Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.

[knocker]

Regarding the ECM 12z yesterday if it's of interest.

 

From Ryan N. Maue

 

ECMWF 12z yesterday had a catastrophic SST data failure during model data assimilation.

Edited June 29, 2014 by knocker

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM like the GFS is trending to keep any widespread unsettled weather as short-lived as possible. Unfortunately it seems like this period could correlate with next weekend.

On the other hand like I said earlier this scenario seems to exist one of a band of rain sinking south-eastwards with the rainband weakening the further south east it gets.

ECM is also in week 2 suggesting another Azores ridge

It probably won't build as far north as this, though I wouldn't be surprised if week 2 ends up being similar to the coming week. Plenty of fine weather with a little rain at times, warm too with the south east fairing best and the north west vice versa.

Edited June 29, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[ANYWEATHER]

Some traditional summer weather coming up, but look at the unreliable timeframe of T+168 and T+192 and the Ecm is picking up on some tropical development coming out of the Eastern Seabored of north America at this time range, Gfs really shows no development...Interesting...    

This may well add to some confusion in the model outputs later this week....

Edited June 29, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[J10]

Regarding the ECM 12z yesterday if it's of interest.

 

From Ryan N. Maue

 

ECMWF 12z yesterday had a catastrophic SST data failure during model data assimilation.

 

I always hated the Borg

 

To me it looks as if there is decent weather coming for the next few days, more especially  the south.

 

With NOAA (28th June runs) indicating a trough for day 6-10 and more of a ridge to the west for days 8-14, perhaps a brief unsettled  period as indicated in the models may come off towards next weekend, but it will be interesting to see if the NOAA outputs  later today  remain on the same theme.

[Summer Sun]

ECM ens showing a slow rise in pressure from the south west from day 8

 

[knocker]

The Countryfile forecast was a little coy regarding Friday/Sat using 'uncertain' at this stage. The ECM ens take on it.

 

[summer blizzard]

As you were from the models out to day 8, the Euro, GFS and GEM all show largely unsettled conditions. GFS is the worst of the bunch..

 

[Captain Shortwave]

As you were from the models out to day 8, the Euro, GFS and GEM all show largely unsettled conditions. GFS is the worst of the bunch..

 

Most of England and Wales is forecast to be dry all the way until Friday at least, so how that can be classed as unsettled defies logic 

 

Similar story from the morning suite. Wednesday and Thursday look like cracking days with temperatures climbing into the mid-twenties. Friday sees a front pushing south east though the timing on this is still uncertain. Same with the weekend, likely there will just be a few showers before any convective activity is quashed by the next ridge of high pressure pushing in from the west.

[knocker]

I would agree with that up to a point. Thw GFS has Saturday a very wet day with the front over the UK and generally unsettled after that. It all rather depends on the how much influence the ridge from the SW ends up with.

Edited June 30, 2014 by knocker

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I would agree with that up to a point. Thw GFS has Saturday a very wet day with the front over the UK and generally unsettled after that. It all rather depends on the how much influence the ridge from the SW ends up with.

But before Saturday we have a week of settled warm weather , so the outlook summery has to be , a nice warm sunny week with the very strong sun . Unsure there after due to it been post t120 , so far I have experienced an amazing June with only Friday and Saturday just gone been unsettled , replaced my yet more sunny weather which is continuing into July . Yet only last week it was looking distinctly unsettled with a 36hr glancing ridge quickly blown away by the jet onslaught. It looks to me the classic north South divide will continue with nothing to suggest to me anything else. Edited June 30, 2014 by Polar Maritime
To remove off topic material.

[knocker]

snip

Edited June 30, 2014 by knocker

[SteveB]

But before Saturday we have a week of settled warm weather , so the outlook summery has to be , a nice warm sunny week with the very strong sun . Unsure there after due to it been post t120 , so far I have experienced an amazing June with only Friday and Saturday just gone been unsettled , replaced my yet more sunny weather which is continuing into July . Yet only last week it was looking distinctly unsettled with a 36hr glancing ridge quickly blown away by the jet onslaught.

Why does so many people become so obsessed with post 7 day weather that rarely comes into fruition ? It looks to me the classic north South divide will continue with nothing to suggest to me anything else.

Totally agree, looking forward to 4-5 day's of lovely summer weather.

 

I to don't get this deal regarding day8 onwards, it hardly ever pans out as forecast, sure if at day 8 it say's it's going to turn unsettled each time, then eventually it's going to get it right. But every time I look beyond day 7-8 in the models it seems to want us to go into Autumn with temps 15-17c, unlikely to happen, but as I say, if you call it enough times......

 

Anyway, as I said, another good week of usable weather coming up

[Summer Sun]

Once this weekends low gets out the way its very possible now we'll see another settled warm spell developing

 

 

Before that though we have to get through the weekend looks like seeing a mix of rain and showers intercepted by sunny spells

 

 

However ECM suggests the rain will be patchy

 

Edited June 30, 2014 by Summer Sun

[knocker]

Snip

Edited June 30, 2014 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

Any-one can discuss any model no matter how many days out it is, Some are looking for the next breakdown/pattern change or continuation, So let's all respect that as it's all relevant to this thread and keep personal comments "personal".

