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Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.


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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

My 6000th post.. and is pleasing to be able to post positive remarks about the outlook.

 

It remains a positively settled one in the main, with no major frontal attacks or low pressure on the scene, always a good thing as we enter summer proper. However, with the high pressure anchored to the west/northwest unfortunately rather a lot of cloud for many, as is the case today, indeed its quite a gloomy drizzly affair here.. but back to the positives, its been a long while since we can say with confidence it looks like a lengthy dry spell ahead for most, apart from the odd shower or bit of drizzle at times blown in off the northerly drift.

 

Temperature wise - a long way off heatwave conditions, in the main average in the east, bit warmer than average further west, with some spots in the SW and West Scotland a fair bit above average at times thanks to being sheltered from the N/NE wind.

 

Many long range forecasts were suggesting June would be the best month of the summer, and certainly June 2014 in the main could turn out to be a preety decent summer month devoid of anything particularly wet or chilly, whilst never being particularly very warm/hot.

 

I'll stay positive for now, and refrain from talking about prospects for July and August....

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Looking ahead, GFS and ECM means pretty much in agreement by T216, always a good thing for confidence in the forecast:

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Both show the Azores High ridging towards the UK and some sort of trough towards Iberia. This would mean not completely settled in the UK at first, but the possibility of a stronger build of High Pressure after that. With the source being from the SW, a build of pressure would probably be warmer than it is at present. So any interruption to our settled weather at D6-D8 may well be short-lived. A proper Scandi trough might be a fly in the ointment, maintaining a northerly element, but Scandi troughs modelled recently keep getting flatterned out/moved east, so hard to back this idea unless it gets much nearer to T0.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

GFS and GEM tonight are a bit messy after the initial cold push.

 

GFS is however abysmal in FI..

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Looking like the high will drift far enough west to introudce some fresher air by Friday for most though how long it would last remains to be seen though I don't suspect it will be too long

 

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Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth

Sorry that I'm temporarily going off track here, but "a fly in the ointment"? I've never heard that before!

 

However returning to Model Discussion, it does seem that all of the models are under agreement to the UK being under the influence of high pressure until at least, the solstice.

 

I've heard it used plenty of times. Someone at Southampton Weather Centre (can't rememeber if it was Ted Young or Peter Cresswell) would often use it in broadcasts on BBC Radio Solent. Ah, the good old days.....

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Yes the GFS op throws another googly that I didn't see coming, by building heights to our north by D10:

 

post-14819-0-02807400-1402853965_thumb.p

 

The control supports this but with only two other members (at that time frame). So I am not buying this for the moment. All as well as FI for both hi-res runs is un-Summer like.

 

No change in the London ENS for the next seven days. As a whole a week of below average temps with one warm day:

 

post-14819-0-06825000-1402854160_thumb.g

 

GEM avoids the link up of the upper Iberian low with the Scandi trough, so we have Higher Pressure close to the UK throughout the run:

 

D10: post-14819-0-48331300-1402854368_thumb.p  The 12z GEFS have about 20% support for this.

 

The plot thickens. Plenty of options remain on the table. See what ECM comes up with now.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Ecm goes very amplified day 7 to 8. looks a bit suspect but a double whammy of retrogressing scandi ridge and WAA in the western atlantic would mean wimbledon week 1 being less summery than has looked to be e case recently. Tbh, the ecm ens have shown a cooler few days before temps recover again so there must be a fair chunk of members going in this direction.

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Ecm goes very amplified day 7 to 8. looks a bit suspect but a double whammy of retrogressing scandi ridge and WAA in the western atlantic would mean wimbledon week 1 being less summery than has looked to be e case recently. Tbh, the ecm ens have shown a cooler few days before temps recover again so there must be a fair chunk of members going in this direction.

There is certainly no heatwave on the way, Chasing cloud and a few showers this week before we see the high declining out west and seeing more unsettled conditions ushering in. Ecm looks awful for Summer at T+240...... :nonono:  :angry:  :angry:

post-6830-0-65266600-1402860376_thumb.pn

post-6830-0-94958900-1402860407_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Late-June often features the "return of the westerlies" as the Azores High strengthens and the jet stream increases in strength on its northern flank.  I had previously forecast that this would happen in the third week of June but it has been delayed somewhat, and my current feeling is that it will most likely happen at the end of June and/or into early July.

 

A west-east split looks likely to stay in place for most of the coming week.  I'll be surprised if the current cloud sheet doesn't burn off significantly in central and western parts of Britain but it may stay cool and cloudy in the east, particularly Lincolnshire and East Anglia.  Dry sunny conditions are most likely to establish widely on the 18th and 19th as a ridge from the anticyclone moves southwards through the British Isles.

