Convective / Storm Discussion - 21st May 2014 onwards

[Neilsouth]

Thunder heard

[The PIT]

Looking at the radar unless the direction changes this will be a South East far east coast event only. Elsewhere just looks damp however plenty of time for things to change.

[Gordon Webb]

there is a less intense rain stretchng west which is also moving north and it's this band which i think is expected to move across most of england and wales overnight but at the moment that is nowehre near as heavy as that stuff further east

[Nick L]

This is the very definition of a Kent clipper!

[Supacell]

Seriously?

 

Well, in terms of forecasting storms it is a long way off but there seems to be indications of it. Precipitation chart below, contours are precipitation where shaded is convective precipitation:

 

 

Usual pushes east though would take this into Benelux so probably not worth thinking about yet (smacks own wrist). On tonight's note - what effect would increasing vertical vorticity have on this area of rain as it looks to increase dramatically overnight - first chart 3am, second chart 6pm.

 

 

Edited May 21, 2014 by Supacell

[Gordon Webb]

personally speaking I think theres more chance tomorrow when the actual front has gone through rather than tonight which seems to taking the immigrant path from france into the se

[Summer Sun]

Can I just enquire as to where tomorrows rain is going to come from? the beeb the other day said it would be moving up from France but that band is currently moving NE just clipping the SE, are we going to have another band of rain later on which will cross the UK?

[Muffelchen]

The stuff in the channel seem to be a little less electrified than earlier but (I need to pinch myself) it does seem to be moving due North now with some of the convection further South around Le Havre looking to have a very slight West of North component to it. If you run the NW animation and watch closely, i.e. if you are REALLY, REALLY sad like me, you can just about make this out - or is it wishful thinking? You decide........

 

I was watching this band an hour or so ago and was convinced it was going NE over Belgium but there has deffo been some movement left and it is certainly going North now, if not West of North.

 

Is this game on then?

 

Tries to remain calm....deep breaths......

Edited May 21, 2014 by Muffelchen

[Knoxgar]

something is trying to develop to my south-west http://www.niederschlagsradar.de/h3.aspx?j=-3&type=loop1stunde&regio=sbr&c=1 (my location is on the center right edge a lil bit west of that letter "M")

 

Temperature is 27°C, dew point 14°C

Edited May 21, 2014 by Knoxgar

[Gordon Webb]

even the met office rain forecast for 22:00 only shows rain the se and at current rate i would have thought that heavy rain would be in north sea by then

 

I will point out again the weather warnings for the e/se is a different warning with is due to expire at 23.55

[Costa Del Fal]

Blitzortung shows the sferics nicely curving round the Kent coastline. LOL.

[Buckster]

looks like nothing for S-East tonight

 

why the weather warnings ? or are they really just for the very coast ?

[Gordon Webb]

here is the detail

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=ee&fcTime=1400626800

 

read todays and tomorrows and you'll the details which might explain current

[poseidon]

Looks to be going by the book - good call from Captain Shortwave a day or so ago, who highlighted the daily eastwards drift in the models.

NMM showed the majority of the theta-e going up the North sea.

[Buckster]

bust for tonight

 

lets hope for something tomorrow

[Dancerwithwings]

Can I just enquire as to where tomorrows rain is going to come from? the beeb the other day said it would be moving up from France but that band is currently moving NE just clipping the SE, are we going to have another band of rain later on which will cross the UK?

The low to the West of France atm will start to kick northwards, in so will pull up and westwards what's in France and the low in itself will intensify.

Edited May 21, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[Neilsouth]

looks like nothing for S-East tonight

 

why the weather warnings ? or are they really just for the very coast ?

 

Thunder and rain here

[Supacell]

even the met office rain forecast for 22:00 only shows rain the se and at current rate i would have thought that heavy rain would be in north sea by then

 

I will point out again the weather warnings for the e/se is a different warning with is due to expire at 23.55

 

I should think the SE warning expires at 23:55 because the Met Office expect the heaviest rain and storms will be moving off from this region by this time. After this there is no separate warning out for the rest of us as you say, although the warning for tomorrow covers it. They may issue further warnings this evening for other areas overnight if deemed necessary.

Edited May 21, 2014 by Supacell

[Mapantz]

Can I just enquire as to where tomorrows rain is going to come from? the beeb the other day said it would be moving up from France but that band is currently moving NE just clipping the SE, are we going to have another band of rain later on which will cross the UK?

It's an occluded front in association with a small area of low pressure, the precipitation in the south east and south west of the front will be the heaviest, In the middle (likely to be Hampshire and Dorset) the rain shouldn't be as bad.It moves north tomorrow, leaving behind heavy showers. Edited May 21, 2014 by Mapantz

[TonyH]

bust for tonight

 

lets hope for something tomorrow

Come on its only 7.55 in the evening You are quite close now it would not take much to reach you this evening.

[Harry]

Thunder and rain here

Not a drop here rather unsurprisingly - going to take something special with this low to get some of that instability this way

[Gordon Webb]

It's an concluded front in association with a small area of low pressure, the precipitation in the south east and south west of the front will be the heaviest, In the middle (likely to be Hampshire and Dorset) the rain shouldn't be as bad.It moves north tomorrow, leaving behind heavy showers.

 

and thats where i think the better chance for those that want storms may get them

 

and of course the sun is also setting but I'm not sure how much impact that will have

Edited May 21, 2014 by Gordon Webb

[DAVID SNOW]

It's an concluded front in association with a small area of low pressure, the precipitation in the south east and south west of the front will be the heaviest, In the middle (likely to be Hampshire and Dorset) the rain shouldn't be as bad.It moves north tomorrow, leaving behind heavy showers.

 

Concluded front, well that's the end of that then.. Just kidding

[Buckster]

lol was about to crack same joke

[Summer Sun]

It's an concluded front in association with a small area of low pressure, the precipitation in the south east and south west of the front will be the heaviest, In the middle (likely to be Hampshire and Dorset) the rain shouldn't be as bad.It moves north tomorrow, leaving behind heavy showers.

 

 

The low to the West of France atm will start to kick northwards, in so will pull up and westwards what's in France and the low in itself will intensify.

 

 

Thanks guy's