Please continue,Many Thanks.

PM.

[Yarmy]

Too far out to be taken seriously, but a nice looking chart on the 06z:

 

[phil nw.]

A decent looking Summer pattern is developing by the looks of it.

Yes we do have the promise of a brief interruption around the weekend as weakening fronts push SE but overall the ens means look set pretty fair over the next 10-14 days as the Azores high becomes more prominent.

 

As ever the south and east will do better this week but later on in week 2 the fair conditions could well push further north across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m10.gif

maybe only the far north seeing much in the way of frontal activity.

 

Should be plenty of fine and warm weather about either side of the coming weekend if modeling verifies that's for sure.

[mushymanrob]

hmmm....i see the gfs and ecm suggest high pressure building in next week and producing a pretty  warm / hot settled spell.however, until the anomaly charts suggest this is plausible id caution any hopes of this becoming reality. the noaa 8-14 dayer has the high stuck to our west, low to our east, until these change radically to support what the gfs anom shows, then it aint gonna happen.unfortunately.

[DTHFCJ]

hmmm....i see the gfs and ecm suggest high pressure building in next week and producing a pretty  warm / hot settled spell.however, until the anomaly charts suggest this is plausible id caution any hopes of this becoming reality. the noaa 8-14 dayer has the high stuck to our west, low to our east, until these change radically to support what the gfs anom shows, then it aint gonna happen.unfortunately.

Met office seem pretty confident ref settling down somewhat after the weekend....i would say no chart is a given that includes the noaa and the height anomaly charts imo although i do agree with you somewhat.. the 500 height anomalies John H swears by are my first port of call in the mornings and i find them very good even better when they agree!!......for 3 days etc running..

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif grrrrrrrr ruddy typical

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/test8.gif

 

also as Phil up top says the esm means are really quite decent

Edited June 30, 2014 by DTHFCJ

[Captain Shortwave]

hmmm....

i see the gfs and ecm suggest high pressure building in next week and producing a pretty  warm / hot settled spell.

however, until the anomaly charts suggest this is plausible id caution any hopes of this becoming reality. the noaa 8-14 dayer has the high stuck to our west, low to our east, until these change radically to support what the gfs anom shows, then it aint gonna happen.

unfortunately.

There will probably be some change today as there will be manual input plus the inclusion of the ECM into the final analysis. Unfortunately again with this I think the output was being skewed by the constant UK troughing outputs from the GEM.

Oh what a surprise

Completely different to the UKMO and GFS at day 6 with the low stalling a dropping towards the UK before being cut off. In the end even on 

that model pressure does start to rise from the south west into week 2.

I must say the anomalies from the ECM and GFS along with the metoffice thoughts suggests that the weather won' be too bad through the first half of July, weather any heatwave will occur is another matter, I will side for warmer and drier than average if on the unspectacular side until there is reasonable ensemble agreement on a significant build of pressure from the Azores as opposed to transient ridging. 

Edited June 30, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

ECM is slower to get the high in this evening probably going to be towards the end of next week realistically for an improvement for most

 

[IDO]

A few nice days coming up for the south though today was supposed to be nice and it was quite cool, cloudy and showery.

 

The forecast fall in pressure for the weekend looks to be firming up. It is clear on the London ensembles:  

 

The GEFS have been run to run been slowing the return of the Azores high and the mean pressure is now taking four days to recover from below 1005 to above 1017. The trough showing some fight. This is also apparent on other models. Ecm at D9 now delaying any pressure rise:

 

 As is GEM: 

 

This is no surprise as both ECM and GFS ops continue with their positive HP bias in the NH: 

 

It means that FI charts nearly always downgrade higher pressure and obviously more relevant if it is forecast to be in the UK locale.

 

So no confidence that we will see a UK HP anomaly at the moment but I do not expect week 2 to be too bad, probably just average with the Azores high ridging temporarily so the south warmer at times. No washout either. The latest Chinese anomaly seems to represent this view:

 

 

Hopefully it will improve for later July.

Edited June 30, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[IDO]

This makes me smile, we have now above average heights over the UK with the scandi trough moved eastwards on the CPC NOAA 8-14 day output, implying a greater chance of drier conditions:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

 

 

D6-10 Looks on the ball:  

[ANYWEATHER]

Strangely day 10 [T+240] both ecm and gfs kind of agree, at that very unreliable time frame, Tropical storms from north America will add confusion to the computer models post this weekend....The jury is still out....    

[ANYWEATHER]

Looks like a standoff between the Azores high and Scandi low from Ecm and gfs ....at day ten. Those wanting a heatwave please don't look...    

Edited June 30, 2014 by ANYWEATHER