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Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.


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Seems strange that the MetO MRF isn't supporting it's own model.

Hopefully ECM will fall in line with GFS tomorrow but to be honest no model output is that bad this evening, we are used to worse!

Andy

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Day 10 12z ensemble means from GEM and ECM both in good agreement with the scandi trough

uncomfortably close to the UK...

 

gem..  ecm..

 

..whereas gfs looks quite summery..

 

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Quite a cool weekend coming up from the ECM !

 

Pressure is relatively high so away from the coast maxima would hold up well, there'd just be a chilly breeze and chilly nights.

 

Day 10 12z ensemble means from GEM and ECM both in good agreement with the scandi trough

uncomfortably close to the UK...

 

gem..Posted Imagegens-21-1-240.png  ecm..Posted ImageEDM1-240.gif

 

..whereas gfs looks quite summery..

 

Posted Imagegens-21-1-240 (1).png

 

Personally i think people are looking at the problem all wrong. The problem is not in our area of the world, it's in how the vortex over the pole aligns which impacts what the jet does upstream.

 

Personally i think the Euro has a better grip on the Arctic but who knows.

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I think we will know what way this is going by 6am tomorrow.

Simply put, if the UKMO is still not going for any heights near or over Greenland in the mid range, then it simply isn't going to happen. 

GFS produces another fine hi resolution run with temperatures getting into the mid-twenties in places for most of the run. 80F possible on Thursday and Friday. 

 

BTW, Ireland would be a good destination for a summer break, looks very warm and summery over there, whatever model you look at.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Models at day 6

GFS

Posted Image

UK high

 

UKMO

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High centred over Ireland, again decent

 

GEM

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Better than previous runs with the high in greater control.

 

GFS ens

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Even at this timeframe the GFS ens want to keep high pressure firmly in charge with mean 850s above average (+8-10C). If the GFS ens are right then this high could stick around for a considerable amount of time.

 

Earliest signs of cool northerly setting up is from the GEM, which is now late next Tuesday into Wednesday. It's getting pushed back again.

Looks increasingly likely that we will have at least a week of fine, settled and warm weather, touching very warm at times.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Top of the morning folks and welcome to Sun Block weekend with the GFS.

 

The 500mb anomaly on Sunday has a swathe of warm air Greenland to Scandinavia with associated ridges along the eastern seaboard and the other over the UK both aligned SWS. Cold air still Arctic and Scandinavia eastwards.

 

The synoptic analysis is quite simple Saturday through Tuesday. On Saturday the HP is just NW of Ireland and thereafter centred over Scotland 1030mb. Giving partly cloudy conditions for first couple of days then clear skies and a very slack flow over all of the UK.

 

Temps are very warm. These are for 12z  Saturday mid 60s to 70F except N. Scotland. From then on gradually warming until Tuesday is positively hot with temps at midday low to mid 70s. Olez

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Edited by knocker
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Models at day 6

GFS

Posted Image

UK high

UKMO

Posted Image

High centred over Ireland, again decent

GEM

Posted Image

Better than previous runs with the high in greater control.

GFS ens

Posted Image

Even at this timeframe the GFS ens want to keep high pressure firmly in charge with mean 850s above average (+8-10C). If the GFS ens are right then this high could stick around for a considerable amount of time.

Earliest signs of cool northerly setting up is from the GEM, which is now late next Tuesday into Wednesday. It's getting pushed back again.

Looks increasingly likely that we will have at least a week of fine, settled and warm weather, touching very warm at times.

Morning,

I'm really encouraged by the models , they have been somewhat changeable recently , but iv never bought the Scandi trough/Greenland high idea effecting us as much as was forecast .

As in winter time things normally get watered down and this is the case again , obviously summer time is a different set up with the weak jet stream etc but I always thought things would temper down somewhat . The gfs picked up on this yesterday with keeping the high pressure more centrally based , and thankfully it looks like this could be the form horse next week , after the horrific winter we really could with a nice summer and since march really the weather has been quite kind to us . Quite optimistic of a nice second half to June with more emphasis on hot/humid Spanish plumes toward the last third with low pressure pushing north from bay of biscay bringing hot but thundery weather with it. But as ever time will tell .

Edited by Severe Siberian icy blast
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Some lovely warm even "very warm in the South" Summery charts showing from the GFS this morning for the end of the week, With High Pressure establishing it's-self smack bang over the UK .. 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Watching all this particularly closely at this all-important time of year.

