June 2014 CET Forecasts

[Roger J Smith]

Here's the 1981-2010 averages for daily CET and cumulative CET (the average to the given date).

 

Date ___ CET ___ cum CET

 

01 ____ 13.5 ___ 13.5

02 ____ 13.8 ___ 13.7

03 ____ 13.4 ___ 13.6

04 ____ 13.2 ___ 13.5

05 ____ 13.3 ___ 13.4

06 ____ 13.7 ___ 13.5

07 ____ 14.0 ___ 13.6

08 ____ 13.9 ___ 13.6

09 ____ 14.0 ___ 13.6

10 ____ 14.3 ___ 13.7

 

11 ____ 13.6 ___ 13.7

12 ____ 13.9 ___ 13.7

13 ____ 14.0 ___ 13.7

14 ____ 14.4 ___ 13.8

15 ____ 14.2 ___ 13.8

16 ____ 14.8 ___ 13.9

17 ____ 15.0 ___ 13.9

18 ____ 14.8 ___ 14.0

19 ____ 15.2 ___ 14.1

20 ____ 15.1 ___ 14.1

 

21 ____ 14.4 ___ 14.1

22 ____ 14.6 ___ 14.1

23 ____ 14.8 ___ 14.2

24 ____ 14.9 ___ 14.2

25 ____ 15.3 ___ 14.2

26 ____ 15.3 ___ 14.3

27 ____ 15.6 ___ 14.3

28 ____ 15.6 ___ 14.4

29 ____ 16.0 ___ 14.4

30 ____ 15.8 ___ 14.5

 

Note there are three distinct "fallbacks" in the otherwise steady rise in June CET, on and for a few days after 3rd, 11th and 21st.

 

I have run these stats for July and August and found that the warmest day in the 1981-2010 period was 29 July at 17.7 which is almost as warm as last July, and there are more 17s than 16s in the period from 25 July to 6 August and in fact no days reached 17.00 outside that 13-day period except for 20 July.

[Summer Sun]

14.2c to the 4th

 

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

[Dancerwithwings]

Yesterday was 1.7c above the 61 to 90 average

Today is 1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

 0.7c drop

 

Not surprised! it was very cool for this time of the year yesterday here in the Midlands & more so in Wales.

[Knoxgar]

nice heatwave ahead:

 

 

Some models predicting 37°C for my city

 

Edited June 5, 2014 by Knoxgar

[damianslaw]

Yesterday was 1.7c above the 61 to 90 average

Today is 1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

 0.7c drop

 

Not surprised! it was very cool for this time of the year yesterday here in the Midlands & more so in Wales.

 

 

Yes mean maxima yesterday was very supressed, with widespread values between 10 and 12 degrees.

 

Its alarming though how we seem incapable this year of seeing even a week of below average temperatures, the last couple of weeks have been a very fine balance, and we weren't far off recording a sustained period of below average mean temps, alas we've only had the odd day here and there such as yesterday and once again we are staring at an appreciably above average spell of temps - there will be a change in favour to at least near average as some point when who knows... we've been locked into an airstream from between west and south for so long now..with low pressure it seems permanently just off the Irish Seaboard.

[Summer Sun]

14.0c to the 5th

 

0.7c above the 61 to 90 average

[Lettucing Gutted]

Little chance of 2014 being a sub 10C year!

At this rate there's gonna be little chance of a sub 11C year!

[Summer Sun]

13.9c to the 6th

 

0.7c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 14.2c to the 7th

 

0.9c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 14.5c to the 8th

 

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average

[summer blizzard]

According to Global warming on TWO he expects the CET up to 15.0 by the 20th. Love the fact the CET is up on what it was like this time last year.

 

He's basing that on the GFS.

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 14.9c to the 9th

 

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average

[Milhouse]

Warmest first 6 months of the year a possibility?

[reef]

Warmest first 6 months of the year a possibility?

Its pretty unlikely at the moment, we'd require June to finish on 16.4C for that. 15.3C would put us in 2nd place though.

 

The previous highest first 6 months on record was 2007 with a mean of 9.70C.

 

Next month things get interesting though as June and July only need a total 0.6C positive anomaly between them for the warmest first 7 months on record.

[Milhouse]

Its pretty unlikely at the moment, we'd require June to finish on 16.4C for that. 15.3C would put us in 2nd place though.

 

The previous highest first 6 months on record was 2007 with a mean of 9.70C.

 

Next month things get interesting though as June and July only need a total 0.6C positive anomaly between them for the warmest first 7 months on record.

 

Thankyou for confirming that

[Summer Sun]

14.9c to the 10th

 

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

14.8c to the 11th

 

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

14.9c to the 12th

 

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average

[summer blizzard]

Any idea where it will be to the 20th?

[DAVID SNOW]

Any idea where it will be to the 20th?

 

Low 15's as a guess.

[TonyH]

Hopefully high 15's by 30th

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 11.2C while maxima were near 24C, so an increase to 15.1C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 12z GFS op run has the CET at

15.2C to the 14th (16.5)

15.2C to the 15th (14.8]

15.0C to the 16th (13.4)

14.9C to the 17th (13.5)

15.0C to the 18th (15.6)

15.1C to the 19th (16.8]

15.0C to the 20th  (13.4)

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 15.0c to the 13th

 

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

Upto 15.2C to the 14th

 

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average

[DAVID SNOW]

Only half way through June but to me the weather pattern looks 'stuck' for at least 10 days.So no heatwave as winds will be from the northerly quadrant,therefore I recon the cet will end up between 15.0 and 15.5 imho.