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Convective / Storm Discussion - 21st May 2014 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W

yep raining here ever so slightly

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W

well I am not looking forward to this afternoon best thing to hope for is that they miss my locale

 

edit 05:05 still lashing it down here but there is a end in sight

Edited by Gordon Webb
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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

Estofex,

 

post-5986-0-88320500-1400736104_thumb.pn

 

Eastern France into south-east British Isles, Benelux, and western GermanyA dynamic weather pattern is forecast for eastern France and western Germany. In the wake of the cold front, dry air advection is initially expected. Additionally, clouds and showers reaming from overnights convection may limit low-level heating. However, to the north of another mid-level jet streak that is located across southern France at noon, low-level backing winds are forecast, and a southerly flow will result in moisture increase. Given increasing lapse rates due to DCVA, some CAPE is possible. Storms are forecast to form along the convergence from eastern France to the south-eastern British Isles during the afternoon, spreading north-eastward and clustering.

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Posted
  • Location: Barrowby, (nr. Grantham) Sth Lincs (200ft ASL- ish)
  • Weather Preferences: The worse the better!
  • Location: Barrowby, (nr. Grantham) Sth Lincs (200ft ASL- ish)

Still pee ing it down, buckets positioned, hopefully they'll hold!

Hi, SS, Hope your buckets are holding out! 

It looks like you are in a ever so slightly drier interlude at the mo but I fear you may have mush more before the day is out :(

 

I think the band is starting to stall, my art and design department has come up with a wonderful overlay for the awesome Netweather radar, which tries to illustrate current movement, this seems to tie in with wind plots also.

Quite interesting little vortices on the back of the band, almost like where parts of the main body of precip are being peeled off and sent North East...

post-5982-0-68905300-1400736315_thumb.jp

 

Radar grab courtesy Netweather

 

Edit;

Forgot to add, I was awoken by the rain banging on the window this morning (0520ish) with a strong wind from the north. As I type the rain has pepped up again. About 10mm fallen here in the last couple of hours.

 

G

Edited by Gazarhya
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Posted
  • Location: Barrowby, (nr. Grantham) Sth Lincs (200ft ASL- ish)
  • Weather Preferences: The worse the better!
  • Location: Barrowby, (nr. Grantham) Sth Lincs (200ft ASL- ish)

Just been outside and was taken with how fast the low level clouds are moving north to south, even though the rain band is moving the opposite direction.

As the below NMM grabs clearly illustrate, the low level shear is quite clear, along with the convergence zones.

The surface (ish) zone is set to move slowly north throughout the day (very slowly), whereas the 700hpa zone moves a little faster, while rotating anti-clockwise, sort of ending a little west, but aligned with the spine of the country, before becoming less defined.

post-5982-0-97947300-1400737462_thumb.pn

Band movement

post-5982-0-91720600-1400737463_thumb.pn

Low level movement.

Screen shots courtesy Netweather Extra

 

Bits of blue sky showing here now and if the cloud clears quick enough down south, to get some heating, I think we could be in for an interesting day.... :good:

 

 

G

Edited by Gazarhya
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Posted
  • Location: Wyck Nr Alton- Hants
  • Location: Wyck Nr Alton- Hants

Beautiful sunny morning here- heavy rain/ thunderstorms- I don't think so. Maybe a couple of heavy downpours this afternoon

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

As expected, lots of rain and no thunder and lightning.

 

Had 19.8mm in a two hour period between 2-4am

Edited by SteveB
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Good thing is, the sun is shining, so my fear of having cloudy skies after the rain cleared through is unfounded.

 

Maybe some convection will develop today, BBC forecast looks promising...

Edited by SteveB
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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

Good thing is, the sun is shining, so my fear of having cloudy skies after the rain cleared through is unfounded.

 

May some convection will develop today, BBC forecast looks promising...

It's already there in France.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

It's already there in France.

 

Yeah, that's a good sign. Have a good feeling about today.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

I wonder if today will be the last real day of thunderstorm risk. I would really like some action over tomorrow and the weekend. But, it's looking less likely now. Views?

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl

With the rain band making steady progress north and the sun already out down south,you would like to think there would be akot of standing water to evaporate and with other factors looking half decent,could be a good day imo.Good luck all.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

In case anyone didn't see it when it was issued last night, there is a slight risk of severe storms today:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

A bit E don't you think?

The first convective shower has developed over Honiton and is moving NW. It is currently moderate rain, at this stage.

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Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs

not holding out much hope for today really, very cool and cloudy here today, had a bit of rain overnight but no storms, but hey, you never know, if i remember a few years ago the day started like this and in the afternoon we had a massive storm and a tornado came through the village i live in, but really, just a good storm will do, lol

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

A bit E don't you think?

The first convective shower has developed over Honiton and is moving NW. It is currently moderate rain, at this stage.

 

The risk risk of thunderstorms covers your area, it's the slight risk of severe storms which doesn't.  

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Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow events / Wind storms
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex

Ditto, first time this week that either of the two, Netweather or Estofex have issued SLIGHT warnings for severe weather, :D

 

Up to now it's always just been a boring old thunderstorm risk 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W

what is the main risks for today by that i mean dangers

 

is it heavy rain , frequent lightning etc etc and what direction are they expectred to travel

 

I'm trying to prepare myself because i find days like this very stressful and i've got about 12 hours of today to get through

I wonder if today will be the last real day of thunderstorm risk. I would really like some action over tomorrow and the weekend. But, it's looking less likely now. Views?

 

bbc breakfast forecast does show showers again for tomorrow possibly with thunder but i think today is the major day

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Today reminds me of June 15th 2007. On this day a band of heavy rain moved through during the early hours from SE to NW and was followed by a warm, humid airmass with a defined convergence zone. Despite the warm airmass the temperatures did not rise that high (high teens I believe) but huge thunderstorms broke out over the East Midlands and I witnessed a funnel cloud near Hinckley. Unfortunately I then got caught in traffic as the storm moved north and it moved off - but I got home to find Derby had seen it move over with frequent lightning and torrential rain.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W

well temps for my part of the world are forecast to be 16 degress but i suspect thare are plenty more factors in play but the midlands is a large area so i may get lucky and miss out on the worst

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