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East Pacific invest thread


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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

94E, 95E and 96E all came and went.

 

We now have invest 97E south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Conditions look still favourable for perhaps a very late season formation. Will we see a 'W' storm before we are done?

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL400 PM PST SUN NOV 16 2014For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:1. A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers andthunderstorms several hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco,Mexico.  Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive forslow development of this system while it moves west-northwestward at10 to 15 mph during the next several days.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.Forecaster Cangialosi

 

 

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  • 6 months later...
Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

A lovely view of Andres,  the first storm of 2015.

 

9F7kooH.jpg

 

 

....and a VIP forecaster on duty for latest update from the NHC.

 


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 281453
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
900 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

Deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone has continued
to expand this morning with a large area of cloud top temperatures
colder than -70 degrees Celsius. The convection has also become
better organized with an increase in banding and a developing
central dense overcast. Dvorak data T-numbers from both SAB and
TAFB were T2.5, which support upgrading the depression to a 35-kt
tropical storm.

The initial motion estimate is 295/12. Andres is located to the
south and southwest of a mid-level ridge that extends from
south-central Mexico west-southwestward over the eastern Pacific.
This ridge is expected to be the main steering influence during the
next several days, and should cause Andres to move
west-northwestward to northwestward. After 48 hours, track guidance
spread increases, with the GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF models taking
Andres on a more northerly track, while the GFS and GFS ensemble
maintain a northwesterly motion. The NHC track forecast remains
near the multi-model consensus for now.

Warm water and low shear during the next 2-3 days should allow for
steady strengthening. In fact, the SHIPS RI index indicates a 60%
chance of at least a 30-kt increase during the next 24 hours. The
updated NHC forecast calls for a faster rate of intensification over
the next 36 h than the previous one. In 2 to 3 days, the cyclone
will be approaching slightly cooler waters which should induce
weakening by the end of the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 11.6N 111.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 12.3N 112.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 13.0N 113.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 13.8N 114.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 14.8N 114.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 16.7N 115.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 19.0N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown and Barack Obama (PRESIDENT)

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Are we keeping this thread for this year or opening new ones?

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

I'm keeping this one for invest and general season discussion :). As this thread hasn't had a huge amount of replies we can still use this one for this year. Individual threads will still be made for individual tropical cyclones :)

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

We now have invest 93E to the east of Hurricane Andres, south of the coast of Mexico. Shear from Hirricane Andres' outflow is currently inhibiting development, but as Andres weakens and moves away, the disturbance should then develop. Models are quite keen on future development of this system. NHC give a 30% chance of TC formation in the next 48hrs, and 80% chance on the next 5 days.

Edited by Somerset Squall
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  • 2 months later...
Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Got a wave at 80% around 130E so decent chance of headed towards Hawaii.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

93C is at 50%.

 

cp201593_model.gif

 

I'm skeptical that it would head near Hawaii being so far south however we could get something similar to the G storm last year.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

That would be a very interesting outcome indeed, systems approaching Hawaii from the south always tend to be stronger on impact than those attempting, typically, to approach from the east. Conditions are always unfavourable east of Hawaii, but to the south? I have to say aswell, I am somewhat sceptical this will be the track 90C takes.

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  • 10 months later...
Posted
  • Location: s yorks
  • Weather Preferences: c'mon thunder
  • Location: s yorks

The extraordinary flat start to the Eastern Pacific hurricane season has finally kicked off!

96E is modelled (latest 12z gfs, dartboard low) to be a major 'cane extremely close to Hawaii? which is not totally FI & has merit for a major hot on the heels of current rapidly intensifying Cat 2 Blas, both no threat to Mexico & steered west by the CA ridge.

Will a pending favorable MJO phase bring some activity & credence of at least a low end cat cyclone to the caribbean/GOM etc come mid/late July?

 

 

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  • 4 weeks later...
  • 1 month later...
Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

Major hurricane Lester (category 3) looking very nice on hi-res satellite.

m8punp.jpg     21jvi1k.gif

At this moment in time no threat to land although there might be impacts for Hawaii by the weekend.

EP1316W5_NL.gif

A more immediate threat, Madeline now also a major - two now lining up on Hawaii.

gfs_mslpa_namer_2.png

 

Edited by Nouska
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Hurricane Madeline will narrowly miss the big Island while a category 2 hurricane. 

Hurricane warning issued for Hawaii. 

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

Jeff Master's blog - an extensive look at interaction of Madeline and Lester and risks to Hawaii..

In a dual scenario unprecedented in hurricane recordkeeping, two major hurricanes are heading toward Hawaii, and both could affect the island with high surf, torrential rain, and potential high winds over the next week. Hurricane Madeline is the closer of the two, located about 630 miles east of Hilo, HI, as of the 5 pm EDT advisory from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Now moving west-northwest at 10 mph, Madeline has been rapidly intensifying, growing from tropical storm to Category 3 strength in just 24 hours. As of 5 pm EDT, Madeline’s top sustained winds were at 115 mph. CPHC is projecting Madeline to move on a leftward-arcing path that would take it just south of the Big Island as a Category 1 hurricane by Wednesday night (see Figure 1 below). A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for all of the Big Island (Hawaii County). Update (11:30 pm EDT Monday]: Madeline's top sustained winds had increased to 125 mph as of the 11 pm EDT CPHC advisory.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3406

viz-1800Z-8.29.16.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Talk about a storm shield, shear has completely detached Madeline. 

Very windy in Hawaii no doubt (it's low level circulation will still be around hurricane force) but not a drop of rain by the looks of it. 

rgb0-lalo.gif

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