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Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.


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GFS and UKMO ops are really pretty close to one another at T144:

 

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Not that bad at all, especially considering the significant Greenland High.

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A rare opportunity for me to comment on the afternoon output thanks to a cancelled meeting and an early finish...

 

GFS offers plenty of settled conditions in High-Res though nothing exceptionally warm to my eyes. The HP isn't positioned well for heat and instead the south will enjoy a pleasant E'ly breeze to take the top off the heat and humidity so comfortable for Ascot next week.

 

Into low-res and signs of the trough finally dropping into Scandinavia and an evolution to something much less summery but we've seen this for a while without anything occurring so for now nothing to be too concerned about. Problems with sea fog to some coasts I would guess and night time minima inland probably on the low side for mid-June (though that's not hugely unusual).

 

GEM has the HP that touch further west keeping all of the British Isles in a slack Northerly which wouldn't be terribly summer-like but not disastrous. As others have said, UKMO at T+144 very close to GFS with the HP close to Donegal keeping us all in a settled regimen but with a nice cooling breeze for the SE which will be very helpful.

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Upstream events are really going against us here with a big amplified ridge off the Eastern seaboard. This teases our high further north west. The change being that core heights are now centred west of Scotland as opposed to southern Ireland this morning. We are now left with a nagging north easterly flow which develops this weekend. I was hoping the high would end up a little further south/south east and bring a fine summery spell to many areas. But it's starting to slip away in terms of probability now.

I'm still going to say no to a Scandi trough effecting the UK, but to be honest we could be stuck in a cloudy north/north easterly for quite a while.

Western areas and Ireland look pretty good still, just for balance.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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The ECM is keeping the HP to the west for the weekend so if this remains the scenario it's thermals for Skeggy. The 500mb anomaly for the end of run shows a break down of the warm air with the Greenland ridge retreating and the colder Atlantic air taking control with a return of unsettled cyclonic conditions for the UK

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Edited by knocker
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Seems a retrogression of the high early next week from both ecm and gfs  out at the unreliable time frame @t-168. Even by then cool and cloudy weather with weak fronts toppling over that high. West is probably best, Ecm in its outer reaches show a decline in pressure with strong pressure across the Artic ........ :closedeyes:Both ecm and gfs have been hinting on this for some time... :closedeyes:

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Edited by ANYWEATHER
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Well done to the ECM I think for picking out the High position and a much cooler weekend now looks likely, perhaps turning quite cold and unsettled from the middle of next week.

great, another blink and you'll miss it fine spell
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Well done to the ECM I think for picking out the High position and a much cooler weekend now looks likely, perhaps turning quite cold and unsettled from the middle of next week.

Well done? Its still some 4 or 5 days away yet. Save the Well done till Monday if it has got it right! The changes over the last 24 hours suggests the changes arent finished yet either!!!

 

Like some others have said, still think things such as the scandi trough are being well overcooked - has happened a fair few times before.

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Well done to the ECM I think for picking out the High position and a much cooler weekend now looks likely, perhaps turning quite cold and unsettled from the middle of next week.

 

Well with 8 or 9 days till the proposed breakdown a lot will happen between now and mid next week nothing nailed on yet

 

Away from Scotland and the east coast the weekend will still see some decent temperatures down from those of late yes but closer to average for many how warm it would fell will depend on cloud cover of course

 

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That awful chart from ECM unsurprisingly has no support

 

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Before that pressure looks highest the further west you are according to the ECM ens winds shown to come down from the north so fresher than of late but still warm in any sunshine

 

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Edited by Summer Sun
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Well done? Its still some 4 or 5 days away yet. Save the Well done till Monday if it has got it right! The changes over the last 24 hours suggests the changes aren't finished yet either

 

Like some others have said, still think things such as the scandi trough are being well overcooked - has happened a fair few times before.

Bolded bit : quite right. We're still in very changeable back-and-forth type territory just now.

 

I, the summer lover par excellence (and in my own head the hopecaster!), have done my best to avoid ramping up some of the more positive runs. Can I suggest that people don't rush in too quickly to overcook any possibilities for a 'written off June'? Especially not just from one or two sets of runs?

 

Some runs may suggest uncertainty for more summery conditions, but most of us know enough to be well aware that significant changes in positioning and detail can and will still still happen over coming runs.

Edited by Polar Maritime
Can we keep to Model Discussion please.
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Well with 8 or 9 days till the proposed breakdown a lot will happen between now and mid next week nothing nailed on yet

 

Away from Scotland and the east coast the weekend will still see some decent temperatures down from those of late yes but closer to average for many how warm it would fell will depend on cloud cover of course

 

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That awful chart from ECM unsurprisingly has no support

 

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Before that pressure looks highest the further west you are according to the ECM ens winds shown to come down from the north so fresher than of late but still warm in any sunshine

 

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The ECM op seems to have a tendency to overplay heights, so I'd be surprised if it's as bad as that come the morning. 

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Can we all please keep to Model Discussion only in this thread.

 

Thank-you please continue.. 

Edited by Polar Maritime
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i think there is a bit too much reaction to a set of ops this evening. we are outside of any decent reliability next week and you would be better sticking with the ens mean. yes, it does look like a cooler spell but the weather looks likely to be very useable to me. a distinct lack of appreciable rainfall.

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Well this was slightly unexpected, GFS goes back to a UK high for next week.

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turning warm UK wide with the highest temperatures over Ireland. 

 

Is the GFS being a tease or will there be something better on the output tomorrow?

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I think you pays your money & takes your choice at the moment Captain. I's only a few days since we were supposed to be under a LP within a couple of days of the plume heading East & even on Sunday the Countryfile forecast had us under a LP & North Westerly winds by Friday. We seem to be continuing a trend from the winter where anything Northerly gets removed closer to the time. Long may it last I say!

Edited by davehsug
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GFS 18Z op seems to go with 12Z ensembles with a weak trough affecting the East at the weekend followed by resumption of heights up to day7/8 at least.

 

 

 

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What do this mean? thank you

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The question is where is the HP today?  Well not in the same place as yesterday according to the GFS.

 

The 500mb anomaly at 18z. gives the familiar story with the warm air Greenland to the UK with a fairly intense ridge just to the west of the UK and a weak ridge eastern Canada. The trough still in mid Atlantic.

 

Surface analysis.

 

Saturday through Tuesday.

 

High Pressure centred west then north west of the UK 1030mb.

 

Saturday

Wind NE with rain affecting all of the east coast. Temps quite warm in Midlands and south but cooler in Scotland. Variable cloud.

 

Sunday

 

Winds more easterly with rain confined to south east. Temps ( midday) mid to high 60s and variable cloud.

 

Monday and Tuesday.

 

Winds easterly with no precipitation and less cloud. Temps on Monday mid to high 60s in Midlands and south but cooler elsewhere on Monday but Tuesday brings some much cooler air into East Anglia, East Midlands and also Durham temps around mid to high 50s.

Edited by knocker
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Not sure it will be quite as dismal as that knocks!

Those down the eastern side of the uk know if they are likely to be affected by North Sea drich. In the se, the strength of any nor'easter remains very uncertain and the 00z suites so far swing the pendulum to a slacker flow than many expected to see.

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