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Convective / Storm Discussion - 21st May 2014 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire

The strike near exeter shows up on meteoradar.

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Posted
  • Location: Lowestoft, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summers, Snowy Winters
  • Location: Lowestoft, Suffolk

We had a flash of lightning around 10pm in Lowestoft. The rain is still persisting, it has been a very wet night here in East Anglia.

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL

Sporadic large convective drops of rain been falling in the center of mk for ten minutes or so, eerily calm wind wise, really feels like it is going to do something soon even have that musty smell in the air that normally accompanies a thunderstorm.

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

Does anyone elses radar here on Netweather keep going blank pretty much at midnight recently? Takes a while to get the radar back sometime after midnight. :(

Yep same issue here, only updates normally again at 1am. BTW metoffice lightning detector shows more strikes down Cornwall area?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observations/cardiff-cardiff#?tab=map&map=Lightning&fcTime=1400670000&zoom=7&lon=-4.72&lat=50.79

Edited by Panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

Lassie! Long time no speak. Not expecting anything to happen here until at least rush hour.

Hey LOL! I should be up to my elbows in rain by now, not a drop! Not even drizzle!

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

The current radar image is a thing of beauty! It marks out the triple point occlusion perfectly.

There's not a breath of wind here either, got quite wet walking back from the pub.

post-15177-0-39210400-1400714351_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder - not necessarily at the same time!
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL

Stuff is now beginning to develop in 'the gap' now.

 

Also there have been strikes in the SW for a while on NW radar (but not on Lightning maps...) so I don't think these a re rogues, they just seem to be displaced somewhat from the precipitation band. There are a few SW of Ireland too.

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Tomorrow looking quite interesting now. Tonight is a bust even for the likes of some parts over the continent as they were issued a level 1 or 2 by estofex lol

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Yep same issue here, only updates normally again at 1am. BTW metoffice lightning detector shows more strikes down Cornwall area?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observations/cardiff-cardiff#?tab=map&map=Lightning&fcTime=1400670000&zoom=7&lon=-4.72&lat=50.79

Sadly the lightning returns are probably false as they are in areas with no precipitation. :(

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To be honest I'm not convinced on thunderstorms tonight. Heavy rain, but most of the rain is non-convective on the 18z NMM:

 

Rain Posted Image  Convective rain Posted Image

Looking at the various parameters the ingredients are there for some heavy rain but not thunderstorms apart from the odd rumble. That mass of rain to the SW isn't electrified now and I don't see what's going to change. The prost-frontal environment tomorrow looks good though, I'd wager some thunderstorms and heavy downpours across SW England, Wales and the Midlands/E England in the afternoon and evening.

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Bobby
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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

If there is any lightning round this way, it will be 4am-ish as shown by Fergie. Keep the faith.

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Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire

Yet sferics way out in the North Sea...from the Kent clipper of earlier.

Sadly, the ingredients are in that area for storms...

 

Was thinking I was going to miss the rain all together being in the gap. But now the gap is filling!

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST

post-1052-0-39408700-1400715073_thumb.pn

Synopsis
A deep upper trough covers western Europe during Thursday, while a ridge extends north across eastern Europe. Between the two, a deep warm and moist southerly flow covers much of Europe including southern Britain. An occluded frontal zone remains slow moving across northwest Britain, while another complex frontal zone moves up from the south, slow-moving towards the west, lying Cornwall to Northumberland by 12z, following the front will be clearer but unstable conditions across S/SE England, E Anglia and Midlands into the afternoon.

... SLGT RISK for S ENGLAND, MIDLANDS and E ANGLIA ...

Heavy rain with embedded Cb bringing isolated thunder along occluded frontal zone will continue to push north across England and Wales during Thursday morning, reaching N England by 12z, there is a risk of torrential rain and gusty winds with this zone.

Following the front from the south, a plume of rather steep mid-level lapse rates accompanied by increasingly warm moist air at the surface will push up from the south across the above areas during the day, becoming increasingly unstable as surface heating increases in sunny spells likely to develop by late morning from the south. Depending on how quickly surface heating develops in the morning, several 100 j/kg CAPE by the afternoon seems possible ... combine this with increasing divergence aloft as the left exit region of a strong southerly 500-300mb jet moves up across SE England and surface wind convergence - convection should quickly develop as early as late morning. Organised convection seems likely given moderately strong instability - particularly towards eastern England ... where vertical shear will be strongest, where conditions may support multicell or even one or two supercell storms - capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts.There are signs that surface winds will back to a more southeasterly direction through the day too across SE England, E Midlands and E Anglia, which will strengthen low-level shear and enhance the risk of a tornado forming with stronger rotating mesocyclones under any supercell storms.

... SW ENGLAND and S/E WALES ...

Active frontal zone will spread heavy rain and embedded CBs with isolated thunderstorms across SW England and S/E Wales during early Thursday morning - bringing a risk of localised flooding and gusty winds for a time before brighter conditons moving in from the south later may allow scattered heavy showers and isolated less-organised storms to develop from surface heating, with a risk of localised flooding, hail and gusty winds.

... IRELAND ..

A few isolated to scattered storms may develop with any surface heating across Ireland during the afternoon, no severe weather is expected with convection here today.
 
Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Near Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Near Hull

 

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifconvmap_220514.png

Synopsis

A deep upper trough covers western Europe during Thursday, while a ridge extends north across eastern Europe. Between the two, a deep warm and moist southerly flow covers much of Europe including southern Britain. An occluded frontal zone remains slow moving across northwest Britain, while another complex frontal zone moves up from the south, slow-moving towards the west, lying Cornwall to Northumberland by 12z, following the front will be clearer but unstable conditions across S/SE England, E Anglia and Midlands into the afternoon.

