Convective / Storm Discussion - 21st May 2014 onwards

[Hodgheg]

Some very dramatic skies to the East of me earlier this evening. Was this a wall cloud? The white wispy stuff appeared for a few minutes or so. Will have to check the time-lapse cam!

I remember a day seeing something very similar. Heres a vid of it i found on youtube, not sure i posted the pics on here.

[A.J]

Fergies Points West forecast for The West Country and Central Southern England......enjoy

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast-video/21416951

[Mapantz]

Really intense echoes leaving Biscay!

Definitely cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder when that hits land, due to that intensity. I think some were getting a bit too excited about the prospect of storms in amongst it, but that chance will come tomorrow as a trough follows on behind.

[alibabba]

Looks like we are about to get a bit of rain here in skegness judging by the radar fingers crossed we get some thunder/ lightening too

[samadamsuk]

Ah we're like a dog waiting under the table for scraps off of the French banquet as usual - more stubborn hope than excitement I think. I'm not sure if that's slightly faulty radar returns off of Brest there, if not then that's pretty extreme!

[Karl83]

So that area of rain in NW France is heading for us in the SW. Nice forecast by Fergie.

 

Blitzortung app at the ready!

[Bobby]

Fergies Points West forecast for The West Country and Central Southern England......enjoy

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast-video/21416951

 

I like. Shame Fergie doesn't post here during thundery periods, as in winter. Would be interesting to hear the thoughts of pros. Come back!

 

Like the beard.

[Greeny]

Looks like we are about to get a bit of rain here in skegness judging by the radar fingers crossed we get some thunder/ lightening too

I don't want to drown your hopes (pun intended) but I'm under it now and there's not a single rumble unfortunately.

[alibabba]

Oh dammit! At least my plants will get some water

[scotto]

A few cells seem to be appearing and gathering in strength just to the south of Lincolnshire and are heading north west....

[suffolkboy_]

Oh dammit! At least my plants will get some water

 

You may be lucky. BBC forecast showed it becoming thundery once it left East Anglia and into Lincolnshire. I think it's more a case of nowcasting.

[Greeny]

You may be lucky. BBC forecast showed it becoming thundery once it left East Anglia and into Lincolnshire. I think it's more a case of nowcasting.

So is it cape and li that will become a factor or something else? How can this precipitation we're getting now re-intensify to produce thunder and lightning?

[Harsh Climate]

The rain towards peterborough seems to be intensifying

[Harry]

Hi Harry, I noticed you asked me in the previous thread about which model was showing high values of CAPE...today, again, UKV was putting >1500Jkg-1 of "dilute CAPE" (apologies if I failed to mention this before, not quite the same as CAPE, but still these values aren't often seen) across areas of the SE and London that are quite concerning, for tomorrow afternoon. Dependant on surface heating in the morning tomorrow (which should be relatively sunny in that area of the country), some deeply convective t-storms may be triggered with localised accumulations of up to 40mm/24hr for some isolated areas.It's a complex set-up at the moment, what with tonight's frontal zone containing embedded instability moving northwards from France into the SW..MCS not off the cards in SE as high WBPT air advected northwards...then you've got a separate conveyor all together that is beginning to interact with the first feature. Behind this will be massively unstable air!

Cheers mate, very helpful...I am gagging for some thunder and if it's going to be tonight, wicked...rain is fast approaching and haven't observed anything yet.Tomorrow is looking interesting and hopefully something will materialise

[Raidan]

Hmmm Peter Gibbs seems to think that area of rain heading for the SW will bring heavy downpours and thunder and lighting.Living in Bristol I know all to well it wont happen not here anyway.Good luck to the rest of you.

[dave reid]

Evening all

In Christchurch Dorset and Im liking the chance for this way in next few hrs. Convergance zone pushing up in next couple hrs, lifted index -1/-2, vertical sheer and a bit of CAPE to play with.

That gap in the rain / storms moving out of france is due to the Lifted index in that area being possitive I think, as shown on the forcast maps?

 

Dave

[Azazel]

I remember a day seeing something very similar. Heres a vid of it i found on youtube, not sure i posted the pics on here.

 

 

beautiful capture that - definitely a meso in there IMO

[Marcus_surfer]

There's absolutely no lightning detected west of paris , all the action further north and east , and just watching the bbc forecast saying all ending with a bang is rubbish because all I see is some heavy rain pushing north :/ http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&subpage_0=10

[Eskimo]

Louise Lear: "Good luck trying to sleep where the thunderstorms do develop over the next few hours." 

[Speedway Slider]

Ok peeps, "the split" visible on rain radar, but not on vis-sat, what are it's consequences and what us likely to happen through the night due to the "split"

Cheers

Speedway Slider..

[dave48]

I am honestly surprised by the extent of the BBC's ramping on this one...I don't see the potential for widespread active thunderstorms tonight.

 

I am looking forward to being proven wrong of course!

 

Tomorrow does, however, look pretty good.

 

Estofex have their forecast out now, a severe threat for parts in their opinion.

Edited May 21, 2014 by dave48

[Marcus_surfer]

Louise Lear: "Good luck trying to sleep where the thunderstorms do develop over the next few hours."

She should have said good luck driving in time to Belgium to see these storms

[Muffelchen]

Seems to be outflow boundaries or suchlike on the leading edge of both precipitation bands and these are setting off narrow bands of intense precipitation as the bands themselves propagate forwards. Interesting to watch but all the lightning seems to have gone for now, except randomly in the SW approaches. What's that about?

[Gordon Webb]

yep tomorrow looks more likely for those that want them

[Arnie Pie]

Oh well.....Looks like another late one......Streaming on to try and catch a flash or two over E Midlands way... if the ppn band on the way..... desides to intensify