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Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.


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By the end of the week all parts would be settled and there is no indication at all for a northerly developing at the weekend on this run. Very interesting stuff.

 

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By the end of the week all parts would be settled and there is no indication at all for a northerly developing at the weekend on this run. Very interesting stuff.

 

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Yes indeed! But given the very poor modelling of the weather in the near term .its best ignored!! :closedeyes:

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Yes indeed! But given the very poor modelling of the weather in the near term .its best ignored!! :closedeyes:

Why should it be ignored, all the indications are for settled weather to develop next week.

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This is the closest the GEFS 12z mean gets to a northerly. In the mid term it has a much stronger ridge developing during next week as well compared to what the 6z had. Ties in nicely with the improved ECM.

 

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Yes indeed! But given the very poor modelling of the weather in the near term .its best ignored!! :closedeyes:

Of course that also includes the unsettled and cooler solutions too :)

 

ECM starts to pull the high west at day 9, but that again is out at the week 2 range. Modelling these weak high latitude ridges and Atlantic lows seem to create vastly different solutions even at time-frames where would usually call reliable.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Why should it be ignored, all the indications are for settled weather to develop next week.

Because ,the computer models have been abysmal in there output  for next week. If you want to believe there output in a weeks time, of course that's up to you... :nea:

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Of course that also includes the unsettled and cooler solutions too :)

 

ECM starts to pull the high west at day 9, but that again is out at the week 2 range. Modelling these weak high latitude ridges and Atlantic lows seem to create vastly different solutions even at time-frames where would usually call reliable.

Yes indeed ! To be honest the models are really struggling at the moment, I would say 5 days at the moment is well and truly FI.... :closedeyes:

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Yes indeed! But given the very poor modelling of the weather in the near term .its best ignored!! :closedeyes:

Shall we ignore the ones showing the scandi trough too then?

 

Both sides of the coin so to speak equally as valid tonight and very much a could go either way situation tonight but lots to be resolved. However certainly no washout or anything too out of the ordinary seems the theme. Pretty pleasant early summer weather likely. :)

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Looks like it's the ECM/GFS vs the UKMO/GEM tonight ECM suggesting a decent end to the week.

 

 

Not too surprised to see the influence of the Scandi trough reduce somewhat.

 

stick JMA with the GEM/UKMO camp. strange bedfellows on show tonight which shows the uncertainty for next weekend.  ecm spreads wlll reveal how much ens support there is for the other camp.

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The ECM 12z 500mb anomaly is not dissimilar to previous run or the latest GFS.. Warm air stretching from Greenland to the eastern Atlantic and the UK. A cold pool to the east of the UK and in western Atlantic.

 

This translates to a surface analysis giving the Azores high dominating the UK from Thursday through to Sunday with the low pressure relegated to Scandinavia eastwards. Generally speaking giving a NE/N flow with average or slightly above temps.

 

As you say ba we shall see.

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Edited by knocker
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The 'hot' news from the ECM spreads and anomolys is the return of an upper trough across the uk by day 10.

With weak anomolys showing recently, any solution for this timescale is reasonable.

edit: naefs spread support but not anomolys for this feature. again, expect anything and you wont go far wrong!

Edited by bluearmy
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I am getting a sense of deja vu when looking over the ECMWF projections of a high centred to the south-west and the posts raving about pleasant settled summery weather, as I recall that the same thing happened prior to the last week of June 2013.  In many northern and eastern parts of Britain that week was dry but cool and cloudy, and while I would expect a warmer sunnier version this time around due to the relatively limited Atlantic influence, the high centred to the SW always creates potential for moisture, cloud cover and suppressed daytime maxima to circulate around its north-eastern flank.  The GFS 18Z on the other hand has the high centred on top of the country which would make persistent cloud cover unlikely.

 

The often-reliable NOAA outlooks are not strongly supporting the anticyclonic scenario.  The 6-10 day outlook has above-average heights to the south and north of Britain, but near average over the British Isles, and the 8-14 day outlook suggests low pressure heading in from the west:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

 

My feeling for June has generally been for high pressure to head eastwards through the British Isles sometime around 16-22 June followed by a breakdown from the west, but the evidence for this from the current model outputs is not convincing.  In the near term, though, quite a "summery" outlook for many of us over the coming week with the trough mostly held out to the west and north-west of the British Isles and relatively high pressure over eastern Britain- nothing too spectacular temperature wise but typically a couple of degrees up on the long-term average.

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Thus far, the gem and gfs have swapped places re the upper trough as the gem chucks out a real hothouse run. ukmo consistent so we await ecm and wonder if consistency should be where we place our trust for the time being ??

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As others have said, some uncertainty, but the Scandi trough  has been favorite on the GEFS for a while but there has always been a cluster similar to ECM op. The latter continues to throw out a warm solution compared to its mean, though it is edging towards the ridge being further west. Last night another example of the op being one of the warmer solutions (from as early as D4).

 

Last nights GFS 12z was balanced with the Control going for the Scandi trough.

