Convective / Storm Discussion - 21st May 2014 onwards

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Er... The storm in the channel looks like its moving North - North East..

[boogercj]

Cherbourg is really firing now. I think I'm going to be too far west to catch it though - is it headed for Dorset?

[Supacell]

To see a thunderstorm with that intensity leaving the French coast at before 10am has to bode well for us UK folk, providing it survives the channel. Even it it doesn't, the airmass producing it is on it's way here.

[Nick F]

The cell over Cherbourg really needs watching. Has potential and is heading towards Southampton. I reckon that it could turn severe. New cells building all the time on it's SE corner.

 

Looks like that multicell cluster could arrive across Dorset and Hants in next hour or so.

[Biggin]

Cherbourg is really firing now. I think I'm going to be too far west to catch it though - is it headed for Dorset?

 Quite active too http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

[chionomaniac]

It has potential if it survives the channel to develop into a supercell. Loving the look of it presently.

[cobbett]

The cell over Cherbourg really needs watching. Has potential and is heading towards Southampton. I reckon that it could turn severe. New cells building all the time on it's SE corner.

In Southampton at the moment with a nice view over the port so hoping for some fireworks then !

[Evening thunder]

Cell over Cherbourg is kicking out pretty frequent sefrics on Blitzortungs new realtime lightning map http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

 

Shame I look too far east of it and also that I have to do some work today, though looking good for Hampshire area if it does survive the channel.

 

The fact the air mass is cooler meaning less difference between the land and the sea could help it's survival possibly?

[Supacell]

It has potential if it survives the channel to develop into a supercell. Loving the look of it presently.

 

Would be great if it could then survive the journey north through the UK as it would be on a bee-line for me too. It already has a hook shape on it's western edge but most sferics are on the eastern side.

Edited May 22, 2014 by Supacell

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Well going by the track of the Lightning that storm is goona hit Brighton LOL!

[sparky1972]

Ah wow did you witness that tornado back in 2005?

Hi, i did not see the funnel itself, my lounge is at the back of my house and the tornado passed out the front, my garden had at the time 20 foot tall connifer trees that were bending over at such an angle as the wind picked up, garden furniture ended up a few doors down, a friend phoned to say he watched it and was down by the village church, i walked down and omg what a sight.

[SnowJoke]

Got woken around 4:30 am by some torrential rain hammering against the window, but nothing electrical in nature. Today does look very good for thunderstorms around the south Midlands  and south east, anywhere north and east from Wiltshire up to Lincolnshire later this afternoon and evening looks to be in a prime location for some very strong storms. Charts and model outputs look really good with large amounts of mid and surface based cape, as well as some strong shear later this afternoon. Wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of low topped super cells, or large hail producing storms today.

[sparky1972]

Got woken around 4:30 am by some torrential rain hammering against the window, but nothing electrical in nature. Today does look very good for thunderstorms around the south Midlands  and south east, anywhere north and east from Wiltshire up to Lincolnshire later this afternoon and evening looks to be in a prime location for some very strong storms. Charts and model outputs look really good with large amounts of mid and surface based cape, as well as some strong shear later this afternoon. Wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of low topped super cells, or large hail producing storms today.

hope you are right, still cool and cloudy here at the mo

[boogercj]

So what's the gut feel today then? Are we on for the best day of the week/year so far? Or will it have to go some to top Monday's Welsh goodness? 

[Nick L]

Well going by the track of the Lightning that storm is goona hit Brighton LOL!

 

Really? Looks like going to the western side of the IoW to me, nowhere near Brighton!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Hi, i did not see the funnel itself, my lounge is at the back of my house and the tornado passed out the front, my garden had at the time 20 foot tall connifer trees that were bending over at such an angle as the wind picked up, garden furniture ended up a few doors down, a friend phoned to say he watched it and was down by the village church, i walked down and omg what a sight.

Wow sounds pretty nasty! I'll never forget that day. Same day as El Brumo as well !!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Really? Looks like going to the western side of the IoW to me, nowhere near Brighton!

 

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

 

I was going by this 

[AWD]

Looks to me the cells heading towards the South Coast will start heading NNW towards SE Wales as they follow the rotation of the main rainband out West.

[Cold Winter]

Well going by the track of the Lightning that storm is goona hit Brighton LOL!

 

Looks to be heading more north/NNW to me, away from Brighton

[Willsy]

Looks like that multicell cluster could arrive across Dorset and Hants in next hour or so.

nice I'm right in the firing line. does look very dark to my South

[NO LONGER POSTING]

 

On a learning curve here but I was told to look at the 500hpa winds when looking at direction of thunderstorms?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Behind that storm looks like another disturbance that could fire up. Looks to have a more easterly component to it as well.

[Supacell]

 

On a learning curve here but I was told to look at the 500hpa winds when looking at direction of thunderstorms?

 

Using this chart it would take the storm directly over the Isle of Wight as the active part is currently sitting on the eastern edge of Cherbourg. A long way for it to survive to get anywhere near me though.

[TonyH]

Try 850s usually works better

[suffolkboy_]

Anyone heading out of Cherbourg on the ferry at the moment should be getting one hell of a display!

Edited May 22, 2014 by suffolkboy_