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Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.


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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

12Z charts from GFS, ECM and UKMO all quite different really by T144. GFS keeps a weak ridge over us with frontal activity mainly confined to the north (thundery outbreaks further south possible) - still warm. UKMO loses all heights and looks set for a longer period of unsettled weather. ECM in the middle - a small depression makes it through blocks to the north and the south - maybe unsettled for a couple of days but no prolonged breakdown.

So while an end to the anticyclonic dominance looks likely, no clear way ahead from next weekend just yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

It does look like a breakdown will occur at the end of the week, but the details look very messy. UKMO looks way too clean and removes heights north of the UK. ECM shows how complications can occur if the high to the north links up with either the ridge to the south east or south west of the UK. This could delay things or sods law stall low pressure over the UK.

 

Beyond that, I will admit that the outlook looks changeable, but rather surprised at the hints of drier and very warm conditions potentially developing into mid-July from the metoffice update.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Temperatures look like holding up next week for most It doesn't look like we'll see a great deal of rain so hopefully not must disruption for Wimbledon during the opening week

 

Monday looks like seeing the most of the showers developing in the afternoon as the heat builds

 

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Bar the odd shower Tuesday looks drier though temperatures will be down slightly on Monday for some parts

 

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Wednesday sees temperatures fairly similar to those of Tuesday possible some more persistent rain moving into Ireland and North west Scotland

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By Thursday temperatures begin to rise for the south the best of the driest weather continues to be in the east with the west prone to some rain / showers

 

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Friday has temperatures into the mid 20's for the south still dry for most of the south but some rain could develop for the north and west

 

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And finally next Saturday this could be the first troublesome day for Wimbledon with showers developing during the afternoon temps in the mid 20's for the south so possibly a humid day

 

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Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

The GFS is showing a very unsettled wet/cool N/W flow by the start of next Month. With heavy Snowfall over Southern Greenland.. All FI of course.

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

The GFS is showing a very unsettled wet/cool N/W flow by the start of next Month. With heavy Snowfall over Southern Greenland.. All FI of course.

 

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Hi polar maritime, whilst your statement is quite correct in what the gfs is showing , it's extremely unlikely a gfs chart from deep fairy tale land will verify , the last week we'v seen very few t144 charts get any where close let alone something that's over 300 hours away.

For me June has even a fantastic month , despite lots of people forecasting it to be wash out .

Lots of sunshine , 2/3 thunderstorms , and lots of warm temps in early 20's . Next week looking a week of transition in my opinion to a more westerly type pattern , no wash out , no northerly plunge , just weather breaking somewhat but pleasant by day and warm in Sunshine.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Hi polar maritime, whilst your statement is quite correct in what the gfs is showing , it's extremely unlikely a gfs chart from deep fairy tale land will verify ,

 

That's why I stated FI, But the theme is unsettled and at times cool.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

That's why I stated FI, But the theme is unsettled and at times cool.

from the end of the coming week, usual caveats apply.

Posted Image

A chart like this at day 5 doesn't fill me with much confidence, as I stated before that high to the north could stop the Atlantic low in its tracks just about anywhere. 

 

ECM mean is pretty much useless from day 6. Looking at clusters will be your best bet there.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

From the end of the coming week, usual caveats apply.

A chart like this at day 5 doesn't fill me with much confidence, as I stated before that high to the north could stop the Atlantic low in its tracks just about anywhere. 

 

Yes Cap't, Some interesting Model watching coming up over the coming days, To see how things resolve.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

Very  hard at the moment to forecast beyond 5 days ,each day seems to bring a prolonging of the dry and sunny weather .the charts a couple of days ago were going for more of a change later next week ,but it does look like the atlantic will be on the attack so possibilitys afoot for a possible showery spell but nothing yet concrete .i have been tuning in to our fantastic Net weather forum and have enjoyed all the input from posters ,all the best to all ,and as the nights now gradually pull in heres to a memorable [winter forum ]cheers from legritter . :yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

compare the subtle changes on the latest Fax chart for Wednesday with the one for 24 hours ago.