... SLGT RISK for S ENGLAND, MIDLANDS and E ANGLIA ...

Heavy rain with embedded Cb bringing isolated thunder along occluded frontal zone will continue to push north across England and Wales during Thursday morning, reaching N England by 12z, there is a risk of torrential rain and gusty winds with this zone.

Following the front from the south, a plume of rather steep mid-level lapse rates accompanied by increasingly warm moist air at the surface will push up from the south across the above areas during the day, becoming increasingly unstable as surface heating increases in sunny spells likely to develop by late morning from the south. Depending on how quickly surface heating develops in the morning, several 100 j/kg CAPE by the afternoon seems possible ... combine this with increasing divergence aloft as the left exit region of a strong southerly 500-300mb jet moves up across SE England and surface wind convergence - convection should quickly develop as early as late morning. Organised convection seems likely given moderately strong instability - particularly towards eastern England ... where vertical shear will be strongest, where conditions may support multicell or even one or two supercell storms - capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts.There are signs that surface winds will back to a more southeasterly direction through the day too across SE England, E Midlands and E Anglia, which will strengthen low-level shear and enhance the risk of a tornado forming with stronger rotating mesocyclones under any supercell storms.

... SW ENGLAND and S/E WALES ...

Active frontal zone will spread heavy rain and embedded CBs with isolated thunderstorms across SW England and S/E Wales during early Thursday morning - bringing a risk of localised flooding and gusty winds for a time before brighter conditons moving in from the south later may allow scattered heavy showers and isolated less-organised storms to develop from surface heating, with a risk of localised flooding, hail and gusty winds.

... IRELAND ..

A few isolated to scattered storms may develop with any surface heating across Ireland during the afternoon, no severe weather is expected with convection here today.

 

 

Ah im right on the line of any storms tomorrow, going to be one of those days where if its slightly north it'll be great, but if slightly south it'll be pants.

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Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m

Well Nick, i like the look of that, i can go to bed with a smile on my face now  :wink:

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Posted
  • Location: Highworth (122m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and a cracking thunderstorm
  • Location: Highworth (122m ASL)

Estofex (for 22nd May 2014)

"A level 1 was issued for eastern France, Benelux, and south-eastern British Isles mainly for tornadoes and severe wind gusts."

Posted Image

"A dynamic weather pattern is forecast for eastern France and western Germany. In the wake of the cold front, dry air advection is initially expected. Additionally, clouds and showers reaming from overnights convection may limit low-level heating. However, to the north of another mid-level jet streak that is located across southern France at noon, low-level backing winds are forecast, and a southerly flow will result in moisture increase. Given increasing lapse rates due to DCVA, some CAPE is possible. Storms are forecast to form along the convergence from eastern France to the south-eastern British Isles during the afternoon, spreading north-eastward and clustering.

Main focus of severe weather will be the nose of a low-level jet spreading north across eastern France. Latest GFS indicates 20 m/s winds at 850 hPa, resulting in strong low-level vertical wind shear and curved hodographs (0-1 km bulk shear 15 m/s and SRH near 200 m²/s²). Current thinking is that low-topped supercells can form that move north-eastwards. These storms may be capable of producing tornadoes, while the threat moves from eastern France to the Benelux countries and south-eastern British Isles in the evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts are also not ruled out."

-> Source: Estofex -> forecasts

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

The rain has really ramped up here now, the red echo's have just arrived..

post-15177-0-76186100-1400716056_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

GFS 18z goes for notable wind convergence across mid-north Wales and N Midlands later tomorrow afternoon. I would imagine that convection could be enhanced in these areas

 

Posted Image

 

The 9pm precipitation frame shows a line of precipitation across those areas:

 

Posted Image

 

Could be a case of the focus shifting late afternoon to areas where CAPE and the convergence overlap

 

Posted Image

 

 

Possibly parts of E Wales, Shrops, Staffs, S Lincs, S Cheshire etc in the firing line later tomorrow afternoon?

Edited by CreweCold
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Sadly, the ingredients are in that area for storms... Was thinking I was going to miss the rain all together being in the gap. But now the gap is filling!

Problem is THEY are always right in that area .just can't get my head around how they have absolutely no problem crossing the north sea yet even the short 26 miles (shortest point)hop across the channel kills them .staggeringly unbelievable
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Still surprised nothing electrical in that? Looks classic thundery rain to me...and identical to the stuff which we saw in the Channel earlier. Which yes gave out sparks? intrigued to see how this one pans out. As for after the main belt, could get very lively for some later.

I'm sat under a plastic corrugated roof, quite deafening for a few minutes, a small river running down the street now. I love it like this, no wind to steer the rain, so I can have the bedroom window open wide to listen to it while I drift off! :D Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Rain really pepping up across Lincolnshire. 

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Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire

Problem is THEY are always right in that area .just can't get my head around how they have absolutely no problem crossing the north sea yet even the short 26 miles (shortest point)hop across the channel kills them .staggeringly unbelievable

In recent years, they have been! Have seen it so many times. Over the past few summers, nearly every MCS that has developed in Northern France, takes a turn to the Right and over The Low countries and out into the North Sea, keeping its electrical activity. Same was seen last night, with Sferics reported as far north as Oslo.

 

There must be a reason, but for now, we don't know sadly!

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