Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 6z suggesting many eastern parts will stay dry till late on Saturday.

 

 

 

Given the humidity thats likely to be around showers / thunderstorms could crop up at any time during Saturday the beeb are suggesting the greatest risk will be Saturday by Sunday they expect the shower risk to diminish with more in the way of sunshine.

 

Could be Friday evening before we can nail down the areas at greatest risk

Edited June 4, 2014 by Summer Sun

[mushymanrob]

the current noaa anomaly charts might not support the ecm now.... but for several days they did support pressure building in from the east, maybe when todays are issued they might revert back, thus giving the ecm some much needed support.

[Vorticity0123]

EDIT: As the post placed initially wasn't really model output discussion related (i.e. it was more about the development of the synoptic situation than about model discussion), it can be found in the in depth model summary section. See link below:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76236-in-depth-model-discussion-and-summaries/page-9#entry2980955

Edited June 4, 2014 by Vorticity0123

[johnholmes]

the current noaa anomaly charts might not support the ecm now.... but for several days they did support pressure building in from the east, maybe when todays are issued they might revert back, thus giving the ecm some much needed support.

 

hi mushy

not enough continuity between the 3 to really be confident in what they show, currently NOAA 6-10 and GFS are closest with EC less so.

[johnholmes]

EDIT: As the post placed initially wasn't really model output discussion related (i.e. it was more about the development of the synoptic situation than about model discussion), it can be found in the in depth model summary section. See link below:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76236-in-depth-model-discussion-and-summaries/page-9#entry2980955

 

 

well worth reading folks-quite simply excplained what we have and what GFS suggests over the next few days and reasons, good learning for new folk

no V is not paying me to write this!

[StormChaseUK]

Looks like GFS may, just may be coming into line with ECM

[Man With Beard]

GFS 12Z thinks about prolonging the heat in the SE but by Tuesday it decides against - for now:

UKMO definitely thinking about it too, probably a bit more?

[Summer Sun]

UKMO keeps the warmest 850's for the SE after the initial burst of warm air this Friday and Saturday with Saturday looking particularly warm and humid with some thunderstorms around

 

 

By Sunday the warmest air moves to mainland Europe but the UK will still see some respectable temps with high teens in the north and low 20's in the south, its should also be a sunnier day for many though the odd shower / thunderstorm can't be ruled out

 

 

850s are not available for Monday currently but it looks fairly settled for most

 

 

By Tuesday the 850's begin to rise once more for the south highs here could be around the mid 20's with high teens / low 20's the further north you go

 

 

GFS still going for a pressure rise during next week

 

Edited June 4, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

Nice to see the UKMO finally agree with the other models with respect to Saturday, hopefully those forecast temperatures should go up a bit now.

The model output is like a leaky pipe at the moment and we can't seem to get agreement on anything. The GFS shifts a little and looks pretty decent in high resolution.

Then of course the GEM pulls this stunt.

Leave it 6 months please

 

Starting to get the feeling that the models don't like heat blocks.

Edited June 4, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Cap't the models struggle as much with an upcoming heat block as much as a cold one, (not forgetting the GFS's Westerly bias ..)  The GEM is not far of what the GFS was showing for the 18th on this mornings run, only with no heights over the Pole.. Very jumpy synoptic's currently until this plume has been resolved over the week-end.. 

 

Edited June 4, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[mushymanrob]

hi mushy

not enough continuity between the 3 to really be confident in what they show, currently NOAA 6-10 and GFS are closest with EC less so.

 

hi john

yeah i know that, but i was making the point that recent anomaly charts, especially the noaa 8-14 dayer had the euro high edging westward which wouldnt make the current ecm seem so outrageous!i dont expect the current ecm will varify, it is likely to be an outlier and not a herald of pattern change.

 

however, the gfs (and ukmo) out to t144 are in pretty good agreement, and the gfs evolution through next week with a building azores ridge heading our way and building, isnt anything to complain about! in fact a gradual warming up and drying out would be very welcome. the current ecm would be very oppressively humid, not liked by many heat fans let alone everyone else.so one way or another after a stormy spell on saturday, its looking quite pleasant, with a realistic chance of some summer heat.

