Convective / Storm Discussion - 21st May 2014 onwards

[Hirudine]

Just starting to rain here, not heavily though.

[Greeny]

I'm a complete novice especially when night time storms are concerned but there are a couple of wind convergences or I think there are in the areas of interest during the night. One right over Norfolk and the other cornwall way. Will these make any difference?

Edit: more like Midlands way.

Edited May 21, 2014 by Greenday

[Panayiotis]

Im gathering the feeling that when that band of PPN heads over the Channel then within it will be a convective squall line, and its this which I think will happen to give the thunder and lightning that the Met are seeing..

EDIT: Things seem to be firing up now in the SW and in the band of rain..

Edited May 21, 2014 by Panayiotis

[Buckster]

raining - but thats it atm (Essex)

[shaky]

Look how rapidly these showers develop tomorrow afternoon across central areas on the NMM - explosive!

 

1pm: 3pm: 5pm

Convergence zone setting up, plenty of cape, vorticity off the scale. Could be some severe weather I think

 

They don't move anywhere fast so flash flooding potential, if it develops like that anyway

my word that looks tasty but dangerous for the midlands!!

[Gordon Webb]

my word that looks tasty but dangerous for the midlands!!

 

yep i know and hoping it's not as bad as that

[shaky]

I'm a complete novice especially when night time storms are concerned but there are a couple of wind convergences or I think there are in the areas of interest during the night. One right over Norfolk and the other cornwall way. Will these make any difference?Edit: more like Midlands way.

was just gona say looks like there's a convergence over the midlands!!

[Costa Del Fal]

No lightning left as expected but looks like us here in the far south are going to get a right soaking shortly! A lot of heavy rain embedded thus far. Chance of something thundery here tomorrow maybe.

[Panayiotis]

You can see already that the converging winds are causing the rain to intensify on the coast of the SW, as this moves up, its in the places highlighted in red (where there is converging winds) where I expect the squall line to form... 

[shaky]

You can see already that the converging winds are causing the rain to intensify on the coast of the SW, as this moves up, its in the places highlighted in red (where there is converging winds) where I expect the squall line to form...

you think thunderstorms will spread north along that line?

[Panayiotis]

you think thunderstorms will spread north along that line?

Yeah, its just my shot at things as they stand to me and what information Ive got, obviously its a very dynamic and fluid situation so we'll see in a few hours!

[ancientsolar]

Sferic showing up from the squall line near Exeter 

Edited May 21, 2014 by ancientsolar

[phil nw.]

Just looking at the 18z GFS on extra and tomorrow afternoon seems to show the highest risk of storms across England and Wales.

 

 

A 50% chance quite widely.This after the overnight /morning rain moves away north.

[scotteboi]

Louise Lear: "Good luck trying to sleep where the thunderstorms do develop over the next few hours."

Just seen that forecast on BBC N24, what a load of rubbish....what are they basing it on?? I have the equivalent of a Christmas cracker degree in forecasting and there is going to be no widespread storms this evening.....let's see who's right! EDIT - would love the pros to prove me wrong though 😀 Edited May 21, 2014 by scotteboi

[Mapantz]

It has just started to rain here, quite large drops considering it is light rain on the radar. I might hang about for a couple of hours to see how heavy it becomes.

[Costa Del Fal]

Sferic showing up from the squall line near Exeter 

Where you seen that? Nothing on blitzortung?

[Mark Griffin]

There is not one strike of lightning anywhere in UK or France.  Quite odd

[Muffelchen]

Sferic showing up from the squall line near Exeter 

Been watching out for that for a while with the loud radar echoes from that precipitation band. One wonders whether it will now electrify and give a good light show to the SW. It could be that the detectors on NetW don't show sferics beyond a certain distance: this is true a few tens of miles inland from Calais, however, it does not explain why there have been no sferics on the realtime lightning maps from NW France and the SW approaches.

 

The latter website is now also showing that the storm system out over the N Sea has pepped up a bit in the last 15 minutes or so and is now producing a few more sferics again. If it really gets going I might go outside for a while: from here you can see distant lightning (100 miles or more) out over the N Sea in the cloud tops. It is quite weird but beautiful.

[Costa Del Fal]

There is not one strike of lightning anywhere in UK or France.  Quite odd

The one near Exeter was probably False. Looks pretty certain this is just dynamic rain now.

[Daniel*]

Moderate to Heavy rain drenching the South East corner, concern for Kent the totals must be very high. That PPN crawling towards the South West, has a bite to it. Thunderstorms a possibility.

[Costa Del Fal]

Oooh  hello, on Netweather ATD, 2 new strikes in W Cornwall. Hope its right.

Edited May 21, 2014 by Blizzards

[lassie23]

Sweet FA happening here in London weather wise and in general!

[Costa Del Fal]

Does anyone elses radar here on Netweather keep going blank pretty much at midnight recently? Takes a while to get the radar back sometime after midnight.

[MrSunshine]

Sweet FA happening here in London weather wise and in general!

Lassie! Long time no speak. Not expecting anything to happen here until at least rush hour. Edited May 21, 2014 by MrSunshine

[NUT]

I would have loved to have been back in devon on holiday right now to see that rain lashing against the caravan. Looks absolutely intense down there right now