Convective / Storm Discussion - 14th May 2014 onwards

[William Grimsley]

After looking at the charts last night, we have a lot of potential in the evening's this week, here. Fingers crossed.

[NL]

ESTOFEX going with possible storms initiating around sunset and overnight here in the NE and SE Scotland.

 

 

 

EZ and GFS both agree in initiation over NE-UK and SE-Scotland around sunset and during the night as upper divergence of a 300 hPa's entrance region crosses the area. A cluster of storms could form, which moves to the northeast. Despite augmented shear, marginal CAPE lowers any severe risk....although a marginal hail risk can't be excluded.

 

[William Grimsley]

Not sure where these showers are supposed to come about from France later this evening. Maybe convection?

[shaky]

Is the risk of thunderstorms still there for wales and northwest england today?

[Nick F]

Don't be fooled by the SBCAPE charts today showing bright colours over central and eastern England, surface based CAPE will be mostly capped - though we may see some isolated sharp showers pop up over higher ground of NE England/SE Scotland this evening. 

 

My attention for later today and into tomorrow is drawn by the potential destabilisation of the relatively warm and moist plume advecting north at 850mb through differential thermal advection, as colder air between 500mb and 300mb advances slowly eastward in association with the trough out west.

 

This destabilisation likely to occur on the western edge of the 850mb 'plume' across Wales and West Country, N England and SE Scotland overnight ahead of the cold front running up the Irish Sea. Not much forcing is evident on GFS velocity charts for tonight, but we could see some isolated elevated storms rumble north across SW England and Wales, perhaps a few isolated elevated storms forming across N England and SE Scotland too overnight, as the edge of the 850mb plume destabilises here too.

 

Then through Monday, perhaps some early isolated storms rumbling north across western areas to start, then we may see further isolated storms re-develop again across SW England, Wales, N England and S Scotland, bolstered, perhaps by more in the way of forcing spreading up from the south. Not clear whether storms will develop from the surface too, because the southerly jet across Wern UK will bring deep layer vertical shear of 40-50knts - which will enhance storm intensity and organisation, though the plentiful SBCAPE shown by GFS across central and eastern England will be mostly capped.

 

Tuesday looking like a more widespread risk of storms developing and moving north across England, Wales and S Scotland, as we see colder air at 500-300mb moving in from the SW.

 

[William Grimsley]

Don't be fooled by the SBCAPE charts today showing bright colours over central and eastern England, surface based CAPE will be mostly capped - though we may see some isolated sharp showers pop up over higher ground of NE England/SE Scotland this evening. 

 

My attention for later today and into tomorrow is drawn by the potential destabilisation of the relatively warm and moist plume advecting north at 850mb through differential thermal advection, as colder air between 500mb and 300mb advances slowly eastward in association with the trough out west.

 

This destabilisation likely to occur on the western edge of the 850mb 'plume' across Wales and West Country, N England and SE Scotland overnight ahead of the cold front running up the Irish Sea. Not much forcing is evident on GFS velocity charts for tonight, but we could see some isolated elevated storms rumble north across SW England and Wales, perhaps a few isolated elevated storms forming across N England and SE Scotland too overnight, as the edge of the 850mb plume destabilises here too.

 

Then through Monday, perhaps some early isolated storms rumbling north across western areas to start, then we may see further isolated storms re-develop again across SW England, Wales, N England and S Scotland, bolstered, perhaps by more in the way of forcing spreading up from the south. Not clear whether storms will develop from the surface too, because the southerly jet across Wern UK will bring deep layer vertical shear of 40-50knts - which will enhance storm intensity and organisation, though the plentiful SBCAPE shown by GFS across central and eastern England will be mostly capped.

 

Tuesday looking like a more widespread risk of storms developing and moving north across England, Wales and S Scotland, as we see colder air at 500-300mb moving in from the SW.

Sounds good. Is the storm risk for here more likely in the evening?

[Cloud 10]

GFS quite bullish with the storm risk across parts of Northern England later today,but also some support from the UKMO.

 

 

Hoping this thread is going to be busy this week.  

[Darren Bown]

I definitely think that Tuesday, maybe Monday evening, are the days to look for. I haven't seen UKASF issue a warning in ages, and netw are still to issue anything higher than a general thunderstorm warning, so maybe Tuesday will see that change

Interesting!

