enough to make it a washout weekend? The other question is, when you look at the models from above the arctic and see lows developing west of the Atlantic, how persistent are they and is it possible to tell by the way they are developing if they will keep their identity as far as us?

[IDO]

Good news that the GFS ops on the last two runs have ditched the Iberian Low joining lower heights from Scandi. This outcome allows the UK high to remain in our locale. At T276 the Iberian Low merges with the Atlantic trough and the high retrogresses to Greenland:

 

 

This morning's GFS 0z had about 25% support for this synoptic. That's assuming the upper low eventually goes west.

 

GEM has HP throughout: 

 

UKMO at T144 is fine: 

 

Nice set of runs prolonging the warm weather.

Edited June 14, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[IDO]

The other side of the coin is if the Iberian upper low joins the Scandi trough. We can see the result on the 12z Control.

 

T180: 

 

So by  D10:    

 

Thankfully not much support for the intensity of that run within the suite, though the pressure fall is continuing to establish itself:

 

 

 

The mean continues to support the Scandi trough link with the Iberian Low: 

 

So there still remains uncertainty for week 2.

Edited June 14, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Methuselah]

I think you are right, ido...Does any one of us really have a clue about what'll happen in 10 days' time? Other than what the MetO is hinting at?

[mushymanrob]

nice to see the 12z gfs following the 06z with the high departing southeastwards, we would all get a splendid hot spell if this happens... but... it has no support and is in fi. IF the noaa 8-14 dayer anomaly shifts to support this then there will be reason for optimism, but atm its 'eye candy'.

[J10]

Not sure I'd like today's 06z if I was going to Glastonbury. It has a low with associated fronts moving in on Wednesday 25th..The low over Scotland by Thursday and into Scandinavia by Saturday. Total grot for two days.

 

Luckily this was bit of an outlier in terms oif the UK

 

Latest Glasto blog now out. Thigns looking a bit more promising now.

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4772-glastonbury-festival-2014-25-to-29-june-forecast-no-7-issued-14-june/

[IDO]

The 12z ECM continues to trend towards the GEFS mean, so at:

 

D6:   D8:  D10: 

 

It also links the Iberian low with the Scandi trough.

 

No surprises there, with this outcome the slight favorite its op was likely to reflect this at some point.

 

 

[knocker]

Next weekend the ECM ops gets quite droll. The 500mb anomaly shows an ridge west of the UK with latter being attacked by a pincer movement of the cold air to the NE and the upper low to the SW with some success.

 

On the surface all is reasonable well on Saturday with HP hanging on tenuously but come Sunday and Monday the low to the south has continued to stick it's beak in and the cold air to NE is also staking a claim leading to a temporary breakdown in the fine weather in the south, east and especially the north. Some quite cold air being introduced with negative 850s in the far north but this, I suspect, will be modified later. Oh the joy.

Edited June 14, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

An update with the ens for period.

Edited June 14, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

Continuing looking at next weekend but with GFS. The 500mb anomaly has a trough western Atlantic, a ridge eastern Atlantic just west of the UK with cold air Scandinavia edging into the UK and a low west of Spain.

 

 

The surface analysis Saturday through Tuesday.

 

The first couple of days HP is situated to the west of the UK 1029mb which generally dominates the UK weather giving a clear/N/NE light flow  At the same time there is low pressure over Greenland, a large area east of Scandinavia and a separate shallow low west of Spain.

 

By Monday the HP has retreated a tad with the Greenland low nipping east be north of Scotland leaving the UK in no man’s land apart from northern Scotland that is in the SE flow from the low and affected by some frontal action. By Tuesday the low is in the Baltic leaving the UK being squeezed between the two systems with fronts lying N/S and a generally wet day.

 

For Glastonbury the good news is that the HP to the west is set pull it’s weight once again and things don’t look too bad at all. Of course this is one model and away down the line so Saxo must be at hand. The main problem being the fluidity of the pattern at the moment.

[bluearmy]

The upcoming fight between the atlantic ridge and scandi trough looks to be potentially a better fight than the last one. again, we must remember that the models will tend to correct east with time, especially the ops. I note the week 2 anomolys beginning to look unconvincing to the extent that no solution would surprise. Last time, the anomolys, especially naefs remained bullish on the atlantic ridge.