 

This morning both GFS op and Control going with the Icelandic ridge/Scandi trough for week 2, so again the UK on the periphery of the two flows.

 

Last night 33% of the GEFS went with a UK high, this morning about 20% (D7).

 

All agree from T72 till around T144 a pressure rise in the south giving 2-3 days (best days:Thursday & Friday), down here of fine warm weather:

 

London ENS show that N/S divide further highlighted by rainfall totals the next 8 days. Over 50mm for Scotland.

 

GEM remains solid with the UK high but the mean looks less certain.

 

UKMO going with the Icelandic ridge at D6.

 

GFS on the control after D10 maintains lower heights in N.Europe and keeps a weak Atlantic ridge in the Iceland/Greenland region. The op flattens the pattern and we have a slack zonal flow through the UK.

 

So no sign of any strong Summer pattern yet; June looks like it will be an average month, though just above average more likely than just below for temps, more so for the south.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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GFS at 00z for next weekend.

 

The 500mb anomaly has cold pool over the Arctic troughing down to Scandinavia and points east. Warm air dominating Greenland and the Azores high playing a key role in the eastern Atlantic and the UK giving a westerly flow.

 

This is not conducive to a surface analysis that makes good reading in the middle of June.

 

Friday

 

Low positioned NW of Scotland 1010mb giving a NW/W flow over the UK and pretty damp in the north. Temps around 60F in north but mid 60s in England.

 

Saturday

 

The low pressure to the east has an extended trough affecting the east of the UK and the high to the south west of Ireland the south and west. A weak southerly prevails but very wet in north. Temps around 60F except in the SE.

 

Sunday

 

The high 1033mb now north west of  Ireland giving a south westerly flow over the UK. Mainly dry but the temps again no great shakes low 60s at best.

 

Bring on the ECM.

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The ecm also more bullish re the upper scandi trough hanging back across the uk as we head through next weekend. I assume we will now see the models playing around with how much the atlantic upper ridge pushes this upper trough further ne and just how cool it does become after the warmth of this upcoming week. thus far, the momentum is all with the trough but history tells us that the ridge may well fight back as verification approaches.

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the EC version is the closest to the NOAA 6-10 so is perhaps more likely to validate than the GFS version. That would also be my take on closely watching all 3 every day.

 

i hear you john, but the ecm 00z seems to have shifted towards the gfs, taking a little longer, but a northerly courtesy of high to our west would be more in line with the gfs anomaly. i expect todays ecm anomaly to shift towards the gfs.

 

By the end of the week all parts would be settled and there is no indication at all for a northerly developing at the weekend on this run. Very interesting stuff.

 

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eh?.... there IS a northerly on that chart for the uk.... ok not a strong one but the uk is bathed in a northerly draft.

more recent charts though do give us a northerly, the gfs by saturday, the ecm by monday. now its not a northerly per se that bothers me..... it what happens to the ridge to our west afterwards (ok atm it hasnt even built, so it might not happen as current outputs suggest, im working with current outputs that might change).

i feel we are fast approaching the critical period of summer, where the bulk of summers weather pattern will be determined, lest face it, in a short 8 weeks time itll be all over (read my sig for 'summer') so if anything decent is going to happen, the signes should be becoming manifest in the models very soon.

one option is for the western ridge to be assimulated with the greenland high, thus forcing the jet stream south and directly at us..

 

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IF this comes into reality, that would be bad news, as a pattern emerging like that would pretty much spoil summer in terms of prolonged settled, dry sunny spells. atm its only one faint option in deep fi...

for now lets hope the expected high is closer to the uk, and when it moves, it moves eastward!

Edited by mushymanrob
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Thus far, the gem and gfs have swapped places re the upper trough as the gem chucks out a real hothouse run. ukmo consistent so we await ecm and wonder if consistency should be where we place our trust for the time being ??

The major question for for me when and where the high near the UK and the high near Greenland meet up, no real agreement on that and slight adjustments seem to swing output later on from cool to hot and back again. Drier than normal conditions would be the only call I could make at the moment. Temperature wise? Not a clue.

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The ECM anomaly pushes the trough much further east and strengthens the warm air in the eastern Atlantic This gives a much stronger high pressure picture re. the surface with the Azores high just west of Ireland giving a slack northerly flow over the UK with temps around average or just above.

Edited by knocker
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ECMWF & GFS this morning is showing some rather pleasant Summery weather towards Mid-Month. With Heights pushing just West of the UK, Beyond that and the GFS continues to show cooler and more unsettled pattern. With the jet pushing South allowing a slack Northerly of sorts... I must say the GFS has been very consistent with this.

 

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Edited by Polar Maritime
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Lovey ECM again this morning with plenty of fine and warm weather on offer from the 2nd half of this week

 

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UKMO is better than last night but not perfect yet with that trough still close by for Scotland & the east next weekend UKMO ends with the high winning out though the east would still be prone to some showers

 

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GFS shows some unseasonably cold weather next weekend, not pleasant. ! 

Hi, could you please put your location on your Avatar please as its good to know where everyone lives. ! Many thanks...

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