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Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.


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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

To be honest, i dont really see anything good or bad about the models next week' and ecms output as some have mentioned is a real mess! Putting a forecast togeather for next week will be challenging, but both ecm gfs show a pressure fall next week, ecm more consistently by mid-week..................

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Looking at the trend on the london precip graph shows mainly dry out to the 26th. Thereafter, a good chance of a wet day (and 50/50 on a second one ) in the following five days. If the ens anomolys remain weak, then a more settled or unsettled outcome for week 2 is feasible. The ecm op is of more than usual ineterest in its normal ' just for fun' period post day 7 whilst we have these weak anomolys. Of course, it could be that we are headed into a period of 'nothingness' , which, given the time of year would mean ok conditions though with a high chance of some precip, either heavy showers or fairly transient frontal incursions lacking too much punch.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

Does this mean, the warm weather will carry on into July?

 

no...it might not even last the week, thats unlikely.as things stand, the uncertainty for only a few days ahead makes anything over a week away very uncertain. what caught my eye though was the fax charts..

 

post-2797-0-88717500-1403331986_thumb.gi

 

post-2797-0-16042100-1403332010_thumb.gi

 

note the high to our north drift and intensify towards us, that looks like it might deflect the incoming, shallow, atlantic troughs and energy into france. i believe this charts supports that kind of scenario

 

post-2797-0-44214200-1403332117_thumb.gi

 

this would be good enough news for summer lovers as theres still a strong potential for some summery weather and even a real heatwave to evolve. of course on the other hand its equally feasible that the high/s fail to build sufficiently and the atlantic could 'win' which wouldnt be good news for 'summer' lovers.

Edited by mushymanrob
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

I see why UKMO have modified their model as it is very progressive with the lowering of the heights by D5:

 

post-14819-0-81014900-1403331626_thumb.g  GEM: post-14819-0-72959400-1403331637_thumb.p  GFSpost-14819-0-63276800-1403331650_thumb.p

 

However will they modify it back this morning as ECM is now rolling with it (slightly slower):

 

 D5 post-14819-0-65718700-1403332201_thumb.g D6  post-14819-0-28960300-1403332534_thumb.g  D7post-14819-0-28296100-1403332564_thumb.g

 

It takes a couple of days longer on the GFS op but some members support this faster evolution. Last night's ECM ridge (D9-10) had 33% support from the GEFS but this morning that support is only a background signal as the GEFS continue to trend to lower height:

 

post-14819-0-27391700-1403331884_thumb.g

 

The mean pressure remains below 1017.5 from D6 till the end of FI.

 

Bearing in mind the latest EC32 had an anomaly chart like this for July 01: post-14819-0-04639300-1403332089_thumb.j

 

It is unlikely last night's ECM op has it right for D8-10 (as usual).

 

No real change from yesterday with the trend to less settled continuing. How it manifests on the surface remains the main challenge for the models and of course timing.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

GFS & ECMWF showing the Atlantic winning out this morning by the turn of the Month, Bringing unsettled and wet conditions to all.

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Look like a pleasant week ahead according to the GFS, only turning unsettled and cooler once it goes into low res.

 

Next weekend could be thundery.

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Edited by SteveB
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

This morning, using the usual 500mb anomalies, and they are still not that similar, but near enough to suggest that an upper trough not a ridge will be the main effect on the surface by mid to late next week.

 

The 120h Fax shows the high to the north holding off any Atlantic but I suspect this will be altered over the next 2-3 days, that is for a chart valid for Wednesday onwards.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Consensus may have occurred. All models going for the breakdown by day 8.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Consensus may have occurred. All models going for the breakdown by day 8.

 

Posted Image

And only 8 days for it to go completely wrong and end up drier and warmer than average again :p

I think another 24 hours or so is needed before any confidence can be given on said breakdown, especially considering how the models have backtracked so many times on this type of evolution. Conditions look good still until Friday before then though so plenty of summer-like weather to enjoy before then with temperatures into the low/mid twenties in places.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

I was just gona say the same thing captain shortwave!!it's already happend plenty of times where the models have shown unsettled conditions to break through but doesnt really happen in the end!!with this breakdown being 8 days away I wouldn't count on things turning unsettled just yet!!even if it does doesnt look like a washout by any means!!

