Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.

[Captain Shortwave]

It does look like a return to normal summer conditions into week 2 with the jet running through northern Britain. Fairly dry in the south and warm at times. More unsettled further north. 

[IDO]

ECM and GEM now in line with the GEFS for a N/S split after D5.

 

ECM D6:  D10:

 

GEM D6:    D10: 

 

ECM Glasgow forecast temps:  Cooler on average.

 

Last night's ECM London suggests slightly above average as a whole for D6-10:  

 

The GFS op this morning goes with the Icelandic ridge, not a shock as yesterday there was about 33% support for this development:

 

This will bring down cooler air: 

 

Again has support in the GEFS but looks the worse case scenario according to the London ENS: 

 

The mean looks safer: 

 

After D10 on the GEFS there is no continuity so I would have low confidence on anything after about D7. NOAA sum it up: "FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: MUCH BELOW AVERAGE, 1 OUT OF 5,

DUE TO A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS, AND WEAK INDICATIONS AMONGTHE VARIOUS TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS."

[Polar Maritime]

Yes a N/S split is looking likely as i mentioned the other day, Also the GFS has been hinting cooler conditions for a while now from around the 16th with a slack Northerly still showing as heights push up into Greenland.. The ECMWF on the other hand shows a more Westerly flow off the Atlantic.

 

Edited June 6, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[johnholmes]

I would favour the W'ly type upper flow which NOAA 6-10 showed last evening, the EC_GFS outputs are far from consistent with another version from each of them this morning.

links below

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

and the NOAA last evening showing the most likely upper air pattern in my view, 6-10 and out into their 8-14 chart, again the most likely in an overall pattern over the later 6 day period.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

[johnholmes]

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/12Z/ - This is the main page.

 

thanks Julian although it is not the one I normally used, has anyone got that one please?

[ANYWEATHER]

I noticed the Met-office are using "Variable" weather in there updates. and in fairness I think that's a good word to describe the weather for next week. It must be said that the models have been abysmal this week in there predictions for next week, Rollercoaster ride about sums it up! I still think any detail for next  week is still unclear....

[knocker]

Regarding the next weekend the GFS and ECM upper anomaly are still at odds but the surface analysis is pretty similar. I'm afraid I had a senior moment during my earlier post which i have corrected.

Edited June 6, 2014 by knocker

[Cloud 10]

ECM still top of the pile  at day 5 with its operational and ensemble output.

 

 

Day 10 ensemble mean miles ahead of the others.

 

[Summer Sun]

This mornings ECM ensemble continues to go for a steady rise in pressure from the south during next week by day 10 the high starts to move away but for England and wales pressure doesn't drop below 1017mb

 

 

The GFS ensemble also shows pressure rising during next week

 

[IDO]

Yes, of late, ECM modelling has consistently nailed this current plume and the others forecast to follow it, 

 

 

I think what I and others have against the ECM op is its propensity to over emphasis heights. This gave us a few days ago a heat wave run and only yesterday (0z) gave us late 20s in the SE for 3 plus days. All the runs were outliers from D7-10 compared to the mean temps. Of course in the winter it gave us several non-easterlies.

 

The statistics consistently back this up with Height bias topping 20 at times according to NOAA. Latest 500hpa D10 bias:

 

 

 

GFS does what you would expect, over does the heights then under does them so its bias averages out. ECM has a clear bias towards over doing the NH heights.

 

Another measure; Murphy's Mean Square Error verifications has both models very closely matched at D10:

 

 

So yes ECM may look good on some verification stats but you know the saying; lies, damned lies & statistics.

[johnholmes]

ECM still top of the pile  at day 5 with its operational and ensemble output.

 

cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.pngcor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX (1).png

 

Day 10 ensemble mean miles ahead of the others.

 

cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

 

 

could someone give me the link to these stats please, see above requests

many thanks

John

[IDO]

could someone give me the link to these stats please, see above requests

many thanks

John

 

Hi

 

The one I use is: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

 

Hope that helps.

[johnholmes]

Hi

 

The one I use is: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

 

Hope that helps.

 

thanks but no, the same one as J10 gave me, but not the one I've got used to using, I'll keep searching but thanks.

[IDO]

thanks but no, the same one as J10 gave me, but not the one I've got used to using, I'll keep searching but thanks.

 

 

You didn't want the older version?  http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/STATS.html

[Gael_Force]

There is also the WMO model verification stats - hosted by ECMWF.  Menu in left margin.

 

http://apps.ecmwf.int/wmolcdnv/

 

I have to admit the workings are a bit beyond this atrophied brain but seems to include a lot more parameters and model suites.

