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Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.


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Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth

The GFS thoughts for the upcoming weekend.

 

The cold pool over the Arctic troughing down to Scandinavia and the cold pool stretching way to the east.  The warm air western Atlantic/Greenland with large ridge NS over the UK to Azores high.

 

Leading to a relatively simple surface analysis.

 

Saturday through Monday an area of high pressure to the W/NW of Ireland 1032mb.  Northerly winds becoming NE by Monday.  Saturday wet over the UK otherwise fairly dry. Temps on Saturday slightly above normal but cooler through the next couple of days and slightly below normal by Monday.

When you talk about "warm air over Western Atlantic/Greenland" do you actually mean high T850s, or do you really mean heights (at 500mb) producing yellows and oranges on the SLP/500mb maps?? I suspect it is the latter as looking at the T850s in those parts, they are sub-5c in the main.

Edited by Uncle_Barty
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

At this stage, I wouldn't pay muh attn to the ECM op post day 7/8. That influx of low heights to the north of the uk at day 10 was not evident in the spreads and as such, must be considered unlikely.

As I mused yesterday, the next few days will be used to decide whether we are Atlantic ridge or Scandi trough influenced next week. Could be both!

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

When you talk about "warm air over Western Atlantic/Greenland" do you actually mean high T850s, or do you really mean heights (at 500mb) producing yellows and oranges on the SLP/500mb maps?? I suspect it is the latter as looking at the T850s in those parts, they are sub-5c in the main.

 

Sorry should have said regarding the 500mb anomaly. I'm having these frequent senior moments of late. I'll correct the post. Thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Not much to be said regarding the ECM ops run that is much different to the GFS so i won't say it.

 

The key regarding the regional weather and temps for the UK would appear to depend on the exact position of the HP.

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Morning folks! Im not really liking the look of the trend from both ecm and gfs mid range to be honest, Both show the high retrogressing back into the Atlantic and then the models collapse the high. Ironic really, as the models are showing rather cool weather now, against what they were showing a few days ago of heatwave conditions. I think its best of some fine weather days this week [for some] as it rather changeable at least for all after this week..... :closedeyes:

Edited by ANYWEATHER
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Posted
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl

 

The key regarding the regional weather and temps for the UK would appear to depend on the exact position of the HP.

 

Yes, that sums it up for me.  We are talking a fair way off meteorlogically and there is a lot of time for change.  Some runs/models are going for a UK high, others are going for a high centred significantly off the west coast of Ireland.  A shift of even 200 miles could see a very substantial change in the surface weather expected, especially in the east, and at this range the shift could be much greater than that.

 

Of course, this assumes that the runs wanting to push the High west are correct, but we are a long way from knowing that at present.

 

One thing that unites the models is a High in the vicinity of the UK.  The troughing is currently modelled well east of us, so although it could be cool, it's looking likely to be fairly dry, especially the further west you are.

 

It's all about the High's exact positioning, which won't be clear for a while.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Much better from UKMO this morning with the low to our east not getting in like it did for a few runs

 

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850's higher as a result

 

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UKMO at t144 (3rd chart) looks much better than ECM as well

 

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The GFS ENS has the high hanging around for a lengthy time

 

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

And if the UKMO went beyond t+144 it would likely push the high slightly northeast which would assert its dominance over the UK. It wound mean cooler air filtering in from the NE across southern parts but it would be dry for all which is a plus after all the rain of late.

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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK

Looking at the majority of the models and the CFSv2 for averaging out the models, it looks likely a ridging of high pressure till mid month across the UK from the Azores with a brief interlude from the north, so quite clear and likely a lot chilly than of later. But it depends on how far that riding can reach us and stay as a player for the outlook into July.

 

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I'd say high pressure will be flirting with us for the next few weeks. NCEP (NMC) plots an interesting few weeks upcoming with high pressure to our west, with further high pressure likely to build in from the South East across Europe.  Maybe the first tell-tale signs of a complete block across Europe for Summer? Although it's 360hrs out so quite a way away from being certain or likely.

