Convective / Storm Discussion - 20th May 2014 onwards

[Dami]

After being 72% then 52% now my area is showing only a 37% chance of a storm oh well, at least there was some hail and thunder last week

[NO LONGER POSTING]

somethings goona go bang in the south soon but where.. 

[Panayiotis]

To me its looking like somewhere in this area will see the first strike of the afternoon. Satellite show clouds building high with showers developing nicely...

[paul m]

Wtf. Now 37% chance of a storm so no ruddy chance....

[Nick L]

People are placing far too much faith in the "Will it thunder" percentages. They are just numbers based on raw model output and have no human input. They're great for getting a broad idea of the storm risk, but losing the will to live over a 4% decrease in the percentage is going to drive you up the wall!

[Lauren]

Currently in Sheppey and it looks like it's going to chuck it down.

[Convective]

After being 72% then 52% now my area is showing only a 37% chance of a storm oh well, at least there was some hail and thunder last week

Wtf. Now 37% chance of a storm so no ruddy chance....

People are placing far too much faith in the "Will it thunder" percentages. They are just numbers based on raw model output and have no human input. They're great for getting a broad idea of the storm risk, but losing the will to live over a 4% decrease in the percentage is going to drive you up the wall!

I was only given a 32% thunderstorm risk as of yesterday morning yet I had thunder and lightning from 4pm till 6am this morning

[NO LONGER POSTING]

See what I mean about Ireland... 

[TonyH]

Heavy shower no sferics though its only developed in the past 30 minutes from nowt.

[Harry]

Sky turning darker to my East and South (in London)

 

If this isn't going to turn electrical, it'll be this wave of activity that will start triggering elsewhere once it moves through.

[Mark Griffin]

It's become overcast here again but temps holding steady at 21.5c. 

[Nick L]

Starting to see some showers pop up in southern England now.

[Gonzolio Martinez]

I don't hold high hopes for today, the best potential seems to keep missing me here.

I'm going on a lengthy walk in a bit anyway so I'll take some pics and keep my eyes pointed upwards for any developments.

Edited May 20, 2014 by Gonzolio Martinez

[TEITS]

Starting to see some showers pop up in southern England now.

Yep and from around 4pm into this evening im expecting the storms to break out more widely in the S and spread N into the Midlands/E Anglia.

[Darren Bown]

Muggy here, but the breeze has a slight chill in it. Sat around 21C currently. Skies have filled in to mostly high based stuff.

[slinky1989]

Skies are quite dark here in Wolverhampton, no rain to speak of though and the radar isn't giving me much hope!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Something of interest north of Manchester and Preston now

[legritter]

Well i got my lightning fix last night ,several good forked ones and some torrential rain ,but all fairly short lived .it looks like some more popping up today but now all eyes to late wednesday night through into thursday ,as more of a threat moves up from our friends across the channel ,indeed many parts could see intense rain with thunder embedded ,and some imports of sorts to follow ,not bad considering its only May ,its going to be interesting as forecasters get more info in during tomorrow and of course temperatures tomorrow here and on the continent will play an important factor ,So bring it on Thunder to rattle the windows ,Lightning to read a book by and neighbours all peeping out the curtains ,cheers all .  

[Darren Bown]

It's incredibly hazy here, even with the breeze.

Yep and from around 4pm into this evening im expecting the storms to break out more widely in the S and spread N into the Midlands/E Anglia.

Metoffice agree with you, a line of thunderstorms moving through N Midlands and N England this evening.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Damn sham that mass of cloud moving south in France is not more electrified as it's doing a b line for London

 

EDIT: It's just started spitting out serfics LOL!

Edited May 20, 2014 by Surrey

[Knoxgar]

Temperature up to 29C, dp is nearing 15C and still no clouds! Some small storms in eastern and central germany, but the big hit will happen on thursday! Mannheim could be in the bullseye!

Edited May 20, 2014 by Knoxgar

[Harry]

Damn sham that mass of cloud moving south in France is not more electrified as it's doing a b line for London

 

EDIT: It's just started spitting out serfics LOL!

 

Unless you can see something I can't, those sferics arent bound for us

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Unless you can see something I can't, those sferics arent bound for us

 

 

Look further south!  See what's goona happen is that big mass of cloud is goona explode into a juicy elevated super cell that will slam into the South east Move north and give everybody a good show...

 

What.. I'm allowed to dream.. 

Edited May 20, 2014 by Surrey

[Hirudine]

Will that French storm survive the Channel crossing? If it does that might be our best hope for some thunder today in London I reckon. 

It's certainly been very overcast here since I got up.

[Costa Del Fal]

People are placing far too much faith in the "Will it thunder" percentages. They are just numbers based on raw model output and have no human input. They're great for getting a broad idea of the storm risk, but losing the will to live over a 4% decrease in the percentage is going to drive you up the wall!

Absolutely and the same goes for those getting hooked on Met Office symbols because they show a thunder shower at said location at 17:00 hrs. In these set ups everyone should know its pretty much just a guess!