Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.

[Milhouse]

ECM mean showing the high pressure is going to stick around for a while yet. Wind directions looks to be north/northwest round the top of the high so the best temperatures are to be found along the south coast. Where winds veer more northwest instead of north thats when eastern parts would see temperatures recover.

GEM ends on a stunning note with high pressure anchored over the UK similar to July 2013.

 

[summer blizzard]

Euro and Gfs ops both pull the high west.

[Cloud 10]

ECM ensemble mean has pushed the pattern quite a ways East compared to a few days ago with high pressure being much more influential for the UK.

 

3 days ago +240 hrs..  today 168 hrs..

 

GEFS mean looks fairly consistent using the same comparison.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

One thing I've noticed is the consistency of the GFS over the past couple of days to break down the weather on the 23rd

 

 

Increasing influence from Scandi troughing looks the form horse at present IMO between days 10-14.

Edited June 12, 2014 by CreweCold

[summer blizzard]

Indeed, the GFS and Euro do seem keen to keep going on the retrogression.

 

[SP1986]

Im a little sceptical aboutthe GFS interpretation and ECMs intepretation of pulling the high westwards, it's not really logical, and rarely happens anyway.. moreover, towards the GFS runs end, it has to develop cold air to reinforce the northerlies effects.. in June you are not going to simply develop cold air at will, at mid-lattitudes.. I suspect the models have once again progged the situation too far west, and eventually we will see corrections eastward, in my opinion.

Edited June 12, 2014 by SP1986

[Costa Del Fal]

One thing I've noticed is the consistency of the GFS over the past couple of days to break down the weather on the 23rd

 

 

Increasing influence from Scandi troughing looks the form horse at present IMO between days 10-14.

Fairly significant time away and something that hasn't been in range of the models too long. If over the last few days alone have seen the high become more influential then charts at 10 or so days away are going to probably change too. Nonetheless, it will be interesting to see how

Long this high has a holiday over the Uk.

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM ensemble mean has pushed the pattern quite a ways East compared to a few days ago with high pressure being much more influential for the UK.

 

3 days ago +240 hrs..EDM1-240.gif  today 168 hrs..EDM1-168.gif

 

GEFS mean looks fairly consistent using the same comparison.

 

gens-21-1-240 (1).pnggfs.png

This shows how certain models continue to show a bias towards this solution. Happened during the July spell last year as well.

To the two posts below, well I must applaud you for making me chuckle, but seriously? Given the atrocious verification record of that pattern, is there any reasonable chance of that GFS FI happening? Oh yeah and this mornings GFS

No northerly, not exactly consistent.

 

Edit - GFS day 10 mean

High pressure still dominant

 

So the rest of the models, GFS has the high ebbing east and west as low pressure systems pass overhead, the flow remaining from the north for most of the time so warm and bright in the west and cooler and cloudier in the east. GEM, yep it's at it again and tries to pull a proper northerly for week 2. UKMO is interesting as it wants to place the high directly over the UK and cuts off the flow from the north sea. So bright and warm everywhere with afternoon sea breezes

 

to me it still looks like the high will stick around for a fair amount of time. This ties in with the ensembles which keep pressure high near the UK to day 10 at least, and also the metoffice forecasts. As per usual I think a more likely breakdown solution will come from the west as either the high will flatten allowing a front to push down from the north west or the high will push east and allow a classic thundery breakdown.

Edited June 13, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Man With Beard]

This trough next to Iberia could have an interesting effect on our weather:

Every ensemble member has this trough in more or less the same place by T192. If it can move a bit closer to us, or things reshape a little, it could eventually act as a giant heat hoover, perhaps as early as next weekend. Some ens members show this kind of idea. 

[Captain Shortwave]

This trough next to Iberia could have an interesting effect on our weather:

Every ensemble member has this trough in more or less the same place by T192. If it can move a bit closer to us, or things reshape a little, it could eventually act as a giant heat hoover, perhaps as early as next weekend. Some ens members show this kind of idea. 

Interesting spot, that cut off low could be crucial. But it all depends on the placement of our high. If the high is far enough east (say similar to the UKMO at day 6), then you could quite easily see the heat coming round the western flank of the low and surge northwards and develop a Euro/Scandi ridge as our high gets dragged further east. If the high ends up further west however, you would end up with the ECM which holds the heat over the continent whilst we keep the status quo.

Nothing in the output that suggests a change to much cooler weather countrywide this morning.

Edited June 13, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[bluearmy]

The Gfs T384 whilst only providing it's usual 'comic value' does remind us that a TD could easily come Into the Atlantic basin at this time of year and upset the 'status quo'

[Polar Maritime]

Yes, The GFS is showing settled warm/very warm conditions through-out it's run with High Pressure bang over the UK for the best part of this Month, With only the last few frames showing some sorts of weak breakdown off the Atlantic out in FI.

 

ECMWF also shows a settled run through-out..

 

Edited June 13, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[johnholmes]

Rather varying outputs from most models over the last few days including the anomaly outputs. This is almost always a signal that the upper air pattern is not really clearly defined.

Overall the idea has gained ground of a cut off upper low beneath an upper ridge (both with their relevant

-/+ve anomalies) for the UK and close by has gained more probability in the past 2-3 days. The actual flow is still not clear leaving the surface flow even more unclear. Will the ridge dominate or will the trough?cut off low be dominant, how warm will it be.

An interesting few days as the weather decides what it will do. It may well be into mid next week before this issue is resolved.

Edited June 13, 2014 by johnholmes

[IDO]

The current MJO forecasts for week 1 show phase 4: 

 

Giving a composite: 

 

In line with the current output for higher heights west based of the UK. The GEFS in week 2 keep us in this phase but weaken the indices. The GEFS show this in FI with around 40% trying to disrupt the HP to our locale. 

