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  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

    Is there any chance of storms next week in my area. The LI and CAPE charts don't look too convincing. I'm just wondering if Sunday has any potential with a weather front coming in from the W bumping into convective air?

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    From earlier. This is about as good as I got due to it being daytime  

    Another one approaching me.   https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19845-/

    As a 32 Year old, When I see storms heading for me, I'm like a child running between windows , up and downstairs, checking the radars. Grabbing the camera, running again up an downstairs. Jumping up a

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    Wow! Is all I can say!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos

    Is there any chance of storms next week in my area. The LI and CAPE charts don't look too convincing. I'm just wondering if Sunday has any potential with a weather front coming in from the W bumping into convective air?

    It's looking good for most of us William! keep an eye on the charts in the upcoming days  :)  :D

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  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

    It's looking good for most of us William! keep an eye on the charts in the upcoming days  :)  :D

    I hope so! :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

    Is there any chance of storms next week in my area. The LI and CAPE charts don't look too convincing. I'm just wondering if Sunday has any potential with a weather front coming in from the W bumping into convective air?

     

    I wouldn't worry too much about CAPE/LI charts at this stage. They are subject to considerable change between now and early next week, and the CAPE charts shown on the standard netweather suite only show surface based CAPE and not mid level CAPE which is more important if you are wanting those overnight elevated lightning displays moving up from the continent.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    I wouldn't worry too much about CAPE/LI charts at this stage. They are subject to considerable change between now and early next week, and the CAPE charts shown on the standard netweather suite only show surface based CAPE and not mid level CAPE which is more important if you are wanting those overnight elevated lightning displays moving up from the continent.

     

    I'm not entirely sure on the differences between the different kind of CAPES, but MLCAPE is mixed-layer CAPE, not mid-level.

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    I'm not entirely sure on the differences between the different kind of CAPES, but MLCAPE is mixed-layer CAPE, not mid-level.

     

    Very true and MUCAPE is from a level that yields the most unstable profile. A serious question. How does the 500mb relative vorticity fit into the equation, if indeed it does?

    Edited by knocker
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  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    Very true and MUCAPE is from a level that yields the most unstable profile. A serious question. How does the 500mb relative vorticity fit into the equation, if indeed it does?

     

    Vorticity has more to do with giving the storm rotation than prolonging its life or getting a storm going. Sufficient vorticity is vital for the formation of a mesocyclone (typically 10-2s-1). Vorticity is a concept I really struggled with through uni, mostly due to the vector calculus involved. After exams I'll try and get my head around it (pun sort of intended) and do another guide :)

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Vorticity has more to do with giving the storm rotation than prolonging its life or getting a storm going. Sufficient vorticity is vital for the formation of a mesocyclone (typically 10-2s-1). Vorticity is a concept I really struggled with through uni, mostly due to the vector calculus involved. After exams I'll try and get my head around it (pun sort of intended) and do another guide :)

    Do you mean the the vorticity/lifting at 500 and 700mb? I tend to check those during thunderstorm events to see if there's strong PVA or vortmax lobes associated with a slack flow.
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  • Location: The Wash - Norfolk side
  • Weather Preferences: Storms storms and more storms
  • Location: The Wash - Norfolk side

    Wouldnt put much faith in that Scott - the CAP will see it off.  Now, next week is looking far more "interesting".  Rainfall totals next week could also be excessively high.

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    Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

    I'm not entirely sure on the differences between the different kind of CAPES, but MLCAPE is mixed-layer CAPE, not mid-level.

     

    Thanks Nick. As MLCAPE always seems to be talked about in relation to elevated storms and I know SBCAPE is surface based I guess I made an incorrect assumption that it would be Mid level. If it is mixed layer then I assume this relates to the average CAPE across all levels? There is an ICAPE also, I won't even begin to understand that one :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

    Wouldnt put much faith in that Scott - the CAP will see it off.  Now, next week is looking far more "interesting".  Rainfall totals next week could also be excessively high.