[Polar Maritime]

So one way or another after a stormy spell on saturday, its looking quite pleasant, with a realistic chance of some summer heat.

 

Once again Mushy that sums up the Models this evening perfectly ! 

Edited June 4, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM best of the lot at day 5

Could be at it again.

In the end it just ends up another flash in the pan. This run is very much on the ens so warm with plenty of decent summer weather with temperatures in the low-mid twenties.

Edited June 4, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

ECM still going for the warm air to move northwards again on Monday

 

 

Warmest air restricted to the east at t144 just confirming the 00z run was off on one

 

Edited June 4, 2014 by Summer Sun

[SMU]

ECM 120

 

HOT in the FAR SE- the heat desperately trying to push west

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014060412/ECM1-120.GIF?04-0

 

S

[mushymanrob]

looks to me like the 12z ecm is following the gfs's evolution so far.i dont care where the 'summer weather' comes from, europe or the displaced azores high...

[Captain Shortwave]

Dry, sunny and warm. Everybody's happy

Temperatures would be rising to end the week, getting into the high twenties in the south

Edited June 4, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[mushymanrob]

well the heatwave on the 00z ecm might not have come into reality, and it was a long shot, but the 00z and gfs have come into some good agreement that high pressure will build throughout next week from the southwest... now thats logical and feasible, and could lead to a stronger , longer spell of warm sunny weather. (i tend to think that great spells come out of gradual build ups, not ones that appear suddenly.)

[Summer Sun]

Really liking the way ECM is going for next week with high pressure still on course to build along with the warmth

 

Edited June 4, 2014 by Summer Sun

[knocker]

A quick look at Saturday. front much as expected west Midlands. In these parts we'll be in the cooler air early.

 

[PolarWarsaw]

Dry, sunny and warm. Everybody's happy

Temperatures would be rising to end the week, getting into the high twenties in the south

 

Not everybody, a mix of some big thunderstorms inlcuded with sun and heat would be nice. Just day of endless sweating and not being able to sleep at night doesn't cut the mustard for a lot of people.

[summer blizzard]

Nice to see the UKMO finally agree with the other models with respect to Saturday, hopefully those forecast temperatures should go up a bit now.

The model output is like a leaky pipe at the moment and we can't seem to get agreement on anything. The GFS shifts a little and looks pretty decent in high resolution.

Then of course the GEM pulls this stunt.

Leave it 6 months please

 

Starting to get the feeling that the models don't like heat blocks.

 

The problems not really the 'heat block' but how the models struggle to handle heights over the Arctic and subsequent placement of lows in the Atlantic. To make things worse the jet stream is very weak so the placement of the lows become more complex.

[shaky]

Very good ecm this evening with the azores high building rapidly after the plume!!also gfs has more or less come into line with ecm/ukmo around 96-120 hour mark!!could be looking at temps getting close to the mid twenties a lot in the next ten days!!

[MR EXTREMES]

ECM 120

 

HOT in the FAR SE- the heat desperately trying to push west

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014060412/ECM1-120.GIF?04-0

 

S

indeed steve and futher on the ecm wants to pump heights north and northwest in the later stages , all models are close in there over all output but the gefs also is almost identical to the ecm , so build of heat not out of the question, ecm would certainly maintain heights over the uk . even if this were to not verify then we will certainly other than the gem be on the warm humid side across most of the uk, although the gem get excited and throws a deepish low pressure system in scandi area being nw to north flow ,although the gem looks rather out of sync with the rest.

 

chart of the day ecm 

[SMU]

Yes, we do have a bit more model agreement tonight- Weekend plume hitting the SE, before being squeezed to the East, pushing back west at day 5 into the SE - but again at day 6 some residual energy pushing towards the UK means that initially the second plume may get squeezed east again, or just hold station over the SE with some fireworks.

Post that though a more significant plume of high heights moving North-

 

In summary - the heat oscillating across the SE from the near continent & as time goes by into next week that becoming more pronounced & moving WNW. -towards midweek.

Some fireworks in the mix at times.

 

Steady as she goes.

 

EDIT:the JMA supports the minimal movement east of the atlantic at day 6

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php 

Edited June 4, 2014 by Steve Murr