[IDO]

The models have come together this morning with the Iberian upper low deciding to go east, and the GEFS pressure chart gives a rough overview:  

 

Pressure fall from the NE from D5 that also introduces cooler uppers: 

 

Pressure briefly rises again before a stronger push from the NE and the mean pressure falls again around D8. ECM agrees with this:

 

 D9: 

 

GEM similar pattern just degrees of variability how far East/West the pattern is:

 

 

 

As for surface conditions, the SE cooler than average the next few days, with a warm Thursday, before late in the day a cold front returns the cooler weather and maybe some rain associated with this. The following five days (to D10) average as a whole, maybe cloudy at times with little sign of washouts. The GEFS after D10 have no synoptic trends though less amplified and possibly remaining a slack setup, maybe N/S divide.

 

West looks best in this setup from D6-10.

 

 

 

[knocker]

The ECM for the weekend previously looked at. The 500mb anomaly is much the same as the GFS with the cold to east a wee bit further west and ditto the ridge. Surface analysis also not dissimilar.

Edited June 15, 2014 by knocker

[mushymanrob]

well its not looking like we will get a hot spell this time, the high appears to refuse to drift far enough eastward and that pesky scandinavian trough refuses to move eastwards either.  that small low toppling later in the week feeds the scandi trough too and introduces cooler northerly uppers.

 

but all is not 'lost', this failed attempt by the high to produce some real heat could get a second shot

 

ok thats fi... but it does have some support from the 8-14 day anomaly which suggests a return of the high top our near west...

 

in all, its not a bad outlook, largely (if not exclusively) dry, pretty warm especially where/when the cloud breaks. high pressure never too far off so theres plenty of scope for something warm/hot to evolve in the not too distant future.

Edited June 15, 2014 by mushymanrob

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Mushy, GFS tries to re-build strong Heights from the S/W during it's last few frames, Which could lead the UK to some real heat.. Overall there's plenty of settled warm weather on the way, Perfect for out-door activity's.

 

 

Edited June 15, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[mushymanrob]

..oh i see the ecm 00z also suggests the ridge re-building,

 

 

but goes abit messy @t240

 

im optimistic for at least some decent summery weather for the rest of june, theres no monsoon!

Edited June 15, 2014 by mushymanrob

[William of Walworth]

 

im optimistic for at least some decent summery weather for the rest of june, theres no monsoon!

I like this kind of talk!!! and yes, there do appear to be some signals for a good prospect for week 2 as well as week 1 ... Many heading for Somerset would be happy if dry and warm verifies!

Edited June 15, 2014 by William of Walworth

[TonyH]

The models have come together this morning with the Iberian upper low deciding to go east, and the GEFS pressure chart gives a rough overview:  graphe4_1000_306_141___Londres (32).gif

 

Pressure fall from the NE from D5 that also introduces cooler uppers: graphe3_1000_306_141___Londres (10).gif

 

Pressure briefly rises again before a stronger push from the NE and the mean pressure falls again around D8. ECM agrees with this:

 

ECM1-192 (10).gif  D9: ECM1-216 (7).gif

 

GEM similar pattern just degrees of variability how far East/West the pattern is:

 

 gem-0-216 (1).pnggem-0-240 (21).png

 

As for surface conditions, the SE cooler than average the next few days, with a warm Thursday, before late in the day a cold front returns the cooler weather and maybe some rain associated with this. The following five days (to D10) average as a whole, maybe cloudy at times with little sign of washouts. The GEFS after D10 have no synoptic trends though less amplified and possibly remaining a slack setup, maybe N/S divide.

 

West looks best in this setup from D6-10.

WIB days 1 to 5 too

[johnholmes]

the 3 major anomaly charts all show, and have done for at least 3 days now, a pattern similar to those shown in the links below. In summary ridging and +ve height anomalies over the UK area with a cut off upper low or very marked trough beneath the ridge along with almost coincident -ve height anomalies. So I would suggest that the upper pattern is fairly well documented for the coming 2 weeks or so. Of course the detail for the surface has to be decided, just where will the surface high sit on any particular day? The odds must be for it to be somewhere just west of Ireland, perhaps more NW than SW, but how close remains open to doubt. This leaves one thing clear, it should be mainly dry for the major part of the UK but another thing unclear, how much cloud and where. On that, to an extent, depends temperature levels.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

The best guidance out to 120h should be the Fax charts from Exeter.