Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.

[knocker]

Well i hadn't had my coffee ba. Yes the flow is quite slack with the low pressure stuck over southern Europe giving some very grotty weather there. Cancel the holiday. An update with the 00z 500mb anomaly.

 

[mushymanrob]

looks to me like a ne/sw split with the southwestern/western areas in for some lengthy sunny spells and heat, areas exposed to the northsea will fare worse with pesky cloud... (from saturday onwards)

 

models that break the link between 'our' high and the greenland high allow 'our'high to drift eastwards bringing heat to all. those that keep the link anchores us in the ne/sw split.however its looking predominantly dry! and with high pressure close by theres always a heatwave evolution possible, aty worse itll be 'summery' for most. cant be bad.

[Polar Maritime]

A very warm if not "Hot" end to the GFS this morning.. It certainly looks like Summer proper 'could' be just around the corner.

 

Edited June 11, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Captain Shortwave]

A little better upstream this morning with some kind of noticeable jet driving into the Atlantic. This seems to make heights near Greenland more transient and mean that the high just west of the UK remains in situ, as opposed to pulling even further away. This is good new for western areas and you will probably see a prolonged spell of fine and quite sunny condition.

We do need the high to shift further east though to get something decent UK wide as low cloud could be quite extensive in eastern areas and even central areas at times.

Edited June 11, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Man With Beard]

Interestingly the ECM has followed GFS this morning in removing Greenland heights from D8 onwards. Will its ens agree?

Certainly 8+ days of largely fine weather coming up, not a 30C+ spell but I think daily maxes between 22C and 25C (maybe 27C on the odd day), the warmest areas switching to the west from the weekend.

If Greenland heights are avoided, perhaps the chance to warm up even more.

[Polar Maritime]

ECMWF is showing more settled synoptic's this morning than previous runs, With Low Pressure more to the East towards the end of the run keeping the High over the UK, And the slack Northerly not really having much of an influence on the UK.. The Atlantic looks to be running out of steam now.

 

 

Edited June 11, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[cheeky_monkey]

A very warm if not "Hot" end to the GFS this morning.. It certainly looks like Summer proper 'could' be just around the corner.

 

do these temperature charts not show low 20s not hot weather?...looks ideal summer weather though

[johnholmes]

The 6-10 and further out are most probably best indicated at height, as is often the case, by the NOAA outputs with EC looking more like their 6-10 day than does GFS?

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

That is ridging to the NW of the UK both in the upper air and surface giving a flow from north not south into the UK.

[knocker]

The ECM ops is sticking to the story it's been running regarding the weekend onwards. The GFS is almost identical this morning including the 500mb anomaly.  The ECM also has the warm air Canada/Greenland to the ridge just west of the UK with the cold pool central and eastern Atlantic. The GFS has the jet running south of the Greenland high and then swinging north around the ridge west of the UK

 

The detail regarding the regional weather/temps is not possible to pin down at this stage but in general slightly above average temps and variable cloud but very little precipitation.

Edited June 11, 2014 by knocker

[shaky]

All models show a much better weekend now in terms of sunshine!!the northerly is a very weak and slack affair with high pressure pretty much over the top!!I expect the natural eastward trend to continue!!oh and ecm looking very summary indeed!!ukmo the best of the lot for the weekend!!

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Lovely rest of the week coming up weather wise for most. Looks like a cool down happening over the weekend, but will still remain warm. UKMO going for only a temporary cool down before warming again, but ECM keeps it cooler for much longer. Either way it's still going to be settled for the foreseeable.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO looking a lot better too still slightly fresher near the east coast at times but other than that pleasantly warm and mostly sunny it would be

 

 

t06 to t72 remains unavailable for the 5th day

Edited June 11, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Man With Beard]

ECM ens mean at T240:

HLB (i.e. heights in Northern Latitudes) are virtually gone. This could be a defining factor for the early part of our summer. If HLB fails to build, June could end up being an excellent summer month from start to finish, bar the odd blip - and the ECM op and mean have joined other models this morning in not building it.

[knocker]

The ECM ens paints a similar picture to ops but looking to the end of the run and the 500mb anomaly there is a gradual weakening of the warm air over Greenland and the ridge and a trough developing with the colder air from the east and south edging closer giving a more unsettled outlook. This of course is just speculation at the moment.

Edited June 11, 2014 by knocker

[summer blizzard]

Interesting. Perhaps the GFS was on the money with lower heights.

 

[SP1986]

GFS 6z is a run that will please many warm, and sunshine lovers. The high pretty much parks itself over the UK for much of the run. Only in late FI does the high relinquish its grip. A summery outlook, however the exact positioning of the high probably is not nailed down yet.

[049balt]

Once again it was here that the coming settled weather was spotted first, although it has taken time for confidence to rise it now looks like Summer will be with us for the next week or so. The Met Office have only in the last couple of days come on board, nothing new there!

[knocker]

Once again it was here that the coming settled weather was spotted first, although it has taken time for confidence to rise it now looks like Summer will be with us for the next week or so. The Met Office have only in the last couple of days come on board, nothing new there!

 

There really is a load of nonsense posted on here at times.

[Man With Beard]

There really is a load of nonsense posted on here at times.

I think this person is referring to posts from about 10-15 days ago, in which ensemble trends indicated the possibility of High Pressure setting up over the UK during this week. Looking ahead to the next few days, it would appear that these trends will be proved correct in terms of weather, but not completely accurate for temperature - there were suggestions of a long period of uppers above 10C, but now they look to fluctuate between 6C and 9C. To be fair to the Met Office, all they did was sit on the fence a little - I notice they have come right off the fence today, mentioning "very warm" in the 15 day+ period...

[knocker]

And if I remember correctly it was referring to an evolution from the SE which did briefly materialise but since then the tropospheric pattern has taken a few twists and turns and evolved differently. I just find it odd that someone can presume that a bunch of amateurs know more than very experienced professionals with access to vast amounts of information, on it seems, a regular basis.

[Polar Maritime]

Can we please only discuses "Model Output" in this thread as the title indicates. There are many other threads on the Forum to discuss other topics including the METO. In any-case they have far better Information/Data to look at than we do, So there really is no comparison.

 

Many thanks.

 

Please continue... 

Edited June 11, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Captain Shortwave]

UK high for the GFS this afternoon

 

UKMO similar

 

Temperatures should rise next week, possibly becoming very warm in places.

Edited June 11, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Cap't, Time to get the Sun Cream out..

 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO continues to show high pressure dominating the only issue is cloud amounts at times from light north easterly winds especially for the east coast which would limit temperature

 

 

Some of the highest temperatures initially will probably be in the west where you have shelter as GFS shows

 

Edited June 11, 2014 by Summer Sun

[shaky]

Lovely charts continue from ukmo and gfs this afternoon!!weekend northerly practically removed!!high pressure virtually on top off the uk!!