Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.

[ANYWEATHER]

Gfs and Ecm disagree , ....

[knocker]

The ECM ops is still running a similar story as the last run for Glastonbury.

 

The 500mb anomaly has a broad swathe of cold air Canada to Scandinavia leading to a cyclonic unsettled surface synopsis. The boundary betwen the air masses running along around the south of England.

Edited June 18, 2014 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

The models differ greatly this evening from t192 with ECM still going for this deep low (need to wait for ens update later to what if any support this has 00z had non)

 

GFS

 

 

ECM

 

 

GEM

 

 

So longer term things are uncertain which is nothing new but for the next 7 days its looking mostly settled and warm potentially border line hot in the south initially and more widespread later for a time next week which is something I'm keeping an eye on (3rd chart only goes to noon so you can add another 2c to 4c to that for the afternoon peak)

 

[Summer Sun]

ECM once again over cooking the low if its ens is to be believed

 

Op

 

 

ens

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Conditions look pretty good from now until probably the middle of next week. Heights will stay close enough to the UK until Sunday when high pressure will start to drift eastwards across the south of the UK. Temperatures look good on the whole with the id-twenties possible on just about any day, especially Sunday and into next week when the wind direction looks more favourable to longer sunny periods.

Beyond that like many have said, there is signs of a more westerly type pattern developing which would suggest a north/south split in conditions. Something the ECM ens seem to agree with.

Again the op looks more progressive in the suite. To be honest, I was surprised at how quickly things deteriorated when we got to day 7. Looked too quick again.

[knocker]

Yes the ECM ens has a ridge splitting the cold air. Not sure I'd have much confidence in this either.

 

[summer blizzard]

Lack of consensus remains but the Euro sticks with a stronger jet and chain of lows..

 

[CongletonHeat]

High pressure stays in charge up to day 5, I don't bother with charts after that as they are usually pointless.

 

[SteveB]

GFS 0z shows a continuation of the dry warm theme for this weekend and well into next week.

 

Again it's only in low res that things turn cooler and unsettled.

 

Some front pass over the top of the high affecting Northern Scotland, and showers can't be ruled out for eastern England too.

 

But the general theme is settled and warm

 

 

 

 

[William of Walworth]

Really (to the point of extremely) nervous about how the discrepancies between ECM and GFS are going to resolve themselves. Could make a big difference for next week! No time to check details now. I can but hope that the LP theme of ECM runs yesterday is overdoing things and we end up with more of  North/South divide with dryness hanging on in the South/SW -- how likely?. Pure hopecasting that though.

[SteveB]

Well the Ecmf does look unsettled next week, will have to wait and see what this mornings update brings.

 

Although, the BBC forecast this morning said Wimbledon gets of to a fine start. So it sounds like they are going for a settled start to the week.

Edited June 19, 2014 by SteveB

[knocker]

Well I wouldn't bank on it at the moment WoW.

 

The GFS is still going for the change in the 500mb anomaly in the middle of next week with the development of the Scandinavian trough over the UK bringing bad news regarding the surface analysis for Glastonbury.

 

Friday has a high SW of Ireland mid Atlantic with a low over Norway bringing generally wet weather to UK although the south may be okay. Saturday the HP has edged closer but the low Scandinavia has deepened bringing strong northerly winds and generally grotty everywhere.

 

 

Edited June 19, 2014 by knocker

[mushymanrob]

obviously im no expert, but the noaa 6-10 anomaly appears to support the gfs's version rather then the ecm's, and it also doesnt really support an atlantic incursion later next week with low over iberia and scandinavia with a ridge from the azores up our western side .

 

the 8-14 dayer doesnt support a strong atlantic run, but perhaps pressure rising to our northeast ? (a transfer of the western ridge maybe) although it is a western flow.

 

please correct me if im mistaken!

 

Edited June 19, 2014 by mushymanrob

[knocker]

The GFS certainly isn't going for an Atlantic incursion end of next week rather one from Scandinavia so really agrees with NOAA apart from the ridge.

Edited June 19, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

High pressure stays in charge up to day 5, I don't bother with charts after that as they are usually pointless.

 

 

 

Isn't that the point of bothering? To try to understand why they are pointless always assuming they are which I don't. I mean the five day forecast is as good as the two day one was twenty years ago so that was pretty pointless then.

