Convective / Storm Discussion - 14th May 2014 onwards

[toggerob]

Convergence setup across the spine of the pennines going off vis obs, cumulus are looking beefy with ever increasing lift. Optimistic that something will crop up somewhere along a line from from Manchester to Newcastle.

[Convective]

Convergence setup across the spine of the pennines going off vis obs, cumulus are looking beefy with ever increasing lift. Optimistic that something will crop up somewhere along a line from from Manchester to Newcastle.

 

Precipitation north of Manchester now.

 

Eeeek!! Its not even heavy rain but I'm sat here all excited, looking at the radar!

[Harry]

Well, it is clear to me the BBC/MetO are rather unsure what to make of the coming week...going to be an interesting week still I suspect, but with forecasts limited to 24hr rather than 2-3 days in advance

[toggerob]

Nice dark CU with a deep base to it rolling north over the Goyt Valley at the moment, might have to take the camera out later if things move north as I have a good vantage point up on Sponds Moor overlooking the whole Cheshire basin.

[William Grimsley]

Forget the cumulus over France. Plume destabilisation is what you are looking for which will show up over the SW later today but more significantly on Monday. This will be elevated in nature and so the boundary layer is irrelevant (sea or land temperatures). Surface based convection will be later in the week.

Ok, will watch out.

[Convective]

First elevated convection going up east of here now! Can see clearly the precipitation towards Cumbria

 

 

[StormChaseUK]

Elevated are rarely predicted on television, and the best thunderstorms never are.

[Eye to the sky]

The cumulus clouds here are now developing some really dark bases but are moving at a fair pace on the strong breeze.Cant rule out the possibility of a shower before the day ends.

[Mokidugway]

First elevated convection going up east of here now! Can see clearly the precipitation towards Cumbria

 

 

that would be typical home town gets a storm , and I'm stuck in Manchester !!......

[WillinGlossop]

Convection hitting off....23c wind died down this afternoon.... Very convective skies to the south/ west/ north....

[I Cumbria Marra I]

First elevated convection going up east of here now! Can see clearly the precipitation towards Cumbria

 

 

 

Problem is.....its over the sea, the clouds do look quite thundery.

[Bobby]

The sky is dark to my NW with some towering going on, probably not a proper CB however. Altostratus is starting to drift up from the SW now too which is somtehing new. Does feel the atmosphere is becoming more... active.

[A.J]

ok, the hi-res NMM12z suite is out now, and it makes for interesting analysis for parts of the UK overnight tonight.

It progs the current plume of WAA to start to destabalize during the early hours of the morning with elevated convection breaking out over southern england and parts of the west country. Parameters to my eye infer a definite chance of elevated convection developing into elevated thunderstorms giving some cloud to cloud lightning and torrential downpours.

 

A few snapshots from the 12z NMM  suite to illustrate (timed at 02z tomorrow)

 

precip spread showing elevated showers/possible storms

 

several hundred joules of mixed layer CAPE and negative lifted indices indicative of moderate instability throughout the atmosphere enhancing the potential for elevated storms to break out

 

 

moderatley steep lapse rates between the 850hpa and 500hpa boundaries, this difference in temperature in the mid levels will have an enhancing effect on convection, in essence the gradient acts as forcing mechanism

 

 

 

Higher PWAT (precipitable water) values in this area of interest indictive that there is plenty of moisture available all the way up to the 300hpa boundary

 

 

 

Theta e charts represent the amount of heat in any given air parcel, in this instance the chart shows a warm plume of air advecting into the area of interest, it's this WAA which will destabalize

 

This chart is also of interest as we can see from the previous charts that we have warm air advection, this particular chart goes hand in hand as it represents the Relative Humidity (expressed as a percentage) at the 500hpa boundary (mid-level atmosphere)....The high figures show that at this level the atmosphere is very moist, this moisture is the fuel for the elevated convection to develop showers/storms

 

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

The potential starts from here. Let's have it !!!

P.S some absolute wicked looking charts now! Can't believe we're still seeing upgrades lol

[shaky]

The potential starts from here. Let's have it !!! P.S some absolute wicked looking charts now! Can't believe we're still seeing upgrades lol

for real?!I aint seen the charts today but are they still the same mate and humid looking?

[Petorious]

Been crystal clear all day and very warm. Suddenly in the last hour its all still and the cloud is bubbling up, Mid level cloud with very dark base and not moving any where. Starting to feel something might happen tonight.

[Nick L]

First sferic of this potential thundery spell, from that line of heavy showers oop north.

[Petorious]

To add: A lightning strike was recorded in the midlands area, according to strike display (not sure how good SD Info is any more)

[Nick L]

Countryfile forecast basically started by saying "we haven't got a clue". Who can blame them?

[Petorious]

Countryfile forecast basically started by saying "we haven't got a clue". Who can blame them?

Tonight and the next couple of days could be a real good time for decent storms not seen for a long time and with all this uncertainty even from the likes of the MET and BBC we could be really surprised. Could hit anywhere at any time I guess.

[Supacell]

Thunderstorms now in NE England.

 

AJ they are interesting charts as it looks like the western edge of the plume is further east and thus the destabilisation occurs over areas further east. Maybe a chance for the western Midlands tonight also then.

[Hathers]

This really is going to be a now casting event. Country file forecast played their cards close to their chest regarding areas where Thunderstorms could develop. Our hope is that when storms do develop and become organised we can track them a lot easier. Should be a good week.

[ChezWeather]

Loving the atmosphere in this thread at the moment!

Just hope we can all get some storms Monday and Tuesday! 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

for real?!I aint seen the charts today but are they still the same mate and humid looking?

Yes very! GFS showing a series of convective events moving up from the South through the Midlands and East Anglia for Tuesday and Wednesday especially. Both at night too. In the meantime, the first sferics being detected west of Newcastle and up into the Scottish Borders Edited May 18, 2014 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[carl1980]

There's a thundery look to my south and east now