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Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.


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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

 

Quite good agreement on a very warm spell just around the corner. Peaking at the weekend, falling back slightly then a more prolonged warm spell coming from the Azores high pushing up from the SW. Quite a bit of rain to come though associated with the first peak next weekend. Important not to read too much into the ensembles but they do look promising indicating a general warming trend is likely.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Things could potentially get very interesting next Saturday UKMO is also on board now for a plume of very warm air to move up from France with some thundery rain possible from some

 

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Beyond this the ECM ensemble doesn't look too bad longer term with pressure steadily building from the SE despite the Op going all out for low pressure to return

 

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Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

ECM op looks to be overdoing the vigerous looking low at T+240. The mean looking promising.

 

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

There is a cluster of ecm ens members that bring in a depression to the sw of the uk by day 10. for the time being, it looks like they are wrong but the op is not completely unsupported, though, not surprisingly, looks too progressive wrt this cluster.

The worry would be that 'destination uk' for the upper trough seems to be the trend thus far this spring.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Regarding the ECM ens for next week I'm favouring the expression, "tinkering on the brink". There is a mass of warm air to the south and east.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

GFS ensembles back the rise in 850's for next weekend this morning

 

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After a short lived drop around the 10th for England the 850's rise well above average once more from the 11th

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

The 06z even more progressive with the plume event with the heat flooding northwards during Friday with +14C 850s over most of England by Saturday. I think this would put us into the hot category.

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Shame it's the 06z from the GFS really :p

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Looks like the Azores high would push in after this as well. Absolute crackjack of a run. Or in other words a total tease

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

The GFS 6z has drier conditions moving into the SW as early as late on Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure moves up from the south. By Thursday this has quickly transferred over the rest of the country to bring a dryish day for the bulk of England and Wales with temperatures just a little below normal. From Friday onwards it gets interesting with temperatures rising.

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

WOW, 06z is an absolute stonker!! Look at those CAPE values for Friday and Saturday too! Off the scale! 

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Things all happening rather fast on the 6z. By Sunday high pressure has moved in and its a rather pleasant cooler day with temperatures of 19-21c

 

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

i cant see the azores high being a player in these charts.... but a strong euro high and mean trough to our west whilst isnt great (for settled sunny weather) its still a step in the right direction. looks to me like a fairly normal early summer outcome IF these charts varify.... not settled but no washout, a warm mixed bag.

 

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

Could be the start of a trend from the 06gfs where things push west quicker on each run!!

Well...a few days ago I mentioned that I would not be surprised if the thundery episode we saw 1-2 weeks ago was repeated in the near future and looking at the runs this morning, it looks like a possibility. My eyes as always are drawn to convective weather this time of year!  :spiteful:

 

However now for the pessimism. :vava: Just like it did before, I would expect the heat & storm potential being shown to decrease somewhat. The trough was modelled further and further West to begin with causing the 'upgrades' (if you liked warmth and storms) to show. But, as the higher resolution fine tuning kicked in, the tilt of the Low Pressure pressure pattern caused the warmest uppers and stormiest of storms to be reserved for the continent.

 

Still...some of us did still see thunderstorms, others stayed dry and warm but then not forgetting those who endured generally murky and cool weather...an unsettled mixed bag for sure, but not a total washout.

 

Nothing is certain, but this 'repeat' to some degree is my personal expectation. I could end up being way off the mark because it all looks a bit knife edge on which way it will go. Ah well...this would all be boring if we always knew the outcome right?  :rolleyes:

Edited by Chris K
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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Well...a few days ago I mentioned that I would not be surprised if the thundery episode we saw 1-2 weeks ago was repeated in the near future and looking at the runs this morning, it looks like a possibility. My eyes as always are drawn to convective weather this time of year!  :spiteful:

 

However now for the pessimism. :vava: Just like it did before, I would expect the heat & storm potential being shown to decrease somewhat. The trough was modelled further and further West to begin with causing the 'upgrades' (if you liked warmth and storms) to show. But, as the higher resolution fine tuning kicked in, the tilt of the Low Pressure pressure pattern caused the warmest uppers and stormiest of storms to be reserved for the continent.

 

Still...some of us did still see thunderstorms, others stayed dry and warm but then not forgetting those who endured generally murky and cool weather...an unsettled mixed bag for sure, but not a total washout.

 

Nothing is certain, but this 'repeat' to some degree is my personal expectation. I could end up being way off the mark because it all looks a bit knife edge on which way it will go. Ah well...this would all be boring if we always knew the outcome right?  :rolleyes:

If the synoptics remain the same at less than 60 hours out, I'll start to see the possibility. Looks 50/50 to me right now, it could easily be all swept onto the continent on the next run as has been the case many times ! I hope this run is right though :D

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Interestingly the 06z op wasn't really an outlier either. Probably just a rogue suite (always the 06z these days), but it does makes this afternoons runs interesting. Metoffice update starting to sound more summery too now. 

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Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire

So long as the plume provides thunderstorms, I'm all for it. If not, 24c days with a nice breeze will do me just fine for the next months. What the charts are showing for next weekend is 3 or 4c too much unless it leads to massive storms.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The 06z GFS ens 500mb anomaly is intensifying the upper low west of the UK for the weekend and still going for the take over of the warm air from the east later.Potential here for some drama.

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

As giiddy as people are getting i urge caution rather than false hope.

 

1) The plume if it happens looks quick and wet so there's no guarantee of more than a day of sunshine

 

2) The GFS operational today is a massive outlier when compared with the Euro and GEM.

 

In the context of all this division on the models i'll stick with the Euro.

 

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Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth

As giiddy as people are getting i urge caution rather than false hope.

 

1) The plume if it happens looks quick and wet so there's no guarantee of more than a day of sunshine

 

2) The GFS operational today is a massive outlier when compared with the Euro and GEM.

 

In the context of all this division on the models i'll stick with the Euro.

 

Posted Image

 

It will only get shifted east in time anyway. Usually does from my experience.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Early stages of GFS still shows some warm air starting to move up from France with the driest weather for those in the east initially on Friday though rain does move across with time some of it could be thundery given the warm air

 

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UKMO 850's at t96 and t120 look a little bit odd this afternoon

 

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GFS at the same time

 

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Must be an error with UKMO?

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Early stages of GFS still shows some warm air starting to move up from France with the driest weather for those in the east initially on Friday though rain does move across with time some of it could be thundery given the warm air

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

UKMO 850's at t96 and t120 look a little bit odd this afternoon

 

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GFS at the same time

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Must be an error with UKMO?

 

Good to see the UKMO speaking sense, i thought it was looking a bit toasty.

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Not quite the heat that the 6z was showing for Friday and Saturday but Sunday still sees a definite push of high pressure up from the Azores.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Good to see the UKMO speaking sense, i thought it was looking a bit toasty.

Wouldn't want to be in Scandinavia, 850s of +8 to -8C in 24 hours.... yikes.

Oh wait...  :rofl:

 

Anyway, plume still on for Saturday. The GEM joins the party bringing +12C 850s into the UK

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So that's the full sweep now. 

 

Edit here is the UKMO 850 chart

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Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

ignore meteociel t850's on the 12z run at the moment. faulty.

 

EDIT: fixed now but T96 remains incorrect. see gavin's post below

Edited by bluearmy
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