[Summer Sun]

After 2 runs against its ens ECM has finally dropped the deep-ish low is was showing for the Glastonbury weekend though some rain is possible in places as systems come in off the Atlantic

 

 

Before that next week looks fairly settled and warm

 

 

UKMO continues to show high pressure dominating

 

 

We should be seeing temperatures ranging from the low to mid 20's for England and wales next week though it looks mixed in Scotland at this stage with maxes in ranging from the low to high teens

Edited June 19, 2014 by Summer Sun

[SteveB]

Isn't that the point of bothering? To try to understand why they are pointless always assuming they are which I don't. I mean the five day forecast is as good as the two day one was twenty years ago so that was pretty pointless then.

 

Just my personal opinion, but anything past 180hrs is purely guess work.

 

When you have big Summer events like Glasto and Wimbledon, if I was going to those later next week & into the following weekend, I wouldn't be taking any notice of the what the weather charts say until this Sunday/ Monday

 

By that point we should have a firm idea of what the weather will be like.

 

Just my opinion though.... each to there own & all that jazz

Edited June 19, 2014 by SteveB

[knocker]

Just my personal opinion, but anything past 180hrs is purely guess work.

 

When you have big Summer events like Glasto and Wimbledon, if I was going to those later next week & into the following weekend, I wouldn't be taking any notice of the what the weather charts say until This Monday/Tuesday.

 

By that point we should have a firm idea of what the weather will be like.

 

Just my opinion though.... each to there own & all that jazz

 

Fine I don't have a problem with your opinion. I do with the use of the word 'pointless'. Does the retail trade, construction, shipping, etc think it's pointless?

[knocker]

Yup the ECM ops 500mb anomaly now has a weak ridge over the UK end of next week leading to the Azores high influencing the weather in the southern half of Britain.

Edited June 19, 2014 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

Fine I don't have a problem with your opinion. I do with the use of the word 'pointless'. Does the retail trade, construction, shipping, etc think it's pointless?

 

Exactly Knock, I think it's only "pointless" to the individual, And not something that needs to be advertised in this thread. The Models, if used correctly for what they are in any given time-frame, are a fantastic tool.  Moving on..

 

The models this morning show a mainly settled outlook for next week, With bands of showers moving across the North of the UK leaving the Midlands South mainly dry but cloudy at times. The GFS shows things turning more unsettled towards the end of the run from the N/W then North pushing bands of rain/showers further South with it.

 

[Thundery wintry showers]

I would tend to back the ECMWF over the GFS in this type of situation, especially with the UKMO giving some support to the ECMWF evolution, though I think the ECMWF model is probably overdoing the "June Return of the Westerlies", and that goes for the ensemble mean too which shows a rather changeable-looking pattern by the 27th.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.gif

 

I think the high pressure will probably hang around for longer in southern and eastern parts of Britain than the ECMWF is showing, a scenario which is also supported by the NOAA 8-14 day outlook and the GEFS ensembles.  I also think there is a good chance of Glastonbury remaining largely rain-free although a lot depends on how rapid any change to relatively changeable conditions is.

 

Some have been describing the longer-term GFS outlook as "settled and warm" but this applies mainly to western and southern Britain- the projected temperatures for most of Scotland and the eastern side of England are close to the seasonal average (allowing for the slight underestimation that we often get with the GFS).  However I feel that the GFS operational run is rather out on its own in keeping high pressure that dominant and that an outcome more along the lines of the GEFS ensembles is likely.   The models appear to be agreed on mostly warm and sunny conditions for Wales and the southern half of England between the 22nd and 24th June (possibly extending into much of northern England too) with temperatures reaching the mid 20s in the south.

Edited June 19, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers

[SteveB]

GFS 6z shows a continuation of the dry settled theme, things turn unsettled in FI

 

 

 

 

[summer blizzard]

Lack of consensus remains. GFS continues with the June pattern of a sluggish jet and high heights everywhere. GEM and Euro both go for more of a classic westerly flow and probable N/S split.

 

[mushymanrob]

indeed the emerging pattern appears to be one that would deliver a pretty average, pleasant set of summery conditions. pretty warm but not settled. no monsoon but no heatwave, whilst it might disappoint heat fans, its still better then some recent summers.

[knocker]

As far as Cornwall is concerned the weather so far has been great, long may it continue and the models are looking a wee bit favourable at the moment.