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Convective / Storm Discussion - 14th May 2014 onwards

Jane Louise
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Boro Snow Seasoned

Boro Snow

Posted
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Storms, Snow Thunder, Supercells, all weather extremes
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
Posted

Is it 100% anaprop though

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Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted

Is it 100% anaprop though

 

Over the Channel, yes.

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

To be fair I dont see anything developing tonight!!some models show thunderstorms at around 2 or 3 but I doubt it very much!!am sure you would see some development by now but there is nothing!!oh well all the more for a nice hot sticky day tomorrow!!

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Greeny Aficionado

Greeny

Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
Posted

Lol, I love this.

Any chance of a storm on Tuesday?

Yeah.. Every @$&&$@ where!

(Subject to change of course)

Haha!

post-7331-0-19424000-1400450068_thumb.pn

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Ross Andrew Hemphill Community Regular

Ross Andrew Hemphill

Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
Posted

Fair share of sferics off Eastern Scotland. Good signs for tomorrow and beyond!! :yahoo:  :clapping:

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Raidan Enthusiast

Raidan

Posted
  • Location: BRISTOL
  • Location: BRISTOL
Posted

Checking in for the last time today doesn't look like anything going to happen tonight if it did was going to stay up and hit the redbulls in the morning.maybe tomorrow something might happen can only hope.

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Chris Cooper Newbie

Chris Cooper

Posted
  • Location: Southampton, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm, Snow, Wind, Any Extremes :)
  • Location: Southampton, Hampshire
Posted

I hope it does it my last day of holiday, back work on Tuesday :(  Booked the wrong week off!

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Greeny Aficionado

Greeny

Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
Posted

I was interested in the 12z run somewhat with -1 li and 400kj cape but just received the 18z and was surprised to see it has upgraded for norfolk for tomorrow.

Gonna view some more charts but will have to wsit and see for tomorrow.

post-7331-0-38034900-1400451900_thumb.pn

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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted (edited)

That is some chart mind for Tuesday! :Dpost-18097-0-18878900-1400452232_thumb.p

 

If I must say the charts for next week look epic! ;)

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Darren Bown Community Regular

Darren Bown

Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
Posted

BBC really not getting excited over the possibilities, no mention of storms, and only of rain for Tuesday.

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lassie23 Maestro

lassie23

Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
Posted

BBC really not getting excited over the possibilities, no mention of storms, and only of rain for Tuesday.

Thunder storms are becoming the new snow! Plenty of promise, then it all goes pear shaped and we are left with nothing! :(

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Darren Bown Community Regular

Darren Bown

Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
Posted

That is some chart mind for Tuesday! :DPosted Imageukcapeli.png

 

If I must say the charts for next week look epic! ;)

Are other factors such as shear, theta etc showing as good? Cape and LI are only showing the potential energy, but not the triggers to tap into that energy.
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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted (edited)

I think if the GFS overview forecasts on the thunderstorms up in the northeast this evening are anything to go by, many places should see some spectacular thunderstorms. I somewhat feel UKMO are strongly underestimating the potential with the next few days.

Edited by Convective
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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted

Are other factors such as shear, theta etc showing as good? Cape and LI are only showing the potential energy, but not the triggers to tap into that energy.

We indeed have the front as the trigger. Definitely the further west you go the better at the moment as areas's further east are still fairly strongly capped due to the high pressure, by the time the front moves further eastwards there is plenty of moisture around by then and little cap. Not too sure on shear quiet yet. No expert by any means just my thoughts.

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted (edited)

Are other factors such as shear, theta etc showing as good? Cape and LI are only showing the potential energy, but not the triggers to tap into that energy.

 

For Monday the shear is good in the west and the theta plume is across most of us but apparently it is the western side that is likely to destabilise. This would indicate the best risk is for western parts (SW, Wales and NW). 

 

For Tuesday charts are looking very good at the moment with widespread CAPE and shear also much more widespread along with Low Pressure overhead and the plume still in place. Cold front moving in from the west into that plume and a trough showing to form ahead of the cold front.

 

I believe the trigger is the destabilisation of the plume due to the approaching cold front (not an expert analysis just what I have read).

Edited by Supacell
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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted

For Monday the shear is good in the west and the theta plume is across most of us but apparently it is the western side that is likely to destabilise. This would indicate the best risk is for western parts (SW, Wales and NW). 

 

For Tuesday charts are looking very good at the moment with widespread CAPE and shear also much more widespread along with Low Pressure overhead and the plume still in place. Cold front moving in from the west into that plume and a trough showing to form ahead of the cold front.

 

I believe the trigger is the destabilisation of the plume due to the approaching cold front (not an expert analysis just what I have read).

What charts do you view to check the amount of shear forecast?

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Evening thunder Experienced

Evening thunder

Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon
Posted

BBC really not getting excited over the possibilities, no mention of storms, and only of rain for Tuesday.

 

I've seen a few mention 'isolated thunderstorms' for tomorrow on for S Scotland/Pennines/N Wales regions, one said 'intense thunderstorms' too, then one that actually went to Tuesday said 'a much higher risk of seeing some thundery showers on Tuesday'. 

 

It is probably inconsistent between forecasts and forecasters,but I've never really known the BBC to give a definite with storms really especially 2 days out, I don't think then mentioned thunder for the NE this evening, and think I remember on June 28th 2012 when some severe storms/supercells with larger than golf ball hail broke out forecasts I saw just said 'thundery showers' or 'thundery downpours' lol

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

What charts do you view to check the amount of shear forecast?

 

I use Lightning Wizard. Unfortunately it only shows GFS charts but it's a great site for seeing more than just CAPE/LI :)

 

http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/

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Vince Coombes Newbie

Vince Coombes

Posted
Posted (edited)

Thunder storms are becoming the new snow! Plenty of promise, then it all goes pear shaped and we are left with nothing! :(

Thunder storms are becoming the new snow! Plenty of promise, then it all goes pear shaped and we are left with nothing! :(

that's my thinking aswell either that or they are all up north or in northern ireland.AylesburyBucks Edited by Vince Coombes
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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted

I use Lightning Wizard. Unfortunately it only shows GFS charts but it's a great site for seeing more than just CAPE/LI :)

 

http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/

Cheers :)

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted (edited)

Courtesy of severe-weather.eu

A SLGT risk has been issued for surrounding areas of MDT risk and for Benelux, UK and NW Iberia with threat for large hail, severe winds and heavy rain.

post-15177-0-95168900-1400454651_thumb.p

Edited by Mapantz
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lassie23 Maestro

lassie23

Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
Posted

that's my thinking aswell either that or they are all up north or in northern ireland.AylesburyBucks

Yes the south hasn't done as well as the areas you've mentioned, recently!

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Stormeh Accomplished

Stormeh

Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
Posted

Florida?... No it's Peterhead, Scotland. What a great pic!

post-13901-0-33146100-1400455120_thumb.j

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