Convective / Storm Discussion - 21st May 2014 onwards

[Dami]

oi, storms this way please!

 

oh, well gutted from Bedford. Maybe tomorrow then

[Dancerwithwings]

Yes, the low pressure south west of it is it's core I think, and its gradually being pulled back west, like it's one of the arms of a spinning spiral galaxy...! Do you see what I mean..?

Yes that's how i see things happening later, you can clearly see the low to the West of France, as the low starts to kick northwards,

that'll pull on what's over France and feed the very heavy rain towards the UK.

 

Infrared Cloud radar, shows heights.

 

Rain radar, You can start to see that here!

Edited May 21, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[Hathers]

Peter Gibbs latest forecast is pretty good. Mentions lots of lightning associated with the heavy rain.

[Panayiotis]

False detections I'm afraid

Really? They are still going off int that area, maybe someone on the coast can confirm?

[Darren Bown]

Yes that's how i see things happening later, you can clearly see the low to the West of France, as the low starts to kick northwards,

that'll pull on what's over France and feed the very heavy rain towards the UK.

 

Infrared Cloud radar, show heights.

 

Rain radar, You can start to see that here!

That drier air mixing is really obvious to the west of France. Fingers crossed that will aid with the storms.

[A.J]

False detections I'm afraid

on second thoughts....a few more strikes detected by Blitzortung.....not initially showing up on other detectors, but now showing, midway between Dover and Calais

[lottiekent]

False detections I'm afraid

Yep, haven't seen or heard a thing. If there was a storm just off the coast I'd have heard it by now.

[Darren Bown]

The radar seems to match the strikes in the channel, Dover is getting hit hard by the looks of it!

[A.J]

Yep, haven't seen or heard a thing. If there was a storm just off the coast I'd have heard it by now.

nearest strikes are being detected about 20 miles SE or you, tracking NE....the distance would explain why you haven't heard anything...A real shame it's not dark yet or you'd be seeing a few flickers

[TonyH]

on second thoughts....a few more strikes detected by Blitzortung.....not initially showing up on other detectors, but now showing, midway between Dover and Calais

Those are real in the SoD

[A.J]

Those are real in the SoD

looks that way, moving NE though

[TonyH]

looks that way, moving NE though

NNE but yes a Kent Clipper for now

[lottiekent]

nearest strikes are being detected about 20 miles SE or you, tracking NE....the distance would explain why you haven't heard anything...A real shame it's not dark yet or you'd be seeing a few flickers

I'm now looking out of the second floor to the east and the sky is very dark and I have heard four deep rumbles but no lightning.The houses in the distance are all that lay between me and the Channel less than a quarter of a mile away - in that direction (as the crow flies) is Calais.

[Liam J]

Looks like those intense downpours running up the channel are going clip the far SE, some lightening not too far away either! 

[poseidon]

Essex weather twitter reporting "New Met Office warning issued (all Essex) for this evening. Risk of frequent lightning, gusty winds and 20 mm in less than an hour." Not sure I understand how though, unless the winds steer the storms west again somehow.

[William Grimsley]

There is less activity than there was in France, earlier. I don't know how I'm going to get this torrential rain tonight unless it convects out of nowhere.

Edited May 21, 2014 by William Grimsley

[Gordon Webb]

as i am not a fan of this type of weather as you know

 

those intense downpours in the east can I assume that there not the ones going to come through midlands later on or is it the band that is sitting slightly further south and west

Edited May 21, 2014 by Gordon Webb

[A.J]

I'm now looking out of the second floor to the east and the sky is very dark and I have heard four deep rumbles but no lightning.

The houses in the distance are all that lay between me and the Channel less than a quarter of a mile away - in that direction (as the crow flies) is Calais. http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/master/attachicon.gifimage.jpg

cool, good luck 

[Petorious]

Guys I also use this which use to be really good, though it seems to be off line more than online these days.

 

http://www.nowcast.co.uk/lightning/strikedisplay.htm?&L=adrian_1986@aol.com|50008#

 

Anyone else use this as its now showing two spherics to the east of my location about 40 miles away, its also quite dark out to the south east of me.

 

Pete

 

Also checking this wind map suggests as the storms track NE they will swing a bit to the west.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-348.19,45.81,1334

 

And another strike now just off or around Colchester way.

Edited May 21, 2014 by Petorious

[Gordon Webb]

people should also bear in mind that the warning for the se and e for these storms is not the same warning for the overnight period for the rest of england/wales because these warning mention thunderstorms and frequesnt lightning more especially the further east you are while the wider warnings suggest a band or rain with possibly some thunder/convection embedded within it

[A.J]

up to date lightning grab for those in Kent.....

 

[Supacell]

Another import looking likely Friday night too if the GFS is to be believed 

[Hirudine]

Crikey, that rainfall in the Channel looks intense! Glad I'm not on a ferry- I'd probably be looking at the bottom of a  brown paper bag otherwise.

[dwalton]

Kent clipper it is then. Heavy rain will eventually move up for a bit in Sussex but can't see how it will ramp up through Sussex. Another bust day/night again me thinks

[William Grimsley]

Another import looking likely Friday night too if the GFS is to be believed 

Seriously?