I do believe that the subsequent charts will follow this idea, slightly lower pressure values in the same chart areas and a more Atlantic look rather than the high to the north blocking that flow.

Also fits with the 500mb guidance as I see it.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Heights stronger over Greenland on this GFS run, Pushing Lows West on a more Southerly flank. And Jet heading over the UK.

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Further into the run and the unsettled theme continues.

 

Posted Image

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

Looking at the ecm ens*mean, I note nothing overly warm on the way. Summer 2014, I do hope you stay on this charming course. Changeable into the mid term seems to be the most likely outcome looking at the models this evening. the 18z GFS goes rather unsettled into FI, with a rather deep low *for time of year: 30th June - which had been rubbished by some. When GFS continues with a signal, an eye needs to be kept on it.

 

Posted Image

temp anom days 5-10 ecm ens

Edited by draztik
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The 00z GFS has Glastonbury mainly dry until Saturday.

 

The upper anomaly has cold air Scandinavia down through southern UK and Europe.  Another cold pool west of Greenland with a trough to west of Scotland and between a weak ridge.

 

So Thursday has the AZ high west of the UK and a weak area of LP to the north west with a weak front Irish Sea. The METO fax has a vaguely similar set up except it has a low pressure area west of Ireland with the front N. Ireland to Cornwall

 

Friday has the AZ ridge into Ireland and the UK in a col and dry with no wind.

 

Saturday the ridge slipping south a tad with lowish pressure to the north and frontal systems lying Ireland/Scotland at 12z bring wet weather to most areas.

 

Temps below average.

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

The 00z GFS has Glastonbury mainly dry until Saturday.

 

The upper anomaly has cold air Scandinavia down through southern UK and Europe.  Another cold pool west of Greenland with a trough to west of Scotland and between a weak ridge.

 

So Thursday has the AZ high west of the UK and a weak area of LP to the north west with a weak front Irish Sea. The METO fax has a vaguely similar set up except it has a low pressure area west of Ireland with the front N. Ireland to Cornwall

 

Friday has the AZ ridge into Ireland and the UK in a col and dry with no wind.

 

Saturday the ridge slipping south a tad with lowish pressure to the north and frontal systems lying Ireland/Scotland at 12z bring wet weather to most areas.

 

Temps below average.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

looking  at that  anyone going to  Glastonbury will need their wet gear looks  a bit wet!!!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

we seem to have developed a cold pool north of newfoundland. coupled with what has become a semi permanent greenland block, we have lows being sent into the atlantic basin towards nw europe. this could last a fair while and depending on other upstream factors, we could see any number of outcomes. the one being progged at the moment of shallow depressions lumbering across the uk isnt something we have seen for a few months. we would expect this to be corrected to a more northerly track but given the seasonal propensity thus far of a 'west of iberia' cut off low the idea that these depressions will end up close to us seems to be quite a feasible one. with no great warmth or cold showing to our west, we should escape any particular depth to these systems, should they verify.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

ECMWF also continuing with a breakdown towards the end of the Month, Some very cold air for the time of year just to the North of the UK over Iceland.

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

we seem to have developed a cold pool north of newfoundland. coupled with what has become a semi permanent greenland block, we have lows being sent into the atlantic basin towards nw europe. this could last a fair while and depending on other upstream factors, we could see any number of outcomes. the one being progged at the moment of shallow depressions lumbering across the uk isnt something we have seen for a few months. we would expect this to be corrected to a more northerly track but given the seasonal propensity thus far of a 'west of iberia' cut off low the idea that these depressions will end up close to us seems to be quite a feasible one. with no great warmth or cold showing to our west, we should escape any particular depth to these systems, should they verify.

 

yes this appears to be the case and the future build up of heights from the SW also seems a remote possibility. The ECM ops paints a bleaker picture than the GFS.

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

yes this appears to be the case and the future build up of heights from the SW also seems a remote possibility. The ECM ops paints a bleaker picture than the GFS.

