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Convective / Storm Discussion - 21st May 2014 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

No, LOL  Simon is a pretty good forecaster and level headed too! He detests The Daily Express Btw! His forecast is for thundery rain tonight, not the worst storms for 50 years! Sorry for the confusion, did I balls up my post! :unsure2:

I think it was me reading it wrong!
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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Hi AJ, if you scroll back through the posts you'll see Nick F has done an analysis as too has BrickFielder.

Hi H, just had a look. to be honest, and again just an opinion, I think the risk is overcooked as it stands at the moment. i'll have a look at the 12z suites when they roll out....I think maybe I'm just a bit hungover from the total bust for the last few days from an IMBY perspective, so I hope that my pessimism is proved totally wrong and many folk see explosive atmospheric fireworks  :)

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Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire

Hi H, just had a look. to be honest, and again just an opinion, I think the risk is overcooked as it stands at the moment. i'll have a look at the 12z suites when they roll out....I think maybe I'm just a bit hungover from the total bust for the last few days from an IMBY perspective, so I hope that my pessimism is proved totally wrong and many folk see explosive atmospheric fireworks  :)

TERRIBLE the last few days

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

Met office warnings, updates are out http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

Met office warnings, updates are out http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings

Finally! Well weatherweb, the BBC the met office and even metcheck are all now predicting heavy rain for London and the South East, only question is, will there be any thunder in the mix?

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos

TERRIBLE the last few days

Yes really awful I'm sure Wales have had their fix lol but we must remember thunderstorms are so hard to forecast, which is exciting in a way because they can just appear from nowhere out of anywhere even if not forecast  :D

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos

And here we have another update from the Met Office :  :)

 

Issued at - 21 May 2014, 11:57
Valid from - 22 May 2014, 00:05
Valid to - 22 May 2014, 21:00
 
Areas of heavy and locally thundery rain are expected to move north and west across the southern half of England along with Wales during the early hours of Thursday. A brief period of drier weather  reaching the extreme southeast around midnight Thursday will follow northwestwards, probably reaching much of Wales and southwest England later in the morning.  However, scattered locally heavy showers, with the risk of some slow-moving thundery downpours, are likely to develop quite quickly during Thursday, only slowly dying out in the evening.  
 
The public should be aware of the risk of localised  flooding.
 
This warning has been updated to extend it to all of Wales and the southern half of England. There remains considerable uncertainty in the rainfall details and further updates may be issued.
 
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Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire

All storm risks for up here have now gone.......

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Using the GFS 06z alone I would probably expect the east coast of Norfolk and Suffolk to get some thundery activity overnight, but this is one run of one model. 

Edited by Supacell
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And here we have another update from the Met Office :  :)

 

Issued at - 21 May 2014, 11:57
Valid from - 22 May 2014, 00:05
Valid to - 22 May 2014, 21:00
 
Areas of heavy and locally thundery rain are expected to move north and west across the southern half of England along with Wales during the early hours of Thursday. A brief period of drier weather  reaching the extreme southeast around midnight Thursday will follow northwestwards, probably reaching much of Wales and southwest England later in the morning.  However, scattered locally heavy showers, with the risk of some slow-moving thundery downpours, are likely to develop quite quickly during Thursday, only slowly dying out in the evening.  
 
The public should be aware of the risk of localised  flooding.
 
This warning has been updated to extend it to all of Wales and the southern half of England. There remains considerable uncertainty in the rainfall details and further updates may be issued.
 

 

 

:bomb:  :rofl:  :cc_confused:  :pardon:  :friends:  :sorry:  :nonono:   This is what I feel the emotions will be tonight in the South east 

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

I see the updated rainfall forecast shows a drier split appearing somewhere along the band.....I think I know where that will end up fellow Bristolians.

 

Not that I was expecting more than rain anyway...though there might be a better chance from some showers in the afternoon if they get going.

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

After the last few days I am hoping that tomorrow I am  :bomb: â˜ˆ   :yahoo:  :yahoo:  :D  :whistling:

 

and not  :bomb: â˜ˆ  :cc_confused:  :unknw:  :wallbash:  :nonono: post-2719-0-07031800-1400672795.gif

 

Sorry, I have too much time on my hands I think.

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Posted
  • Location: South East UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/squalls/hoar-frost/mist
  • Location: South East UK

apart from CAPE Latent heat can add extraA energy too convection, as clouds condense heat is released that was used in the initial evaporation of moisture to create the cloud, thats why alot of moisture at low levels is important for storms.

Edited by Sprites
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

I see the updated rainfall forecast shows a drier split appearing somewhere along the band.....I think I know where that will end up fellow Bristolians.

 

Not that I was expecting more than rain anyway...though there might be a better chance from some showers in the afternoon if they get go

Yeah, I think it's were its forecast to pivot & thus causing it to split. Don't expect much at all from this, maybe 5-10mm of rain over a two-three hour period.

 

Hoping we don't get left with cloud cover tomorrow & the sun comes out early to leave a day much like today.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos

Lool let's wait and see. plenty more chances to come . good luck again all  :bomb:  :drunk:

I have tried the reverse psychology but it never did work for me. But I'm always the optimist. :laugh:

Edited by Jane Louise
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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

:spiteful::cray::angry::cc_confused:  Already gone through these emotions today!  It is getting progressively hazy here in London, the breeze is picking up too! 22.2c at the moment! Humidity 47%, pressure falling and wind from the East! Looks like that rain is on its way!

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Some technical thoughts from the Met Office

 

An active complex frontal zone is expected to move northwards into southeast England on Wednesday evening continuing across the southern half of England and Wales on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This brings the threat of some heavy rain for a time with embedded convection within the frontal band. To the rear of the frontal zone scattered thundery showers are likely to develop bringing some further localised downpours during Thursday afternoon.  Considerable local variations in rainfall are likely. However, totals of more than 40 mm are likely in places through the day with a risk of 15 mm falling in less than an hour locally.

 

So it looks like an area of heavy rain with some embedded thundery elements, then perhaps the best chance of a storm comes Thursday afternoon. Decent amounts of CAPE available across the S, humid and some convergence zones could form which could be a trigger if other elements are lacking. Not widespread storms perhaps but I feel any that do form could pack a punch.

 

Possible convergence zones:

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos

Perhaps we shouldn't rely on France for their imports, because once they've had all theirs all they send over to us is that horrible grey blanket of dull cloud. Lol :nonono: but this only happens on a few occasions mind Lol

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

Lovely day out there here, feels warmer although the wind which dropped last night is now starting up again. Sky is getting milky with a few puffs of clouds. Considering, I think we will get some rain, but there's time enough to change that to low fog and drizzle. I'm hoping that i'm going to be so wrong and be more like this :yahoo:  :clapping:  :good:

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

They'll certainly be some large totals accumulated in a short space of time..

post-15177-0-11284000-1400674454_thumb.ppost-15177-0-76372400-1400674463_thumb.p

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