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  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos

    Wow!! look at the potential for this weekend and next week  :drunk:  :bomb: I really hope this comes off for us all. Please please let there be no downgrades lol.

    Anyway, please carry on here as you were. :D

    Edited by Jane Louise
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    From earlier. This is about as good as I got due to it being daytime  

    Another one approaching me.   https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19845-/

    As a 32 Year old, When I see storms heading for me, I'm like a child running between windows , up and downstairs, checking the radars. Grabbing the camera, running again up an downstairs. Jumping up a

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Posted Image

     

    As I said in the previous thread please don't take the charts at gospal... But my god  :bomb:  :rofl:

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    Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

    Posted Image

     

    As I said in the previous thread please don't take the charts at gospal... But my god  :bomb:  :rofl:

     

    Yes it may be worth booking a trip to Belgium for this one :D

     

    All joking aside, WRF are now onboard for Friday/Saturday/Sunday and they tend not to overdo to the extent GFS does. The WRF charts I have do not go any further than Sunday but some tastiness even before next week looks possible.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    It's looking like we may have better potential for the start of next week than the guys out in the US :D

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Not even a sniff of potential here at this range, but they'll get watered down and mixed about quite a lot as we progress towards it. The GFS is always generous with such ingredients, I just can't take it seriously. :laugh:

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    Not even a sniff of potential here at this range, but they'll get watered down and mixed about quite a lot as we progress towards it. The GFS is always generous with such ingredients, I just can't take it seriously. :laugh:

    True indeed..... Ya never see an upgrade do ya... But not knocking them charts, they make my eyes water :shok:

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  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    There's plenty of cross-model support for something to happen at that range, albeit, slight variations. It's also been a common setup since October last year, one that I particularly like, mark my words, it will occur many more times throughout the year! Fingers crossed for next week. :)

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    So, for storm lovers, there are exciting charts and an exciting times watching how the models pan these parameters out over the next few days

    Great for storm lovers away from east facing coasts. Think I might have to travel/chase if this materializes as it stands presently. They'll be many twists and turns before next week and for those in the west dont be surprised to see a shift further east hopefully not as far into Belgium..!!

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Great for storm lovers away from east facing coasts. Think I might have to travel/chase if this materializes as it stands presently. They'll be many twists and turns before next week and for those in the west dont be surprised to see a shift further east hopefully not as far into Belgium..!!

    Thing about this though, is that the steering winds look to have more of a southeasterly component, so a good chance of some possible MCS's drifting up the East Coast :D
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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    Regarding our fellow NW Storm chasers, i'm sure we are all in the appreciation society when looking at these mouth watering US Cape charts for next week.

    Looking at the Kansas area, it brings our tiddlers into perspective doesn't it :laugh:

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Dancerwithwings
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    Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL

    I am still in the NSC and the charts that have been show as usual hardly any cape over my location

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Regarding our fellow NW Storm chasers, i'm sure we are all in the appreciation society when looking at these mouth watering US Cape charts for next week.

    Looking at the Kansas area, it brings our tidders into perspective doesn't it :laugh:

     

    Posted Image

     

    :vava:  :shok:  -10 LI of the scale cape...  :help:

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    Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL

    I am still in the NSC and the charts that have been show as usual hardly any cape over my location

     

    Don't take the surface based CAPE charts at face value. As mentioned earlier today, hopefully there will be some juicy MLCAPE charts for elevated storm development. Thats what I'm relying on for a storm here, not surface based energy! :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
    Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL

    Thing about this though, is that the steering winds look to have more of a southeasterly component, so a good chance of some possible MCS's drifting up the East Coast :D

     

    I wouldn't even mention MCS imports, the last couple of years have seen residual cloud and general clagg from European MCS's completely mess up storm development over the UK even though the charts showed great potential.  :nonono:

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    Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

    What...

     

    http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2014051417_201405141306_-_mesoscalediscussion.xml

     

    Never seen this on Estofex!

     

    Mesoscale Discussion
    Valid: Wed 14 May 2014 13:00 to Wed 14 May 2014 17:00 UTC
    Issued: Wed 14 May 2014 13:06
    Forecaster: PISTOTNIK

    According to latest surface observations, strength and position of the deepening surface low centered over Northwestern Bulgaria seem to follow the forecast models. An increasing number of storms has initiated along the eastward shifting cold front, roughly aligned to the Western edge of the highlighted area. Ahead of it, scattered insolation and strong warm air advection have resulted in rising temperatures and dewpoints (e.g. Plovdiv with 21/17°C and Gorna Orechovista with 22/18°C at 12 UTC) with Easterly surface winds.
    Storms are organizing very well while they move northeast into the strongly sheared and helical wind profiles of the warm air advection regime. A bow echo is currently moving across the oblasts of Pleven and Lovech. Severe wind gusts and localized hail can be expected with its passage. As soon as the bow echo crosses the pronounced warm front along the Romanian border, it will encounter strong Northeasterly surface winds (7-10 m/s) and much lower surface temperatures (13-15°C). Convection will quickly become elevated and weaken, but will still pose a threat of heavy precipitation over Southern Romania.
    Further South, some storms with radar reflectivities up to 60 dBZ have kept a more discrete appearance over the Southwestern quadrant of Bulgaria and as far South as the Thessaloniki hinterland in Greece. An organization into supercells with a threat of large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts can be expected, possibly followed by a clustering into an MCS later on. Especially in a corridor between the Balkan mountains to the South and the Danube river to the North, strongly backed surface winds ahead of the surface low may even promote a few tornadoes.

     

     

    Spot on too..

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Lynxus
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    Posted
  • Location: Medway - 125m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: Medway - 125m ASL

    I wrote in the storm experience thread of the time we experienced a near supercell or even a mild one in the Bulgarian mountains back in the 90's, quite spectacular and scary at the same time it was.

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    May I ask what the "lifting index" determines?

    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80249-what-is-capeli/

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    Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)

    Two or three great little storms today as we had a day off and visited Regensberg - the pictures were late afternoon heavy showers, but we had lightning like yesterday later on as we were heading back to Nuremberg on the train and when we were in the restaurant this evening.

    post-21857-0-50310500-1400105730_thumb.j

    post-21857-0-61225000-1400105765_thumb.j

    Edited by Spikecollie
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    Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

    Next week still looking interesting from a convective standpoint although the high CAPE values have been relaxed a little on the overnight GFS runs. 

     

    Before that we have Friday and Saturday which are now close enough for us to be able to look at other parameters such as wind shear, helicity etc and from this I can see that the chance of any organised thundery activity looks minimal with little or no wind shear. What we do have is some fairly high CAPE values being shown for both afternoons and evenings and GFS wants to break out some precipitation in association with this. However, with high pressure sat over the area being shown I would imagine that a strong cap would exist and we would need temperatures to get high enough for anything to happen. If temperatures are suppressed in any way then nothing will happen.

     

    If temperatures can rise high enough then we would need a trigger, this would appear to be a convergence zone. Currently (using the GFS) this is shown in a line from Hull to the Isle of Wight on Friday and approximately Scarborough to Brighton on Saturday. This zone is subject to change of course and WRF has it further west. However, storms that do develop would likely collapse on themselves quite quickly but whilst they are fired up could briefly produce local torrential rain and some decent lightning due to what will be a loaded gun scenario. Further storms could then fire up and collapse along this zone during the evening hours.

     

    Note that I am not a forecaster and base this simply on experience due to an avid interest in storms for many years, therefore I could quite easily have missed something or interpreted things wrongly. If I have, and a more experienced person can see this then please feel free to pull me up on it. It's the only way I will learn :)

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