    Flooding in certain regions likely to feature during next week

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    Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside

    I believe that at the moment, almost anywhere away from the SW and N Ireland/N Scotland is currently at risk of storms Mon/Tues.

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Friday's storm risk area is the East Midlands today with an excess CAPE of 900 j/kg and an LI of -3. Not looking bad for those areas I must say, considering we are under high pressure!

    not surprising mate!!theres cumulus clouds going up everywhere here in leicester and the midlands is one of the hotttest places at the moment!!temps already climbing up to 21 degreees in a few spots and would not be surprise to see a 25 degrees recorded somewhere in England today!
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  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    The heat is getting some high based convection going around here. Not anything that will bring fireworks but certainly some cumulus bubbling up. Shame there's no instability around here! However, LI and CAPE are favourable for an isolated storm to develop in the East Midlands down towards the Bristol Channel later this afternoon/evening:

     

    post-7600-0-38025600-1400235830_thumb.pn

     

     

    Do you mean the the vorticity/lifting at 500 and 700mb? I tend to check those during thunderstorm events to see if there's strong PVA or vortmax lobes associated with a slack flow.

     

    Unfortunately that's beyond my thunderstorm knowledge I'm afraid! When my exams are over I'm going to re-teach myself vorticity and the rest :)

    Edited by Nick L
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    Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

    I wouldn't worry too much about CAPE/LI charts at this stage. They are subject to considerable change between now and early next week, and the CAPE charts shown on the standard netweather suite only show surface based CAPE and not mid level CAPE which is more important if you are wanting those overnight elevated lightning displays moving up from the continent.

    Ok, maybe next week might see something. Hopefully on Tuesday afternoon, Thursday afternoon or Friday afternoon when I'm at home.

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    Posted
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter

    From what I can tell the 06z seems a bit further west again at least on Monday, perhaps more similar to ECM, but on Netweather the GFS seems to update much slower/more fragmented these days, can't get certain charts (cape/LI) at 75 hours when wetterzentrale is up to t+228.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

    From what I can tell the 06z seems a bit further west again at least on Monday, perhaps more similar to ECM, but on Netweather the GFS seems to update much slower/more fragmented these days, can't get certain charts (cape/LI) at 75 hours when wetterzentrale is up to t+228.

    That's got to be good Sam?

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    Posted
  • Location: Rushden. Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Rushden. Northamptonshire

    Clouds around Northants are becoming rather dark in nature and building from the north, a bit early as I am not really expecting anything today.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

    It looks like I have more chance tomorrow of getting something. The extremes of SB CAPE is amazing.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

    500mb relative vorticity is not easy to explain and comes down to how small parcels of air act under certin shear conditions as far as I can tell. In my view there are some simple ideas that you can take away from the relative vorticity charts. These are that approaching vorticity should act to increase instability and are often associated with fronts or troughs. They also indicate a curvature in the winds which would lead to divergence (ahead) or convergence (behind) of winds at that level. Divergence of winds may cause air beneath to be lifted up to fill in the voids and rising air will tend to help cloud formation depending on air moisture content.For today then models dont quite agree. Low level moisture pooling across the center of the UK should cause dewpoints to rise. This is why a litle surfaced based Cape is forecast.Low level wind convergence could be a spark for shower formation.Looking at forecast skewT's then good daytime temperatures should just about spark showers up to a height where they become more storm like. The trouble is that the overnight soundings showed more marked caps which we are unable to tell whether they still exist.So not convinced about todays storm threat.

     

    Over the weekend steering winds should shift to come from firstly a southerly maritime direction and then from across Spain and France.No real hint of a trigger until Monday and by then any storms could be rather elevated (less rain)

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  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Posted Image

     

    -4 LI right above surrey...  :rofl:  Drizzle ahead!

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    Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

    The plain fact is convective showers are likely to be very isolated given 1030mbar pressure today!

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    Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

    Judging by the Coventry webcam convection has been stunted this morning:

    http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/webcam.htm

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  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

    Radar showing the sun now helping convection with Cu developing widely across the Midlands, Central Wales and England.

    Edited by Panayiotis
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