[Blog] Glastonbury Festival 2014 - Forecast No 1

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This is the first blog for the 2014 Glastonbury festival [25 to 29 June]

At this stage of the forecast, I am using a variety of techniques.

1. CFS Monthly Averages

2. CFS Raw Daily Runs

3. CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily

4. MJO Index

So moving on to the detail.

1. CFS Monthly Averages

These are produced weekly and this week Paul has very kindly supplied me with a higher resolution version of the forecast.

This indicates that rainfall in June will be lower than average for Glastonbury with temps above average. Good News indeed, however this is still a good way out.

However I will still show last week’s version for comparison and trend analysis. These charts are available from Net Weather Extra, titled under the section Long Range Forecast Maps.

June

The above shows the warmer than expected weather for the UK, and drier weather compared to normal, one big disadvantage of CFS is that rainfall tends to be shown over the Midlands, so it always overdoes rainfall in this area.

July

July continues the warm theme, but shows the risk of slightly wetter weather than normal. Unfortunately this is a problem with the Pressure charts this week, however this should be corrected by next week.

2. CFS Raw Daily Runs

CFS does a run for months ahead, and I have detailed the forecast for the Glastonbury festival from each daily run. These charts are available from Net Weather Extra, titled under the section Daily Long Range Charts [Raw CFS]

Example Run here -

For JuneRun       850Hpa    z500 (UK)           z500 (G)  PRMSL (UK)            PRMSL (G)  Temps 2m (UK)       Temps 2m (G)  Rainfall(Blue < average, Red > average) 06-May 0c to +2c   -4  (S) to +6  (N)   -2 to  0  -4  (S) to  0 (N)     -2 to -4   +0c (SE) to 6c (N)    0c to +2c   Red / White all S uk07-May             +2 (SW) to +6 (NE)   +4 to +5   0 (SW) to +2 (NE)    +1         +2c (S) to +4c (N)   +2c to +3c   Mix, White locally08-May -2c to 0c    0  (S) to +6  (N)   +1 to +2  +2  (S) to +6 (N)     +3 to +4   +0c (S) to +2c (N)   +1c to +2c   Blue most of UK, Light Red Far SW09-May 0c to +4c   +2  (W) to +4  (E)         +3  -2 (NW) to  0 (S/SE)   0         +2c (S) to +4c (N)   +2c to +3c   Blue most of UK, Light Red Midlands10-May        0c   -2 (SW) to  0 (Else) -1 to  0  -2 (SW) to  0 (Else)   0         +0c (S) to +2c (N)    0c to +1c   Blue / White all Southern UK