Convective / Storm Discussion - 14th May 2014 onwards

[Greeny]

Currently in Lowestoft enjoying the sunshine. Heading back to Norwich in a minute. Convection had been seen. A turkey tower or 2.

[William Grimsley]

A definite upgrade by GFS tomorrow, widespread LI's of -3 and -4!

0z: http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gif0z.png 6z:http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifukcapeli6z.png

For Monday the same can be said!

0z: http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifmon 0z.png 6z: http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifmon 6z.png

Damn sea breezes stop anything happening here.

[Bobby]

12z NMM is looking interesting

 

Things start stirring on Monday night with heavy pulses of rain moving up across the SW

 

 

Things really kick off during Monday as CAPE builds with thunderstorms possibly breaking out widely with further pulses continuing through the night

 

 

 

Even more CAPE builds on Tuesday more heavy and possible thundery rain

 

 

 

[BrickFielder]

Think I will be watching for vorticity lobes spinning round the low just off Spain. Some suggestion of approaching vorticity in the early hours of Monday.

 

WInd's will steer storms from France and Spain towards the UK, so there will always be the chance of just getting the cloudy remnants of their storms.

 

Low level winds will begin to blow from a south of France direction. These types of wind can be a little low on moisture some times.

 

Perhaps some chance for mammatus cloud photography , or even a short lived tornado in any lead storm. Later elevated storms can produce some good lightning. There is still a chance of course that nothing will occur storm wise.

[WillinGlossop]

Looks good stormwise monday through thursday for up here.....hoping sunday takes a turn for the better though.... Bbq and 20 friends coming over....

[poseidon]

WRF-NMM showing the first high[ish] theta-e plume coming through Monday night, starting at ~19:00, and continuing into Tues morning....

 

Edited May 17, 2014 by poseidon

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

WRF-NMM showing the first high[ish] theta-e plume coming through Monday night, starting at ~19:00, and continuing into Tues morning....

 

Elevated storms a great possibility hopefully!

[poseidon]

East_England_Stormchaser91, on 17 May 2014 - 20:36, said:

Elevated storms a great possibility hopefully!

Hopefully. Wouldn't lay a bet on it though! Here's the Net Weather storm forecast as well for 21:00

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I want this to make me as happy as seeing Arsenal winning the FA cup !

[Darren Bown]

Next 24 hours should see things firm up. BBC are being very sketchy with forecasting past tomorrow, you can tell that they are not sure what will happen. I heard a forecast a few hours ago that ended with 'next week will see things change quite dramatically'.

[NUT]

Hopefully. Wouldn't lay a bet on it though! Here's the Net Weather storm forecast as well for 21:00

 

 

I slightly east of the line in the west of scotland we could well just miss out on this but it will be close...................

[Convective]

Next 24 hours should see things firm up. BBC are being very sketchy with forecasting past tomorrow, you can tell that they are not sure what will happen. I heard a forecast a few hours ago that ended with 'next week will see things change quite dramatically'.

 

Yeah, I've definitely noticed this too. Weatherview that was on at 1:45 this morning didn't go past Monday morning!

 

Just had a look at their national forecast on the website, this too going no further than Monday. Great deal of uncertainty from them, without a doubt!

[Darren Bown]

Yeah, I've definitely noticed this too. Weatherview that was on at 1:45 this morning didn't go past Monday morning!

 

Just had a look at their national forecast on the website, this too going no further than Monday. Great deal of uncertainty from them, without a doubt!

 

In a way, this is a good thing, as the forecasting of potential thundery periods is difficult, especially if a lot of the ingredients are showing, as this situation seems to be doing.

[paul m]

I want this to make me as happy as seeing Arsenal winning the FA cup !

Ha hope it misses you or strikes the cup n it melts

[SnowJoke]

Few small cumulus clouds developed this afternoon as the temperature hit 24'c in the shade. Only just come in from being in the garden all day, sat in the sun drinking a few beers and had an epic BBQ this evening, feel so bloated now though after eating burgers, hot dogs,spare ribs etc 

[Candice]

On the face of it this shows all the ingredients in place for an"interesting" afternoon. However, the frontal cloud may prove rather stubborn, resulting in zilch stormwise

Edited May 17, 2014 by Candice

[Evening thunder]

Just watched the BBC forecast on news 24 which went up to 16:00 on Monday with the detailed map, but that showed no sign of any surface based storms/showers anywhere apart from a few showers over the Pennines/ and briefly NW England at 2/3pm, with some possibly thundery presumably elevated stuff in far west Wales/SW England.

 

 

Seems a little odd to me with the GFS consistently showing charts like this with precip shown breaking out, along with low pressure coming in and slight convergence, but then I guess they have better models/forecasting knowledge.

 

 

Unless things kick off later in the afternoon/evening due to a slight cap or something, and the forecast didn't go that far..(GFS does show cape near 1000j/kg is a bit more widespread at 18:00).

[legritter]

It looks to me that next weeks weather could be headline stuff but as far as present forecasts are concerned the professionals will wait till nearer the time before committing themselves as regards thundery spells and any storms .perhaps tomorrow will see a firming up on next weeks potential from the bbc as they take the Met office guidance and even more so come Monday .its a case of keeping an eye on the Fax charts ,but im fairly confident that given some amount of day time warming we could be on a lucky streak for some ,what a brilliant day ,is this our summer ,or is this just a taster  cheers and lets get some night time rattlers and lightning to read a paper by at night .  

[Greeny]

I hope that if storms are likely to be stronger than your average British storm then some warnings are put out in good time.

[Harry]

Whenever thunder is forecast long advance it often ends in disappointment - in my experience lastminute.com forecasts are much better :-)

[Darren Bown]

Just watched the BBC forecast on news 24 which went up to 16:00 on Monday with the detailed map, but that showed no sign of any surface based storms/showers anywhere apart from a few showers over the Pennines/ and briefly NW England at 2/3pm, with some possibly thundery presumably elevated stuff in far west Wales/SW England.

 

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifBBC forecast.jpg

 

Seems a little odd to me with the GFS consistently showing charts like this with precip shown breaking out, along with low pressure coming in and slight convergence, but then I guess they have better models/forecasting knowledge.

 

 

Unless things kick off later in the afternoon/evening due to a slight cap or something, and the forecast didn't go that far..(GFS does show cape near 1000j/kg is a bit more widespread at 18:00).

 

CAPE and LI's are great across the UK, the problem is that the pressure and caps are probably too high away from the SW and Wales, and that's why the rain/storms are so far out west for Monday. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I know it's a good 3 days out and will probably alter somewhat, but GFS is keen to develop what looks like a possible MCS feature Wednesday afternoon over France and push it North.

Some mind boggling CAPE values up to 2000j/kg and LI values of -8 over the area it is progged to form over.

Edited May 17, 2014 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[SnowJoke]

I feel people are reading to much into the -Li and surface based CAPE charts as regards to storms. With the advection of warm moist air [Theta Plume] what needs to be watched is the MLCAPE values as any storms that form overnight will be high based, or start of as surface based over the continent during daylight hours forming MCS's and move north overnight becoming elevated and being sustained by the theta energy. Im not ruling out surface based home grown storms, but these will all likely be very close to the weather front stalling over the west, and then they will be dependant on any cloud cover clearing allowing insolation during daylight hours.

[Convective]

BBC detailed graphics for Monday were included on their latest national forecast and they sure look juicy. Chunks of green and yellow precipitation moving northwards, along with multiple mentioning of the word 'thunder'!

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Was this weatherview or their online forecast?