In all Honesty, the ecm ops have been the leader as of late, its the gfs which has been out of kilter, just compare todays gfs charts with yesterdays, and it really shows gfs moving towards ecm  evolution....... :closedeyes:

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

compare the subtle changes on the latest Fax chart for Wednesday with the one for 24 hours ago.

I do believe that the subsequent charts will follow this idea, slightly lower pressure values in the same chart areas and a more Atlantic look rather than the high to the north blocking that flow.

Also fits with the 500mb guidance as I see it.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

 

there might be subtle changes john, and of course you dont take fax or any chart out that far as 'gospel', but im happy enough with what they are showing because that northern block is refusing to give way and may well end up deflecting the atlantic energy to our south IF it holds on. as long as its there theres an option for it building, and the breakdown as such has now been pushed back another day from thursday to friday.

 

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at the moment, the breakdown isnt nailed, although likely. im just satisfied enough with the coming week of mainly dry, warm, muggy, bright/sunny/cloudy summer weather. whether this 'breakdown' heralds a pattern change or not is yet to be made clear. theres great uncertainty beyond day 5, so despite what any data scource may be suggesting, its far from certain and confidence must be low. but indications are that the atlantic will become more active, the noaa anomaly charts and the gfs in fi appear to support this. IF the atlantic jet does kick in, then unless its more sw/ne aligned (the gfs keeps suggesting its w-e across our north) then the chances of a settled spell with sunshine and heat must be low, as once that pattern has set in, itll be hard to shift. 

Edited by Polar Maritime
Please leave the Summer write off's for another thread, Many Thanks..
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I think the pattern is clear enough from about mid week, that is an upper air pattern more trough than ridge governed. This, and I take no credit for it, it is the guidance from the anomaly charts, is now showing quite definitely as Met refine their charts from around Wednesday to show surface troughing more likely than ridging.

Decent weather to start the week but declining from the NW as the week progresses is about the the most likely output it seems to me. This pattern to be kept into the start of a new month.

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In all Honesty, the ecm ops have been the leader as of late, its the gfs which has been out of kilter, just compare todays gfs charts with yesterdays, and it really shows gfs moving towards ecm  evolution....... :closedeyes:

 

Indeed, the GFS was hanging on to good weather but has been pulled along by the ECM kicking and screaming.

 

The GFS change from yesterday's GFS 06Hz is huge, and another thing that is disappointing is the the GFS 06Hz ensembles yesterday also gave it full support, however the GFS 12Hz ensembles yesterday started to move towards ECM.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I think the pattern is clear enough from about mid week, that is an upper air pattern more trough than ridge governed. This, and I take no credit for it, it is the guidance from the anomaly charts, is now showing quite definitely as Met refine their charts from around Wednesday to show surface troughing more likely than ridging.

Decent weather to start the week but declining from the NW as the week progresses is about the the most likely output it seems to me. This pattern to be kept into the start of a new month.

 

just picking up having read what mushy posted.

Of course you don't take any chart as gospel. But what has to be taken as the most likely outcome is an amalgamation of model/chart/human outputs all pointing to about the same conclusion.

Realism and objectivity rather than hoping for something that we might prefer?

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I think the pattern is clear enough from about mid week, that is an upper air pattern more trough than ridge governed. This, and I take no credit for it, it is the guidance from the anomaly charts, is now showing quite definitely as Met refine their charts from around Wednesday to show surface troughing more likely than ridging.

Decent weather to start the week but declining from the NW as the week progresses is about the the most likely output it seems to me. This pattern to be kept into the start of a new month.

 

 

Indeed

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You can see the trend of an upper trough moving over the UK on these charts, Each one shows more of an upper trough over the UK.
Edited by J10
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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

An unsettled run from the GEM this morning and looks on a similar theme to the 120 hrs fax issued last night with LP's being forced under the Northern blocking towards the UK.

 

 

 

A rather un-seasonal look to the start of July at the end of the run as well.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014062200/gem-0-234.png?00

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Maybe worth keeping an eye on the Azores high as we move to July the ECM ens shows it starting to move towards us albeit slowly it would still keep the weather mostly settled for most parts

 

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