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

BBC who are very conservative and don't often make remarks about long term outlooks, were saying with confidence becoming unsettled next week make the most of this weekend, they usually sit on the fence, but do seem confident.

 

The general trend is becoming increasingly unsettled as we move towards the end of the month with the atlantic trough action set to influence the country - too early to call how wet it may turn out, but it is quite ominous in its timing where the end of June often sees the 'return of atlantic westerlies'....

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

BBC who are very conservative and don't often make remarks about long term outlooks, were saying with confidence becoming unsettled next week make the most of this weekend, they usually sit on the fence, but do seem confident.

 

The general trend is becoming increasingly unsettled as we move towards the end of the month with the atlantic trough action set to influence the country - too early to call how wet it may turn out, but it is quite ominous in its timing where the end of June often sees the 'return of atlantic westerlies'....

Indeed. Looks like the gfs 06z is showing signs of prolonging the settled weather into next week, but  going against its previous 00z run. Ecm has been fairly consistent over the last few days with a change in our weather during this coming midweek, and although both models have showed pretty poor modelling of late, ecm over the last few days as shown more consistency with its modelling, so if I had to put money on a model ,this time it would be the Ecm..... :closedeyes:

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Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

Quite a deep low being shown in the GFS run. Very windy UK wide with gales and severe gales very probable at this stage. A lot of rain, heavy at that, since the airmass is looking quite warm and humid.

 

post-21143-0-05966200-1403365232_thumb.ppost-21143-0-58537300-1403365232_thumb.p

post-21143-0-20280500-1403365233_thumb.ppost-21143-0-78375700-1403365233_thumb.p

 

Worth keeping an eye on as it may cause some damage as trees are in full leaf and some places are still prone to flooding.

Edited by Ross Andrew Hemphill
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Quite a deep low being shown in the GFS run. Very windy UK wide with gales and severe gales very probable at this stage. A lot of rain, heavy at that, since the airmass is looking quite warm and humid.

 

Posted Imageh850t850eu.pngPosted Imageh850t850eu (2).png

Posted Imageh850t850eu (3).pngPosted Imageh850t850eu (4).png

 

Worth keeping an eye on as it may cause some damage as trees are in full leaf and some places are still prone to flooding.

 

I wouldn't worry too much at this stage GFS has an awful habit of developing these deep lows in FI the 00z run didn't have it

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

I wouldn't worry too much at this stage GFS has an awful habit of developing these deep lows in FI the 00z run didn't have it

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

That's more like it!

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Quite a deep low being shown in the GFS run. Very windy UK wide with gales and severe gales very probable at this stage. A lot of rain, heavy at that, since the airmass is looking quite warm and humid.

 

Posted Imageh850t850eu.pngPosted Imageh850t850eu (2).png

Posted Imageh850t850eu (3).pngPosted Imageh850t850eu (4).png

 

Worth keeping an eye on as it may cause some damage as trees are in full leaf and some places are still prone to flooding.

 

300 hours out on the 6z GFS.....is this post serious or a wind up?

 

If you're new to model watching, a bit of advice....take anything after 168hrs with a pinch of salt!

 

On to the 12z....if there's ever a weather chart which is the epitome of the term 'cross roads', this is it......!

 

Posted Image

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

^^^ The GFS 06z op is one the most optimistic of its members in maintaining higher pressure: post-14819-0-76691600-1403352540_thumb.g

 

With the trait of the 06z suite to generally over do higher pressure I wouldn't be confident of the longevity of the higher pressure from the  06z op run.

 

The ECM ensembles are showing increasing precipitation per run, this morning: post-14819-0-99273100-1403352680_thumb.g

 

The mean suggests above average monthly rainfall (about 150%) for London  incoming after the next five dry days. However if as likely some of the upper flow comes from the N/NE/NW, with the very high SSTs currently some places could see a lot more:

 

post-14819-0-52240200-1403352942_thumb.p

 

I do not think we will see sustained lower heights but no models are currently hinting at a positive height anomaly for the UK.

