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Convective / Storm Discussion - 14th May 2014 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

That's got me interested, and Sunday night, so not far off

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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

Glad to see any main storm potential is in the evening so I can do what I love: draw back the blinds, park a chair in front of the patio doors and watch it roll in over the countryside.

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

This actually reminds me a bit of 9th May 2008 - not sure if some of you remember but there was a stalling cold front waving/stalling across parts of western england that evening and it gave me about a 3 hour light show as it was bumping against the warm, unstable air coming up from the SE.

 

I personally don't expect that next week, as the low pressure system and front is modelled to be a bit "fluid" in movement, whereas back then it was held back by a Scandy block and temperatures were a tad higher.

 

However, certainly plenty to keep an eye on and hopefully it won't be quashed by cloud amounts...that is my main concern at the moment....although if it moves up from the continent during the evening this may not be such an issue.

Edited by Chris K
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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL

Pretty sure no storms are forecast for MK today, but it's jusy hit 20'c outside and some of the fluffy cumulus that were floating about are growing very large with low very dark bases. It feels very humid and looks thundery outside at the minute.  :cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Even more wow. 6 Z is an upgrade again!!

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

I've got an exam Monday afternoon, might get a little distracted!!

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Posted
  • Location: Bedford Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Fire tornado
  • Location: Bedford Bedfordshire

Pretty sure no storms are forecast for MK today, but it's jusy hit 20'c outside and some of the fluffy cumulus that were floating about are growing very large with low very dark bases. It feels very humid and looks thundery outside at the minute.  :cc_confused:

I completely agree, i have seen this sky before and it looks troubled. Considering the pressure is up around 1031mb im not sure they will trigger, definitely feels stormy out there though! Im more excited about the end of the weekend, very interesting setup to come

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

However west that this band of cape pushes, the south east will always get something ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL

However west that this band of cape pushes, the south east will always get something ;)

How do u know I haven't seen a single storm yet this year. And if it goes to far west Portsmouth then end up with the good stuff
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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

As per usual - going to be a case of radar watching right up until the bone. We all know how finicky storm forecasting can be, at least any 'results' or storms that fire can be tracked accordingly, live and direct :)Wouldn't be surprised to see the odd rogue hefty shower later, perhaps Leicestershire, Notts, just east of the Pennines way later. Nothing major mind.

Must say the cap might give way at sometime indeed. Very unpredictable situation, I felt the GFS 6z had upgraded the CAPE for the next few days. Must take other factors into consideration however.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

Factors..yup including some sun cream maybe :) genuinely hope things fire accordingly, looking quite juicy if not ripe for at least some action - quite early in the season which is a bonus and considering last years distinct lack of action. Bout time...

The GFS shows Saturday Evening to be pretty crazy!

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

I've got one on Tuesday afternoon. That's exactly what I thought!

Same on Tuesday morning and it's a real GCSE exam!

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

I've got one on Tuesday afternoon. That's exactly what I thought!

 

Haha. I'm currently alternating between revising the depressing topic that is climate change and hitting F5 on this thread. What I'm liking about this is that the GFS is remaining rather consistent about it. Still plenty of time for it to go horribly wrong though yet...

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Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m

Well id be lying if i said i wasn't exited about the prospects of next Monday and Tuesday! 

 

Fingers crossed that we all see some action!

 

I'm particularly hoping for a storm at night, not seen lightning at night for a good 3 or 4 years now! 

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Darren Bett quickly mentions thunderstorms next week at the end of the latest BBC online weather forecast  :good:

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

I must say, I'm rather encouraged by the model output. They have remained steady, impressive :good:

post-19153-0-24125600-1400252807_thumb.jpost-19153-0-49537200-1400252832_thumb.j

post-19153-0-88132200-1400253045_thumb.j

Some PPN coming up from the continent - so imports some of which could be thundery

MCS development over the Bay of Biscay, should not be discounted at this stage

post-19153-0-86902300-1400253637_thumb.j

Some proper warmth situated over all of Western Europe, the heat is building as expected at this time of year.

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl

Cap refusing to burst although plenty of mid level convection happening around Birmingham atm......and time yet

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

The 12Z up to 3pm Sunday shows an upgrade again, for many areas. It's nice to see, but how many runs will continue the theme?

Edited by Mapantz
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