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Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.


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gem still intoxicated with a marked scandi trough in the 6/10 day period.

trust me bluearmy that's gona change in the next 24 hours or so!!gem has a habit of dropping patterns suddenly and follow the better models just like that!!wouldn't pay too much attention to it!!
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Lovely charts continue from ukmo and gfs this afternoon!!weekend northerly practically removed!!high pressure virtually on top off the uk!!

Hmm, not so sure I would describe Saturday as a great day for much of England and Wales on the 12z GFS:

 

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Visibly some sort of frontal disturbance there, fairly apparent from the pressure charts too:

 

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Of course I am in no way advocating the use of a single operational run 4 days away :)

 

SK

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In reply to snowking's post, there may actually be convective outbreaks somewhere to liven things up for a day or two, amongst the mostly fine dry warm days (maybe, if there isn't a cap and the GFS isn't overdoing convective precipitation like it often does in these situations). Not gunna complain at that personally 

 

Re any North Sea cloud risk for eastern areas, SST's are currently notably above average, by over 3C in places: 

http://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/latest_analysis/sst_monitor/ostia/anom_plot.html?i=34&j=2 

 

Though with slightly cooler pools near/by the East coast, also seen on the actual SST map: http://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/latest_analysis/sst_monitor/ostia/sst_plot.html?i=34&j=2

 

Not sure how that will effect things, but perhaps there will be less cloud, and it will be more what would normally happen later in the summer with the warmer sea temps, though on the other hand maybe in a NE flow more moisture picked up from the higher anomalies (14-15C) further east could produce more cloud over relatively cooler (13C) pools near the coast?

 

 

Edit: for some odd reason, I can't get the image on the first link to work from this post despite the fact it's exactly the same URL as does work from by bookmarks? Not sure if it's the same for others but if so use the 2nd link and click 'SST anomaly plot for same region'

Edited by Evening thunder
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The day 5 - day 6 transition is very very sudden from the ECM, looks way too quick. 

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Day 7 says it all, any route to a Scandi trough from this model at the moment.

 

I must say there is still stark contrasts over Greenland even at 4 days away from the models, so confidence is low.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Hmm, not so sure I would describe Saturday as a great day for much of England and Wales on the 12z GFS:

 

 

Visibly some sort of frontal disturbance there, fairly apparent from the pressure charts too:

 

 

 

Of course I am in no way advocating the use of a single operational run 4 days away :)

 

SK

 

the latest fax has the CF as a decaying feature although over the past couple of days it has ebbed and flowed somewhat with this feature. the ecm 12z op brings some weak precip sw through sat. a crude look at the slp would say that any rainfall has to be very weak. will definitely be a widish cloud band associated with it though should be a marked back edge. 

 

looking into week 2 and the atlantic trough seems to be our saviour, be it in generating a cut off upper low towards iberia to stop the ridge from sinking or in creating a decent mid atlantic depression to drive another ridge in our vicinity. either way, it seems to be the reason that the developing scandi trough doesnt retrogress as far as the uk.

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Latest GFS op reverts to retrogression of the heights to Greenland, somewhat akin to ECM. Only one run, but given recent output, my money's on a trough to the East by next weekend. Nonetheless, summer is demonstrably here - bring us some heat!!!

 

 

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All hail the mighty MJO, and the subsequent model mayhem it causes. Initiating currently and also the catalyst for the full blown Nino

 

http://envam1.env.uea.ac.uk/mjo_forecast.html

 

Here is the June solution for phase 6 to which each of the GEFS, UKMO and ECM vary slightly.

 

post-7292-0-29402900-1402526168_thumb.gi

 

Notice the lingering Greenland highs on that plot which have also been dancing about on the mid range output. Nothing is ever easy of the UK, always a fly in the ointment somewhere !

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The GEM finally backs down this morning and places high pressure in charge throughout its run

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UKMO

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GFS

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Looks like heights will be pulled back westwards a little again. This could be a frustrating time for those in the east as this opens the door for cooler and cloudier north/north easterlies. Again west looks best this morning.

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There we go gem backs down which is what I said yesterday!!no point even taking a look at that model!!models in general still the same as yesterday with high pressure on top but a slight movement west I think!!regardless I think where gona see movements east and west over the next few days but is gona make a huge difference whether eastern areas are sunny or covered in cloud!!

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Looking at GFS this morning and next week starts on a cooler note than of late but especially so in the SE with temperatures really struggling under the predicited cloud

 

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For Tuesday cloud looks thicker more widely (the further west you are the better it looks) but again the SE really struggles with highs of just 16 or 17c after basking in the mid 20's this week

 

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Onto Wednesday and temperatures just start to edge up slightly though cloud still affecting the SE

 

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So a cooler and cloudier start to next week for some next week unless the high can shift further east in the coming days and cut off the light north to north easterly flow

Edited by Summer Sun
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There we go gem backs down which is what I said yesterday!!no point even taking a look at that model!!models in general still the same as yesterday with high pressure on top but a slight movement west I think!!regardless I think where gona see movements east and west over the next few days but is gona make a huge difference whether eastern areas are sunny or covered in cloud!!

 

With respect, all models need to be looked at and are useful.