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

UKMO keeps to its guns with D5 LP moving SE: post-14819-0-32125500-1403368719_thumb.g D6: post-14819-0-00884600-1403368730_thumb.g

 

GEM also now on board for lowering pressure D5, but not as clean as UKMO, rather stalls:

 

post-14819-0-39824700-1403368791_thumb.p  D7: post-14819-0-54271200-1403368803_thumb.p Still there by D10: post-14819-0-26927000-1403369313_thumb.p

 

GFS, as expected quicker than the 06z, but slower than UKMO:  post-14819-0-63650300-1403368859_thumb.p

 

GFS op in FI has a westerly flow with N/S split and Short wave ridges and troughs somewhere over UK:

 

post-14819-0-41581800-1403368960_thumb.ppost-14819-0-29361100-1403368970_thumb.ppost-14819-0-95246100-1403368978_thumb.p

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Afternoon all :)

 

After what looks like another very tough week for hay fever sufferers, some sign of relief next weekend from the GFS 12Z Operational:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014062112/gfs-0-168.png?12

 

GEM keeps the settled conditions in the south a fraction lower but by lowering heights more generally to the west and south west offers a much more comprehensive breakdown into July:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014062112/gem-0-168.png?12

 

Yet the UKMO is far more progressive and this is the chart of the day for me:

 

http://meteociel.com/ukmo/runs/2014062112/UW144-21.GIF?21-18

 

That's a huge disparity at T+144 with GFS as well as GEM and it's rare to see UKMO take such a line and be the outlier. Kudos to Exeter if they've called this right and I'll be happy though I expect Glastonbury fans won't be so thrilled.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

If you're new to model watching, a bit of advice....take anything after 168hrs with a pinch of salt!

 

On to the 12z....if there's ever a weather chart which is the epitome of the term 'cross roads', this is it......!

 

Posted Image

 

Sound advice there from Crewe Cold and as ever, I also wouldn't jump on individual runs as they have a habit of misleading even the most experienced of model suite watchers. The summaries of the H500 (upper air) profiles of the Northern Hemisphere afforded to us by the likes of John Holmes continually provide sound guidance too, especially given that conditions at the surface are nearly impossible to predict at t+168 hours or wherever and of course, this timescale isn't static either.

 

Moving on, my prediction of the pivotal date for the forthcoming breakdown is extremely close to CC's posting above with the New Moon of the 27th June being my anticipated breakdown date. I'm sure we will almost certainly see a more mobile picture by then, but just how prolonged this new weather phase becomes, how warm, how cool, how wet etc. is in the "lap of the gods" territory even at this relatively short range of just t+144 hours or thereabouts. Nonetheless should any HP influence arrive at our shores once again, will it be so predictable as to its' duration, well for me, no, I suggest I struck it lucky when I made the following comment way back on the 9th June

 

"I believe this will be a more prolonged episode of HP dominance than most might currently imagine, stretching well into next week but let's see, shall we."

 

At that time, the HP influence wasn't forecast to stay around for more than five to six days according to most commentators, but bar the Thundery blip last weekend, its held firm for nigh on two weeks and should largely still be in control up to the mid-week period of next week at least.

 

 

Enjoy this spell of predominately dry weather while it lasts as it is Wimbledon next week after all, so some downpours are inevitable as so often is the case at this time of year.

Edited by Polar Maritime
To remove meto copy and past.
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

GFS ensemble suite struggling with D5 onwards as the short ens for pressure show: post-14819-0-11528600-1403371349_thumb.g

 

Again the op is more positive compared to the mean for pressure remaining higher in London longer. By D8 about 20hPa difference between the lowest and highest member. Lots of different outcomes with that spread. Interestingly there is about 40% support for the progressive UKMO D6 chart. A lot more than this morning so it may be trending in that direction (though op and control not included). There are also differences in the energy from the upper low; warmer 500hPa temps. and slacker, though 2-3 mirror the Met.

 

The "unlikely" low of the 06z appears again on the Control at T288: post-14819-0-17605700-1403372171_thumb.p

 

Remains unlikely but one to watch.

 

Rainfall for the next 8 days remains above average for certain areas:  post-14819-0-17407000-1403372309_thumb.g

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