 

Summer lovers like me will be seeing some encouraging signals, but of course its all about a run of runs all becoming closer in agreement over the coming days, rather than just one run right now,  and further confirmation of the HP trend will be needed.

 

J10, monitoring the last week of June for us on his blog and thread (plenty of high standard synoptic analysis in there folks, so its not just Glastonbury-relevant) has spotted some less encouraging signals for the last week of June from at least one longer term run, but again these are yet to be confirmed -- too soon to say ...

Edited by William of Walworth
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ECMWF does not show the High over the UK as per GFS, But keeps it just to the East. And the slack Northerly seem to still be showing it's hands.. The end of the run seems to show some very warm temps over the Arctic/Greenland, Pushing Lows South over the UK, Giving unsettled conditions.

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Polar Maritime
The last 2 charts are back to front..
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Much better ECM this morning, again the fine and settled conditions lasting into the start of week 2. 

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It then loses the plot whilst trying to break down this pattern. This is really starting to look like the case of models trying to pull the Scandi trough in the later stages of every run which then fails to verify. Exactly the same thing happened last July.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Good morning all,

 

A Summery outlook from all the 00z runs with pressure rising from the south across the UK through this week.

Very little energy across the Atlantic showing by the end of the week as the blocking high takes hold.

No heatwave yet with the surface flow around the top of the high off the Atlantic but warm enough for many i would think with low 20'c widely away from the far nw.

Once the showery activity dies away over the next day or so we could be looking at quite a dry and settled week to 10 days fairly widely.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_London_avn.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_Manchester_avn.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_Aberdeen_avn.png

 

post-2026-0-99418100-1402384676_thumb.pn

 

a nice looking gfs mean too at day 10.

 

 

 

 

 

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I just made a post that vanished. I assume it wasn't removed.

 

The ECM ops has the subtle difference with the HP to the west of the UK. A quick look though the looking glass at the ens monthly means suggesting a more westerly, unsettled flow down the line.

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Edited by knocker
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Some superb summery outputs this morning with UKMO finally dropping the idea of some cooler temperatures during the weekend

 

t96 850's on UKMO have not updated

 

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GFS also looking very good with the first hints of a breakdown not appearing until day 10 though the ensemble doesn't support the breakdown as I shall post below

 

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As I said above the ensemble isn't supporting a breakdown at day 10

 

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Brilliant outputs this morning!!ecm as I mentioned yesterday has this habit of being too amplified and this morning backs up my point as the high has pushed further east for this weekend!!come this evening I reckon it will look like the gfs and ukmo with the high slap bang im the middle of the uk!!

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Brilliant outputs this morning!!ecm as I mentioned yesterday has this habit of being too amplified and this morning backs up my point as the high has pushed further east for this weekend!!come this evening I reckon it will look like the gfs and ukmo with the high slap bang im the middle of the uk!!

i prefer the high to be slightly to the northwest say slap bang over N.Ireland would be ideal for dry sunny weather with low humidity

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Looking at the ECM ens five day 500mb anomaly means and then the T24o individual is quite interesting. It portrays the slow withdrawal of the Atlantic ridge northwest towards Greenland and the increasing influence of the colder air in the Atlantic. Much along the same lines as the weekly means were indicating. On the surface an indication of a westerly low pressure flow although the ens is not as bullish as the ops.

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Edited by knocker
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i prefer the high to be slightly to the northwest say slap bang over N.Ireland would be ideal for dry sunny weather with low humidity

 

Amen to that!!, It has been a miserable two months over here. Finally the models appear to be settling on a settled period of weather, and with a UK based high, the temperatures should be just right.

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The GEFS 0z mean indicating a much needed drier period is just about to begin and could last a while too with high pressure becoming slow moving across the UK bringing plentiful dry and pleasant conditions. Its exact position will affect where the best of the warmth will be experienced. The general idea seems to be that the E and SE will be best for warmth this week. On into the weekend the high will slip westwards shifting the warmest temperatures to the S and SW.

 

 

Makes a change to slow moving low pressure

 

Posted Image

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The ridge certainly holding the trough into week 2 . (For the time being)

Further ahead and weak anomolys make predictions difficult although currently weighted in favour of generally fine conditions prevailing.

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Euro and GFS now have the front sinking south by day 8 (though ECWMF gets slack before a washout), GEM has a lovely northerly.

 

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The GEM northerly has no support from the control run

 

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Op run

 

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