Convective / Storm Discussion - 21st May 2014 onwards

[snow raven]

Thunder galore for the SE this afternoon then re that warning update

 

Exactly my thinking - guaranteed storms for London now the weather warnings have been removed  

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Why would you take warnings down looking at the current radar! 

[ancientsolar]

Lightning detected in SE Wales.. time to look out my window!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en mental! West London looking good!

That new cell is really gunning for it now!!! 

[Panayiotis]

Heres the cell in all its glory I can hear distant rumbles every couple of seconds here! 

 

[Mapantz]

Why would you take warnings down looking at the current radar! 

Unfortunately, it makes sense to me, judging by the radar.

[Sainsbo]

If the sorm keeps moving north, it looks like I might be in for a shot at seeing something for once.

 

 

That's if it doesn't die on the way. Plenty of oppertunities today, though.

[pip22]

Storm just breaking out at Taunton, Dorset.

[sparky1972]

looks like we are going to miss out again,  bugger

[Bishop Brennan]

Heres the cell in all its glory I can hear distant rumbles every couple of seconds here! 

 

That is one beautiful sight. Thanks for sharing 

 

Bish

[JonGill]

Thunder here now, every 30 seconds or so.

[pip22]

Lightning had been spotted further north at Oxford now. Taunton cell is doing pretty well atm.

Edited May 22, 2014 by pip22

[Supacell]

The storms all seem to the west of the IOW currently but I think the east will fair better a little later:

 

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WATCH #021ISSUED: 1100UTC THURSDAY 22ND MAY 2014

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A WATCH FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS FOLLOWS:BRIEF, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING TORNADOES - EAST MIDLANDS,EAST ANGLIA.POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN, SOUTH EAST, SOUTH WEST ENGLAND,EAST MIDLANDS AND EAST ANGLIALARGE HAIL AND FLASH FLOODING - SOUTH EAST ENGLAND,EAST MIDLANDS AND EAST ANGLIA

IN EFFECT UNTIL 0000UTC FRIDAY 23RD MAY 2014

STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANIED BY VERY MOIST WARM AIR MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOGETHER WITH ANY SURFACE HEATING WILL CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.

DISCUSSION:THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE CONVECTIVE RISKS THROUGH THE PERIOD MAINLY IN THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE BUT POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS COULD BREAK OUT ANYWHERE.CONVECTION WILL START DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND 600-800J/kG CAPE AVAILABLE BY MID AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD APPEAR TO BE STRONGEST IN EASTERN ENGLAND (INCLUDING THE EAST MIDLANDS, EAST ANGLIA AND THE SOUTH EAST) WHERE MULTICELLS OR EVEN A BRIEF SUPERCELL IS VERY POSSIBLE. THESE ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND BRIEFLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN IN THE SAME AREAS AS THE SURFACE WINDS BACK SOUTH EASTERLY. THIS COULD POSSIBLY RESULT IN BRIEF TORNADIC EPISODES WHERE ANY SUPERCELLS FORM.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA

CONFIDENCE 70%

 

www.skywarn.org.uk

Edited May 22, 2014 by Supacell

[Nick L]

Why would you take warnings down looking at the current radar! 

 

It's only the SE that have been removed, and you can't really argue with it, just a few light showers on the radar for these parts!

[Jimmyh]

Surrey you reckon that cell is going nne or will a new one spring up???

[*Stormforce~beka*]

You look in a prime location

Sod all on it yet! Not even a 20-40 jobbie. Looks like its trotting west lol.

[Panayiotis]

Thunder here is distant but still very loud! Loving it!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

looks like we are going to miss out again,  bugger

Plenty of time yet mate, evening time looks prime for our area

[Noahjoe]

I think the reason the south east was removed is because there is a lot less certainty about it, but there is more potential

[Bobby]

Heres the cell in all its glory I can hear distant rumbles every couple of seconds here! 

 

Nice, send it up here please! Some dark clouds are gathering to my SE.

[Mapantz]

Worth keeping an eye on what I've circled..

[NO LONGER POSTING]

South easterns... All good things come to those that wait 

[PolarWarsaw]

Not seeing much in the way of storms here later, too far west IMO - showers are quite likely though. Just hope they are decent.

[shaky]

From what I saw of the 18z nmm last night things will kick off around the midlands from 6pm this evening!!later the better!!

[TonyH]

Nice, send it up here please! Some dark clouds are gathering to my SE.

Then here!