 

Although I think the ECMWF is overdoing the North Sea trough around 22-24 June, I think there is quite strong support for a trough to move southwards down the North Sea around that time.  The northerly air stream is likely to be fairly cold, but possibly fairly stable due to modification from dry, stable air over Scandinavia, so I think it may end up mostly cloudy and cool in the east of the country with some light rain or showers, while the west will probably stay dry and sunny.

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20140615/12/ecm500.192.png

 

I think that the high pressure will probably ridge back in from the west between the 25th and 28th June causing dry sunny weather to become more widespread again, and then following behind that we may see a change to a more changeable westerly type.

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

There is certainly no heatwave on the way, Chasing cloud and a few showers this week before we see the high declining out west and seeing more unsettled conditions ushering in. Ecm looks awful for Summer at T+240...... :nonono:  :angry:  :angry:

 

True it does look uninspiring with a cool northerly air stream but its FI and the 0z mean doesnt really support such an outcome so maybe its one for the bin.

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

There is certainly no heatwave on the way, Chasing cloud and a few showers this week before we see the high declining out west and seeing more unsettled conditions ushering in. Ecm looks awful for Summer at T+240...... :nonono:  :angry:  :angry:

As I've been suffering and miserable with hayfever for the last 2 weeks this is music to my ears!
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Late-June often features the "return of the westerlies" as the Azores High strengthens and the jet stream increases in strength on its northern flank.  I had previously forecast that this would happen in the third week of June but it has been delayed somewhat, and my current feeling is that it will most likely happen at the end of June and/or into early July.

 

A west-east split looks likely to stay in place for most of the coming week.  I'll be surprised if the current cloud sheet doesn't burn off significantly in central and western parts of Britain but it may stay cool and cloudy in the east, particularly Lincolnshire and East Anglia.  Dry sunny conditions are most likely to establish widely on the 18th and 19th as a ridge from the anticyclone moves southwards through the British Isles.

 

Although I think the ECMWF is overdoing the North Sea trough around 22-24 June, I think there is quite strong support for a trough to move southwards down the North Sea around that time.  The northerly air stream is likely to be fairly cold, but possibly fairly stable due to modification from dry, stable air over Scandinavia, so I think it may end up mostly cloudy and cool in the east of the country with some light rain or showers, while the west will probably stay dry and sunny.

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20140615/12/ecm500.192.png

 

I think that the high pressure will probably ridge back in from the west between the 25th and 28th June causing dry sunny weather to become more widespread again, and then following behind that we may see a change to a more changeable westerly type.

 

Late June is usually a pivotal time, in a similar way to late December, in that these are period when the northern hemisphere traditionally settled into its summer and winter state respectively. How the jet interacts with the azores high is crucial. Take 2012 and 2013, late June 2012 saw the jet lying low in its southerly path with the azores high nowhere to be seen, whereas late June 2013 saw the emergence of the azores high nudging NE with the jet going north as we moved into July.

 

We'll know in a couple of weeks who will likely become the major player..

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Posted
  • Location: Mansfield
  • Location: Mansfield

My 6000th post.. and is pleasing to be able to post positive remarks about the outlook.

 

 

Many long range forecasts were suggesting June would be the best month of the summer, and certainly June 2014 in the main could turn out to be a preety decent summer month devoid of anything particularly wet or chilly, whilst never being particularly very warm/hot.

 

Have to disagree. June has been horribly wet here in Mansfield. Last week alone we had FIVE torrential storms with flash flooding (Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Friday) plus rain on Wednesday, Saturday and Sunday (today). And that is just the past week! Looking forward to drying out, hopefully!

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

That low near Portugal looks to be sticking there for quite some time. If the jet does start to pick up the pace then a UK high could be a distinct possibility if the Azores high can finally build over the top in a more robust fashion. Again heights to the north east look very stubborn though again and could possibly block this evolution. Are the operationals overdoing this signal. The ECM does look rather extreme in pushing arctic air relentlessly south west over Europe.

Ensembles still showing the ridge to be west of the UK, but perhaps the flow becoming more northwesterly and hence a little better for those in the east.

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

GFS is showing some very cool/unsettled weather from the West then the N/N/E at the turn of the Month this morning, With Heights moving up into Greenland and over the Poles pushing what's left of the Vortex down over N/E Europe. 

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A quick look through the looking glass for Glastonbury with the 00z GFS. Not good so just as well there is plenty of time for change in this fluid situation. By 06z for instance but for the time being.

 

The 500mb anomaly has the ridge to the west of the UK weakening and moving NE. Cold air remains over Scandinavia and Europe.

 

Wednesday 25th

 

Transient ridge over the UK 1022mb. Low pressure SE of Greenland with associated fronts 150 miles west of Ireland. Another low pressure area over France giving very wet conditions.

 

Thursday

 

Similar to Wednesday but the ridge declining and the Atlantic fronts now reaching Ireland with some quite heavy rain. Situation in France unchanged,

 

Friday

 

Low 1007mb now just west of Ireland with associated front Ireland to the south west of England with a band of rain stretching to west midlands and Hampshire. The low over France has moved away SE.