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With respect, all models need to be looked at and are useful.

am just going according to the gems history!!everyone can take a look at what model they want but am just saying its not a model that I take too seriously!! personally I don't look at that model much!!
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I would like to think that people discussing weather models use all information that is open to them when making forecasts!! Ignoring models or not looking at them that often will not give an unbiased view!! ;)

Edited by simshady
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Day 10 ECM ens keeps high pressure close by highest temperatures would be for those in the west and south west

 

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Quite a change from a few days back when it was looking unsettled

 

Latest met office update suggests high pressure will dominate next week and into the following week though cloud and patchy rain could affect some areas all will depend of where the high positions its self

Edited by Summer Sun
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With respect, all models need to be looked at and are useful.

 

 

I would like to think that people discussing weather models use all information that is open to them when making forecasts!! Ignoring models or not looking at them that often will not give an unbiased view!! ;)

 

whilst i broadly agree with you, the gfs 06z is bonkers!  it has no support especially from its own anomaly chart which suggests high pressure over us, not retrogressing northwestwards.now im not saying that what the 06z depicts cannot happen, but its on its own with no support and unless any other model or run supports it, it should be read, but put on the shelf of 'improbability'.

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whilst i broadly agree with you, the gfs 06z is bonkers!  it has no support especially from its own anomaly chart which suggests high pressure over us, not retrogressing northwestwards.now im not saying that what the 06z depicts cannot happen, but its on its own with no support and unless any other model or run supports it, it should be read, but put on the shelf of 'improbability'.

 

 

That is not true, there are some runs on the GFS 06Z ensembles that support GFS 06Z OP in a weeks time, I certainly wouldn't be so dismissive over such a scenario occurring especially as GEM/ECM were toying with that idea just a few days ago, with the temperamental state the models have been in lately I wouldn't be writing it off, probably wouldn't pull that much northwestwards in actual reality but still not sinking to our SE where most want it, a breakdown will come eventually, weeks on end of HP aren't common in the UK.

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That is not true, there are some runs on the GFS 06Z ensembles that support GFS 06Z OP in a weeks time, I certainly wouldn't be so dismissive over such a scenario occurring especially as GEM/ECM were toying with that idea just a few days ago, with the temperamental state the models have been in lately I wouldn't be writing it off, probably wouldn't pull that much northwestwards in actual reality but still not sinking to our SE where most want it, a breakdown will come eventually, weeks on end of HP aren't common in the UK.

 

ok then, the gfs 06z has little support :p lol.

 

the anomaly charts appear to be on kind of the same wavelength, all suggest high to our west/northwest, and the 8-14 dayer appears to suggest the high will become closer to the uk. which is something most gfs runs (bar the 06z) and the 00z ecm are currently suggesting.

 

post-2797-0-26839000-1402578879_thumb.gi

 

the gfs anomaly does support the initial 06z, but its hard to see why the 06z should then go to such extremes in retrogressing it.interestingly the noaa charts are more in line with the ecm, so whilst the intial high is to our west, the noaa 8-14 appears to shift it eastward which agrees with the ecm 00z.note the low anomaly just west of iberia, IF theres an eastward drift of the high, that could allow some hot thundery weather associated with that low up its western flank.

 

post-2797-0-33742700-1402579108_thumb.gi

 

post-2797-0-79553300-1402579130_thumb.gi

Edited by mushymanrob
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Looking at GFS this morning and next week starts on a cooler note than of late but especially so in the SE with temperatures really struggling under the predicited cloud

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

For Tuesday cloud looks thicker more widely (the further west you are the better it looks) but again the SE really struggles with highs of just 16 or 17c after basking in the mid 20's this week

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Onto Wednesday and temperatures just start to edge up slightly though cloud still affecting the SE

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

So a cooler and cloudier start to next week for some next week unless the high can shift further east in the coming days and cut off the light north to north easterly flow

Of coarse based on one model and one model run very unlikely to pan out as suggested.

Over the last five days the trend is very much settled warm very summery exception east coast only if you base your focus on one model and one run !

But across all models its set pretty fair no heatwave and no below temps average or slightly above.

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For a bit of fun ,seeing as the World cup has started both gfs and ecm a T+240 differ greatly!! :rofl: I wonder which model is right.... :cc_confused:

The correct answer is most likely 'neither'
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Not sure if common knowledge or not...but GM (UKMO) breaks down blocks faster than it should as a function of the statistics that output the verification index..so in short, more often than not, it gets it right, as more often than not, HP does not dominate and GM pushes us back into a zonal pattern consistent with climatological mean. (the model looks better, scores higher, we get it right most of the time). So, if GM keeps block for a long time, this is quite interesting as it is going against its internal revert to zonal flow after 3-4 days...so we can gain good confidence from this. I would be confident in 10 day output at this point in time.This is reflected in UK Outlook for Monday 16 Jun 2014 to Wednesday 25 Jun 2014 on MO website.

That is really interesting, thanks, and certainly the other models back the idea up that we will be influenced by HP for some time. For the moment, we may have a week stuck on the cooler side of the High (I say that relatively, I would expect SW areas to be well above their normal next week), but all that is needed is for the High to drift over our top and it'll go hot - doesn't the ECM have a reputation fir pushing the pattern east as T0 approaches? :)
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