 

JMA update for week 2: 

 

They are hinting at lower heights based in Scandi extending SW towards the UK.

 

By week 3-4 the UK has lost the higher pressure: 

 

This ties in with phase 5 composite for July: 

 

In the shorter term the upcoming pressure rise has settled in a cooler scenario for the SE/E so that Sunday-Tuesday settled but below average temps before they rise to average to above for the second half of next week. A corker today to look forward to.

 

After D10 I suspect things may change but more runs needed to be confident of that.

Edited June 13, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Summer Sun]

UKMO continues to show high pressure dominating this morning

 

 

 

The ECM ens at day 10 (23rd) shows high pressure remaining close by

 

 

Similar story from the GFS ens at day 10 (23rd) and beyond

 

[Evening thunder]

Ensemble means still not particularly keen to retrogress the high to the NW.

ECM day 10:

 

GEFS day 10: 

 

GEFS Day 15:

Edit: I see Summer Sun just covered this

Edited June 13, 2014 by Evening thunder

[shaky]

Brilliant ensemble charts for weather fans who love very warm sunny weather!!long may it continue!!

[summer blizzard]

Operationals all keep the high west of the UK to varying degrees with the Gem and GFS6z operational more bullish.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Operationals all keep the high west of the UK to varying degrees with the Gem and GFS6z operational more bullish.

 

 

Yes the 6z brings the breakdown further forward-now around the 21st as can be seen from that chart above. The pattern going forward looks messy but the MJO composites hardly inspire confidence in an extended warm and settled spell, regardless of what the day 10 ensemble means show at present.

[mushymanrob]

Yes the 6z brings the breakdown further forward-now around the 21st as can be seen from that chart above. The pattern going forward looks messy but the MJO composites hardly inspire confidence in an extended warm and settled spell, regardless of what the day 10 ensemble means show at present.

 

i dont care... both the ecm and gfs 06z show some sort of possible breakdown later next week but they both show a week of fine settled dry weather becoming hot by wednesday with some high uppers. ill bank that! (where is frosty?)

 

i dont follow the mjo, i dont understand it, its not as simple as 'its in this phase so this composit will occur' , it appears to be a law unto itself. i do find the anomaly charts that john championed to be a very good indicator (with the old caeat of when they are in agreement) of what might lie ahead, and in the short term they are sticking with the high to our near west, and the 8-14 dayer hints it might become closer. so any breakdown as depicted on the gfs 06z appears a temporary blip as the 00z ecm suggests and theres no sign of any pattern change ... hell this one is only just starting! lets enjoy it first!

Edited June 13, 2014 by mushymanrob

[cheeky_monkey]

i dont care... both the ecm and gfs 06z show some sort of possible breakdown later next week but they both show a week of fine settled dry weather becoming hot by wednesday with some high uppers. ill bank that! (where is frosty?)

 

 

i don't see any high uppers next Wednesday...dry with average temps certainly doesn't look hot to me.

[Evening thunder]

Despite pulling the high west a bit most operationals I've seen in recent days do not bring any below average uppers into the south of the UK, and the GFS 06z is the same, keeping maxima in the low 20's for the southern half of the UK even when the northerly drift is present in FI, before things break down from the west instead (coincidentally with lower uppers for the south).

Not before a couple very warm days on the 06z at any rate:

 

I thought the ensemble means were more reliable than operationals at these time frames though? Seems we are told to use them and disregard operational runs at times, but for a few it's now the other way round and the ensemble means are largely ignored?

 

The ensemble means are quite clear about lower heights to the NW around Greenland too, for now I will be consistent and continue to pay attention to them and not get too hung up on the detail of operational runs beyond a week or so.

[William Grimsley]

Despite pulling the high west a bit most operationals I've seen in recent days do not bring any below average uppers into the south of the UK, and the GFS 06z is the same, keeping maxima in the low 20's for the southern half of the UK even when the northerly drift is present in FI, before things break down from the west instead (coincidentally with lower uppers for the south).

Not before a couple very warm days on the 06z at any rate:

 

I thought the ensemble means were more reliable than operationals at these time frames though? Seems we are told to use them and disregard operational runs at times, but for a few it's now the other way round and the ensemble means are largely ignored?

 

The ensemble means are quite clear about lower heights to the NW around Greenland too, for now I will be consistent and continue to pay attention to them and not get too hung up on the detail of operational runs beyond a week or so.

Friday looks like a belter!

[IDO]

Yes relatively cool in the SE for Sunday-Tuesday next week before temps recover to average Wednesday, before another decent Thursday/Friday. 

 

ECM: 

 

GFS (as above) also similar. On recent runs the GEFS are trending to cut off the feed to the upper high over the UK; mostly this is only temporary, as a ridge is restored, but this appears to be where there is divergence on the GFS suites:

 

Mean:  Pressure:

 

Though some members don't cut the feed. So by D7 a multiple of possible outcomes: T168 ensembles. 

 

GEM looking more realistic than ECM in how the cut off Iberian/Azores upper low is dealt with. ECM keeps it as a feature even out to D10:

 

 

Whilst GEM, like GFS sucks it back into the main upper flow as the UK upper ridge weakens: 

 

Its a peculiarity of how ECM deals with high pressure cells, its NH bias  for heights remains well into the positive:

 

This always dampens my confidence in ECM with regard to a UK HP scenario, so maybe currently the GFS is the best model to look for developments in week 2.  Beijing for the last 10 days of the month (anomaly) also similar to JMA, with pressure falling in our region:

 

   

 

No real confidence for surface conditions after D6 IMO.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 13, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[bluearmy]

 

 

No real confidence for surface conditions after D6 IMO.

 

and i was thinking quite differently - i see a possible temporary respite from high slp and heights before the ridge builds back in through week 2.