 

Saturday

 

Low pressure over the whole of the UK bringing wet weather to all regions

post-12275-0-80899300-1402899957_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008

Forgive me for finding the above signals somewhat hard to believe -- I know that's a correct reading of the GFS 00z synoptics as they stood at that point, but isn't such a Low dominated scenario rather an extreme switch away from what's been suggested in recent runs more generally?

 

As recently as Sunday morning, many runs were looking a lot more benign with little scope for rain ...

 

What would it take, I wonder, for HP to remain somewhat more of a player at least in the SW, for next week? Any possibilities?

 

<desparate strawclutching>

Edited by William of Walworth
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

Late June is usually a pivotal time, in a similar way to late December, in that these are period when the northern hemisphere traditionally settled into its summer and winter state respectively. How the jet interacts with the azores high is crucial. Take 2012 and 2013, late June 2012 saw the jet lying low in its southerly path with the azores high nowhere to be seen, whereas late June 2013 saw the emergence of the azores high nudging NE with the jet going north as we moved into July.

 

We'll know in a couple of weeks who will likely become the major player..

 

couldnt agree more!however, i dont get the feeling that itll be extreme, im not expecting a scorcher, nor a washout, but something pretty average, but like you say...its a pivotal period and will probably determine the pattern/trend for the heart of summer.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Forgive me for finding the above signals somewhat hard to believe -- I know that's a correct reading of the GFS 00z synoptics as they stood at that point, but isn't such a Low dominated scenario rather an extreme switch away from what's been suggested in recent runs more generally?

 

As recently as Sunday morning, many runs were looking a lot more benign with little scope for rain ...

 

What would it take, I wonder, for HP to remain somewhat more of a player at least in the SW, for next week? Any possibilities?

 

<desparate strawclutching>

 

I wouldn't get too disheartened it's just one run and one model and we are talking ten days time. I only posted it because that's what it's saying. J10's blog will give you a much better professional run down on this as you probably know.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

ECMWF also turns unsettled and cool from the 23rd from the N/E as Heights push up over Iceland.. Not a good out-look this morning I must say.

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Thursday onwards has always been where there has been lots of uncertainty. This has been apparent for some days and although it now looks like the models are indicating what the main GEFS clusters have been hinting at for over 5 days, the high being squeezed with an incursion from the N/NE, bringing in the cooler uppers, what follows is still rather hazy. Day 7 ens:

 

post-14819-0-52046500-1402902850_thumb.p  D10: post-14819-0-82306500-1402902863_thumb.p

 

The pressure chart shows the London GEFS members disagreeing from next weekend so that D10 mean covers a few possibilities but the trend from D7 is better:

 

post-14819-0-81387200-1402902755_thumb.g

 

GEM shows what the better GEFS members suggest for D10 (about 30%), the W/E split: post-14819-0-80321300-1402903065_thumb.p

 

The GFS ops of late have been in outlier territory, a sign that the upcoming pattern change is proving difficult to pin down. Again in FI it looks to over do the fall in pressure and has nominal support from its suite (D11+). 

 

ECM is also struggling to deal with the HP cell as the trough drops from Scandi. Yesterday from D7 it pumped it up from the Atlantic (usual trait), this morning it cuts it off and the residual upper high sits over Iceland:

 

post-14819-0-79314300-1402903698_thumb.p

 

Not a great position for the UK, but I am sure it will deal with it differently tonight.

 

​What seems very likely now is that HP will breakdown by the end of the week for the east at least.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Looking at UKMO this moning the fresher air only affects Scotland and the East by t144 the fresher air becomes restricted to Scotland

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport

There looks like a good possibility that LP will start to take over our weather at the end of this week.

To have 2 weeks of relatively dry and warm weather in the UK though is a blessing and not to be sniffed at. I am ready for some rain and wind again now though :-)

Edited by No Balls Like Snow Balls
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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

As I've been suffering and miserable with hayfever for the last 2 weeks this is music to my ears!

Some very nice output this morning for those of us looking forward to a break from the sniffing. sneezing and living on tablets.

 

GFS very welcome this morning with some very pleasant cool and rainy conditions:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014061600/gfs-0-138.png?0

 

Nice to see that N or NE'ly flow meaning we won't have to worry about that horrible heat and humidity.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014061600/ECM1-192.GIF?16-12

 

Superb chart with pollen levels suppressed by cloud and rain.

 

GEM less inspiring with the HP hanging around though no heat on offer mercifully:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014061600/gem-0-192.png?00

 

Still, not too bad at all.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2014061600/navgem-0-168.png?16-06

 

NAVGEM also suggesting some relief in sight by the end of this week and into next week.

 

Plenty of time for some fine, warm and dry summer weather from mid-July onward.

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