Convective / storm Discussion - 22nd May 2014 onwards

[SnowJoke]

Cloudy and wet here, moderate rain, but it's very large drops falling almost convective in nature so a hell of a lot of moisture in the atmosphere. Tonight looks a little crazy rainfall wise, GFS has the heaviest rainfall further north, but other models and Estofex feel the main threat being to the SE & EA, looking at the GFS the rainfall totals where it does make landfall will be excessive, I suspect there could well be some flooding reported tomorrow.  

[Biggin]

Mods, one of the tags at the top is doing my brain in please delete it

[Harry]

Mods, one of the tags at the top is doing my brain in please delete it

Would it be "lightening"? Doing my nut in too lolEuro4 model revised overnight activity south now too in line with NMM model (are they in tandem!?!?) Edited May 26, 2014 by Harry

[Lauren]

Can someone explain to me where this Level 1 from Estofex is coming from. Granted, I'm no weather expert, but the storm risk for the SE is quite low, the CAPE and LI aren't anything like what they were last week, so where is the threat coming from?

[Supacell]

Would it be "lightening"? Doing my nut in too lolEuro4 model revised overnight activity south now too in line with NMM model (are they in tandem!?!?)

 

I think NMM and WRF are in tandem but not sure about the Euro4. Is this not the former NAE model or am I mistaken?

[Sprites]

Can someone explain to me where this Level 1 from Estofex is coming from. Granted, I'm no weather expert, but the storm risk for the SE is quite low, the CAPE and LI aren't anything like what they were last week, so where is the threat coming from?

the level 1 for S.E. is for lots of rain.

[Sprites]

There are storms over France/Holland , maybe they could import later..

[Lauren]

the level 1 for S.E. is for lots of rain.

 

Oooooohhhh.

[Sprites]

Im so interested in the euro elections that if a tornado touched down in my street i wouldnt notice.

[Nick L]

Mods, one of the tags at the top is doing my brain in please delete it

 

Same here...but unfortunately I can't change it!

[Biggin]

Would it be "lightening"? Doing my nut in too lolEuro4 model revised overnight activity south now too in line with NMM model (are they in tandem!?!?)

It would Harry

[ancientsolar]

Possible sparks over Cornwall if those slow moving showers keep developing!

[Stormeh]

Here is a couple of pics I took of last weeks storms

[lassie23]

By Simon Keeling weatherweb.net!

 

Eastern England really is going to be feeling cold and windy in the rain on Tuesday.

There is some uncertainty over the exact location of the rain, for example a question over how far north the rain extends, but it seems Lincolnshire, south and east Yorkshire are at risk from the heaviest of the rain.

And the rain continues in the east overnight and into Wednesday bringing the risk of flooding.

 

No mention of thunder in the forecast! The metoffice are however still saying that thunderstorms are possible over the SE this afternoon!

[chapmanslade]

that last forecast on Mapantz I think I will need a boat to get around.   Any chance this a dream.  This going to be widespread issue with rainfall.  One of the model forecast in model forecasting talked 67mm rainfall here   .  Crikey we need some rainfall here but not months supply in a day.  How much rainfall did somerset levels get cause there flooding could there be similar issue these coming days.

Eh ! The levels were getting more than the local rain anyway as it drains through there but we were getting 40 to 50mm every other day for weeks on end !

OK 67mm is a lot in one day especially in May but far from unheard of and will cause localised flooding in prone spots

[William Grimsley]

The only way I'm going to get any shower activity today is by the sun coming out and getting the convection going or when the wind shifts W then NW later the showers to the W and NW of me drift this way. It probably won't happen. Any ideas?

[NUT]

Quite a strong shower rolling through here now

[Buckster]

this reminds me of a setup we had years ago (5+) when we had a strong easterly and imported some cracking storms overnight - I remember it clearly as it was quite unusual for the storms coming from the east

 

fingers crossed

[suffolkboy_]

this reminds me of a setup we had years ago (5+) when we had a strong easterly and imported some cracking storms overnight - I remember it clearly as it was quite unusual for the storms coming from the east

 

fingers crossed

 

I happened in May 2012, (the 2nd I think). An easterly wind where the storms popped up about 20 miles off the coast then continued to strengthen until they got 50 or so miles inland. We had nearly 40mm of rain that night and some of the worst flooding in  the village for years. The local bus came a cropper....

 

http://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2012-05-03/bus-passengers-stranded-in-flood/

[ancientsolar]

this reminds me of a setup we had years ago (5+) when we had a strong easterly and imported some cracking storms overnight - I remember it clearly as it was quite unusual for the storms coming from the east

 

fingers crossed

I remember some over night storms ~ They came in from the East.. nothing more than light showers.. but as they progressed towards Wales they/it became almost 1/3 to half the size of Wales, it was incredible to see such a thing develop. Amazing lightning and heavy rain! 

[TonyH]

Would it be "lightening"? Doing my nut in too lolEuro4 model revised overnight activity south now too in line with NMM model (are they in tandem!?!?)

I mentioned that the other day still not changed

[Knoxgar]

Right now:

[paul m]

Europe having a good time as usual lol

[William Grimsley]

A few light/moderate showers coming up from the SE now. Not at all special but if this W/NW wind kicks in soon, convergence could set them going.

[paul m]

A few light/moderate showers coming up from the SE now. Not at all special but if this W/NW wind kicks in soon, convergence could set them going.

Positive thinking lol..Never works up here!!!!!!