 

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Edited by Robbie Garrett
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

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UKMO at t144 (3rd chart) looks much better than ECM as well

 

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The GFS ENS has the high hanging around for a lengthy time

 

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Don't ask me why, gut feeling I suppose but I do see this as the new trend after the usual weekend wobbles (mid-range) in the outputs. Whether it will be very warm to hot HP cell in time or simply an average Temp situation matters not to me, I would like to see it become drier after these last few days of heavy showers/storms. I believe this will be a more prolonged episode of HP dominance than most might currently imagine, stretching well into next week but let's see, shall we. The best and hottest of the weather occurring in parts of the SW, Wales and Southern England, all IMHO.

 

The Met Office view (currently) suggests the following for the middle third of June, so some backup of my thoughts for now.

 

For much of this period, many areas are likely to see a reasonable amount of dry weather with southern parts seeing the best of the sunshine, though occasional patchy rain or showers are possible even here.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Not much to be said regarding the ECM ops run that is much different to the GFS so i won't say it.

 

The key regarding the regional weather and temps for the UK would appear to depend on the exact position of the HP.

Yes, as is often the case with the UK weather, very difficult to predict more than 6 days ahead, and I would call it 50/50 between a northerly influence or a UK high next week (the latter could bring heatwave conditions).

 

There are suggestions of blocking over Greenland, which might encourage troughs to head for us eventually. But models often seem to threaten height rises in this area only for them never to properly establish. Once they do get established, though, it is hard to get rid of them. So it is a lurking threat! 

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

Yes, as is often the case with the UK weather, very difficult to predict more than 1 hr ahead, and I would call it 50/50 between a northerly influence or a UK high next week (the latter could bring heatwave conditions).

 

There are suggestions of blocking over Greenland, which might encourage troughs to head for us eventually. But models often seem to threaten height rises in this area only for them never to properly establish. Once they do get established, though, it is hard to get rid of them. So it is a lurking threat! 

 

Fixed

 

But in all truthfulness forecasters do have trouble beyond a day let alone 6, just look how difficult this winter was! Can't believe the amount of times the models forecasted a colder period and we were stuck with endless low pressure systems

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Well, just as the Euro and GEM step into line the GFS gets wobbly and like the UKMO has the high close enough to shunt the cold push east of the UK.

 

Personally though as much as i find the GFS realistic i note that UKMO has basically no heights over Greenland and so would chuck that.

 

Let's see what the 12z brings but for now i'm sticking with the trend of recent days..

 

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

it looks to be fine and settled 24c in the south of the uk is rather nice warmer and cooler from time to time no heatwave but rather nice right out into fi no cold northerly as we see in winter scandi area will be chiller , once again models did over cook the lower heights to our east and east they will stay.its a progressive build of heights more homegrown in nature but lovely to see.of coarse there will be areas plagued by low cloud and sea breezes but over all ver settled as we progress through the week we should now see the models starting to agree with each other.the ecm seems to have called this current building of heights well.

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

This run has a familiar ring to it, brings out flavours of 2006, and 2003 in FI toward the end. Not that I'm saying this will definitely happen, however it's nice to see the models toy with the idea of high pressure settling over us. Given any prolonged dry, sunny spells, the ground will dry out, allowing temperatures to rise, if indeed we get that scenario.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Big improvements on the models so far this evening!!high pressure seems to be pushing further and further east on each run!!weekend is starting to look warm aswell!!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

The battle still be raging, UKMO and GFS hold their course. So do the GEM and Euro (to day 7 anyway - still waiting for it to load).

 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

I assume ecm is over amplifying things like it always does!!not saying its wrong but lets see what happens!!it's still showing a cooler weekend!!

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ECM at the end of the run has the 500mb anomaly with what is suspiciously like a transient ridge just to the west of the UK. Knife edge comes to mind.

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

The ecm and gfs don't agree on T+144. High pressure for just about the whole run from gfs  the ecm has none of it with fronts moving southeast across the nation albeit week fronts,,,,Again the models are really struggling with this scenario, the met office update is in line with the Ecm..... :closedeyes:

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