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Although GFS doesn't looks too interested in the thunder tonight, as that mass of heavy rain moves out of France, Met Office UK forecast outlook does mention embedded CBs and isolated TS spreading in

Some quick thoughts on Cape and Instability.  Lets say you have a parcel of air at the surface and it has a temperature of 20 C and a Dewpoint of 14 C. As this air parcel rises it would cool at a rat

All stopped now. Here's the back edge of the cell that's just left the south coast.  

Posted Images

The area of rain to the southwest looks much more potent than the area SSE. 60+mm/hr and intensifying by the look at the last few radar sequences. Unfortunately not electrified, but you can't have everything. :/

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Yep, clear split showing as it starts to pivot, and the gap is in line with us.

It will coincide with the strong PVA, so it will develop and pep up more but suffice to say, rainfall won't be as bad as other areas.
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Bbc seem pretty confident of thunder and lightning tonight 'If the torrential rain doesn't wake you up, the loud bangs might.'

 

 

As other's have already said this will come down to nowcasting, so strap ya seat belt on this rides gunna be buuumpy ..!  :bomb:

 

focus on the word might and the BBC will always say the same thing even when the possibility has died down somewhat just not to look foolish

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I wish I were in Luxembourg tonight that line is heading directly for them!Anyone know the mechanics of lightning? it just seems weird to me that the rain has kept its intensity but the lightning has pretty much dissipated. 

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Paul Hudson has said Thundery showers for us up here too

 

 

Let's hope we can get a good event tommorow  after missing out yesterday paul  :nonono:. I think at very least we should see some torrential rainfall, but I think it's a good lightening storm that we all want 

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Yep, clear split showing as it starts to pivot, and the gap is in line with us.

Ohhh the amount of times this has happened in recent years for this area.. :)Good thing I was only expecting rain anyway! Can't be disappointed if it stays dry!
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Mapantz, on 21 May 2014 - 21:51, said:

It will coincide with the strong PVA, so it will develop and pep up more but suffice to say, rainfall won't be as bad as other areas.

 

Looks fairly intense down there, would prefer a light show to copious amounts of rain. Looks like we will miss out on both.

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Forecast for tonight: Thundery rain moving up from France will more than likely be missing the thundery bit. Only the month of may, but its more than 10 years since a MCS

 held it together and moved due north.

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I think us Northerners have a good chance tomorrow afternoon of home growners :)

 

according to the bbc most places south might

 

take that as you will

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Chris K, on 21 May 2014 - 21:55, said:

Ohhh the amount of times this has happened in recent years for this area.. :)Good thing I was only expecting rain anyway! Can't be disappointed if it stays dry!

Yeah a bit of rain overnight for the garden & fill up the water butts, nothing to much will do nicely, followed by a day of warm sunshine and showers looks on the cards.

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That's a huge cumulonimbus cloud approaching the south midlands from the London area and France!!just take a look at how huge the damn thing is on sat24!!things might develop further later!!fingers crossed!!feels humid and warm out there!current temp 16/17 degrees!!

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The main area of interest is further east towards the coast. Ok its had a few detections but I'm glad I didn't venture out as it just doesn't seem to be intense enough and now behind it seems like only precipitation. As it stands it doesn't look that promising.

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That's a huge cumulonimbus cloud approaching the south midlands from the London area and France!!just take a look at how huge the damn thing is on sat24!!things might develop further later!!fingers crossed!!feels humid and warm out there!current temp 16/17 degrees!!

 

 

I was just looking at the whole thing on sat24 too, yes there's a big gap in precipitation but not within the clouds. Who knows the dry area could be really brewing up in the atmosphere/clouds and once it crosses the channel and loses the heat from the french land mass, it all comes down with a bang once it crosses the channel, just a thought?

Edited by Harsh Climate
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Some very dramatic skies to the East of me earlier this evening. Was this a wall cloud? The white wispy stuff appeared for a few minutes or so. Will have to check the time-lapse cam!

 

 

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post-5953-0-35091900-1400706981_thumb.jp

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Look how rapidly these showers develop tomorrow afternoon across central areas on the NMM - explosive!

 

1pm: Posted Image 3pm: Posted Image 5pm Posted Image

Convergence zone setting up, plenty of cape, vorticity off the scale. Could be some severe weather I think

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

They don't move anywhere fast so flash flooding potential, if it develops like that anyway

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Had a lovely sunset here. Red and orange. fiery.

 

Happy shepherds then. Not so happy lover of storms. 

 

Anyway looks like we *may* get some light rain soon according to the radar, but any thing could happen.

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Look how rapidly these showers develop tomorrow afternoon across central areas on the NMM - explosive!

 

Liking the look of those charts from an IMBY point of view :)

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Hi AJ, if you scroll back through the posts you'll see Nick F has done an analysis as too has BrickFielder.

 

Hi Harry, I noticed you asked me in the previous thread about which model was showing high values of CAPE...today, again, UKV was putting >1500Jkg-1 of "dilute CAPE" (apologies if I failed to mention this before, not quite the same as CAPE, but still these values aren't often seen) across areas of the SE and London that are quite concerning, for tomorrow afternoon. Dependant on surface heating in the morning tomorrow (which should be relatively sunny in that area of the country), some deeply convective t-storms may be triggered with localised accumulations of up to 40mm/24hr for some isolated areas.It's a complex set-up at the moment, what with tonight's frontal zone containing embedded instability moving northwards from France into the SW..MCS not off the cards in SE as high WBPT air advected northwards...then you've got a separate conveyor all together that is beginning to interact with the first feature. Behind this will be massively unstable air!

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Thanks Mark. I suppose the question from a layman such as me would be how much margin of error is there in the modelled WBPT plume ? (Living in Cirencester!) - will it effectively wrap round the low more across the south if the low deepens more than modelled etc

 

sam

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