[Supacell]

I definitely think that Tuesday, maybe Monday evening, are the days to look for. I haven't seen UKASF issue a warning in ages, and netw are still to issue anything higher than a general thunderstorm warning, so maybe Tuesday will see that change :)Interesting!

 

I am not sure if UKASF is still going, as you say they haven't issued anything in ages.

[Darren Bown]

I am not sure if UKASF is still going, as you say they haven't issued anything in ages.

I think you're right, nothing since July, and I remember those storms we has in Manchester on 9th November that caused warnings to go up.

[vladthemert]

GFS quite bullish with the storm risk across parts of Northern England later today,but also some support from the UKMO.

 

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifukstormrisk.pnghttp:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifU18-594UK.gifhttp:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifukpcp18blend.png

 

Hoping this thread is going to be busy this week.  

 

suprised we on hit list thought scotland and north would be target today.  The huge blob on the right dont trust totally overcast here.  I am learning by reading what people say about triggers etc.

[Mapantz]

Just a couple of precipitation charts, as a rough guide of where things might begin during the early hours, but really, I'll just stick to the radar from midnight.

WRF, NMM, GFS, Euro 4

An area of strong PVA in the south west could help with any developments, this moves north west, up through Wales, so I'd say areas in the south west (west of the IoW) might see something during the very early hours, then the risk runs in to Wales and north west England by Monday morning, certainly hints that it Will be more widespread tomorrow.

Dew points are progged to be highest in the channel & south coast, although nothing spectacular.

Sferics could appear if anything develops the channel first, whether they'll continue if they move inland, is another question..

It all begins today, with a risk further north, the risk begins in the south tonight, and many opportunities for many through the week, so all in all, a fun period of weather watching coming up!

I meant it begins today

Edited May 18, 2014 by Mapantz

[Chris.R]

18.9° already, and there is a strong land breeze, so that should inhibit sea-breeze development later. Pressure is 1008 mB and falling. Surely the cap Can't be that strong with that sort of pressure, do we really know that there is a substantial cap for later?

[Raidan]

Hoping something does happen over the next few days although I need things to happen in the evening hours as I'm stuck in work during the day and will miss anything if it happens.May get a few hours kip later just in case something gets going in the early hours.

[Nick L]

Here are the Skew-T diagrams for Nottingham through the afternoon, there's definitely a cap in place, but somewhat weakening through the afternoon:

 

 

 

[Candice]

I think you're right, nothing since July, and I remember those storms we has in Manchester on 9th November that caused warnings to go up.

UKASF are having issues with the polygon overlays on google maps and Dan is also currently away chasing in the States. However, we (SkyWarnUK ) may well put out a very generalised watch later today for Monday/Tuesday.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

South East need them imports for the party to get started

[vladthemert]

cloud breaking here sun now  but still alot clouds to deny development

[SnowJoke]

Lovely sunny day here in MK, the odd fair weather cumulus springing up now and then, temperature is hovering around 20'c in the shade at 12:30 so a few more degrees to go by mid afternoon, might hit that 25'c today. More beer and BBQ food needed 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Latest BBC forecast I just saw was very sketchy RE tomorrow. No forecast map just 4 cities with the expected weather in boxes. Could potentially be a bit of a headache for forecasters as if that cap breaks, tomorrow could be very lively in a few places.

[Muffelchen]

21.3°C here now and there has been a lot more cloud that yesterday although it is all fair weather cumulus and is being driven NE by a stiffening SW breeze.

 

Not convinced about storms later here as it feels fresher with the wind today. We shall see.....

[Carl46Wrexham]

21.3°C here now and there has been a lot more cloud that yesterday although it is all fair weather cumulus and is being driven NE by a stiffening SW breeze. Not convinced about storms later here as it feels fresher with the wind today. We shall see.....

Definitely a more noticeable wind today...almost qualifies as a stiff breeze.

[StormChaseUK]

12:18 BBC update is very good IMO. Classic old school May of 90's looks promising.

[lassie23]

Metcheck aren't forecasting any storms for my area, so I should get some later in the week!

[Sprites]

Definitely a more noticeable wind today...almost qualifies as a stiff breeze.

Beer and beans