[johnholmes]

You didn't want the older version?  http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/STATS.html

 

the very one-many thanks

There is also the WMO model verification stats - hosted by ECMWF.  Menu in left margin.

 

http://apps.ecmwf.int/wmolcdnv/

 

I have to admit the workings are a bit beyond this atrophied brain but seems to include a lot more parameters and model suites.

 

not seen that one before but will have a look this evening-thank you

[summer blizzard]

Out to day 8 and the models are vaguely similar to last night. All 3 drop a trough into Scandinavia and all 3 shift the core of high pressure west of the UK meaning that we get a settled picture but with cool air leaking into the UK.

 

[IDO]

Mild in the SE tonight and by 7am 14c uppers:  18c in places: 

 

Looks like early morning for the SE for the storm potential: 

 

The forecast temp for London tomorrow afternoon has downgraded 2-3c: 

 

As is usual the more volatile atmosphere has shifted slightly east.

 

Current for 2pm tomorrow:  Yesterday's: 

 

The Midlands to the NW most risk of accumulated rainfall: 

 

Monday again the SE glanced by higher uppers: 

 

The GFS 06z for D10 still looking fluid. The Op is more aggressive with heights, the Control more progressive with lowering the heights:

 

 

 

The op ends promisingly for another plume:  Obvious caveats apply. 

 

The spread on the London ENS in FI highlight the uncertainty: 

 

Ditto ECM ens: 

 

Nice to see a warm cluster showing up so potential at least.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 6, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Summer Sun]

UKMO continues to show a gradual improvement next week with high pressure starting to build by midweek, 850's at t120 have not updated at the time of posting

 

 

GFS also shows pressure rising

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Nice GFS run, temperatures in the low to mid 20s all of next week with 80F possible on Monday and Thursday in the south east. UKMO does looks like being not so warm as the Sceuro ridge breaks down more quickly.

[Summer Sun]

Looking at t144 GEM and UKMO both agree on low pressure over Scandinavia

 

 

What they can't agree on is how far west it may come UKMO prefers to keep the UK settled but fresher than of late especially so in Scotland it also has the +4 850's slightly further north

 

GEM has the +4 850's slightly further south but its much more unsettled with the low pressure system much further west which gives rain for most parts

 

Then we have GFS which takes a different route with high pressure for the far south and low pressure crossing Scotland, 850's are also higher

 

 

Over to ECM now to see what it comes up with at t144

 

Well ECM seems to be closer to GFS for pressure over Scandi at however pressure is a lot high for us unlike GFS beyond t144 it looks fairly settled and warm for England and wales though the far north of Scotland could be prone to something slightly more unsettled at times

 

Edited June 6, 2014 by Summer Sun

[summer blizzard]

As you were from this morning from the GFS and GEM, both essentially go for cool but settled via a northerly to our east. ECWMF is a little funkier as it tries to collapse heights over Greenland.

 

[knocker]

Regarding next weekend still no 500mb anomaly conformity between the GFs and ECM.

 

The latter has weakish warm zones running Canada around to Scandinavia and Russia with a warm pool in the eastern Atlantic covering the UK. with a cold trough mid Atlantic. This allows high Pressure to build in the Atlantic and the east over the UK with an isolated low stuck south east  of Greenland. Temps in the UK hovering around the 70s.

Edited June 6, 2014 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

Regarding next weekend still no 500mb anomaly conformity between the GFs and ECM.

 

The latter has weakish warm zones running Canada around to Scandinavia and Russia with a warm pool in the eastern Atlantic covering the UK. with a cold trough mid Atlantic. This allows high Pressure to build in the Atlantic and the east over the UK with an isolated low stuck south east  of Greenland. Temps in the UK hovering around the 70s.

Yes no strong sign of which way this will go even at D6 - some areas of the UK favoured for a good end to next week from the south up, but how far north? Beyond that, hints remain that northerly influences may appear - but northerlies, more than any type, seem to disappear as T0 approaches - I think we need to see a stronger Greenland ridge and more consistency before even beginning to think along these lines. If the northerly idea does fade away, there's a chance that fine/warm weather might persist in the south for some time. 

[Milhouse]

Temps would be rising towards the end of next week if the ECM is anything to go by. Perhaps rising into the very warm category before the high slips out into the Atlantic as low pressure topples down, albeit very slowly, from the north. At day 10 most of the country is still fairly warm and settled. GEM in FI has the summer equivalent of a bartlett with direct northerlies bringing upper air temps of below 0c. Not what we need to be seeing as we approach mid summer.

 

A rather good chart from ECM for next Friday. Dry and very warm for most.