Scotland & The Far North Of England Regional Weather Chat

[lorenzo]

Magical start to the day here, very still, cold, light frost and foggy in a low Winter Sun. Good thing is we have a much better looking Roller Coaster design (atmosphere) for this Winter compared to last Winters ugly mess.

 

Already some eye catching charts sneaking around, and the pub run is beginning to think about throwing out general carnage which is always a great way to end the evening..

 

Buckle up ! As John Holmes wrote the other day -  we won't be far from either our laptops or lampposts in the months ahead.

[blitzen]

Fog finally rolling away here and the sun is appearing.   7.6c with an easterly breeze after an overnight low of 3.3c.

I haven't actually witnessed a frost here yet.   Probably was one through the night on bonfire night tho' as it was pretty chilly.

End of November/into early December is when I like to see things turning wintry.   I have a little more confidence then that it may last.

Never forget the year that we had deep snow on the 19th November and I thought that we were in for it that year.   Guess what, not another flake for the rest of that winter!   That year scarred me for life with regard to early onsets!   So...as long as the building blocks are there, I am more than happy to wait for a few more weeks yet!

Edited November 10, 2014 by Blitzen

[NorthernRab]

Low of -1.7'C here last night with thick freezing fog, temperature still only 1'C here currently.

[edo]

I'd steer clear at the moment - it's the usual mess in there, people TOORPing about downgrades that haven't even happened yet

This is an interesting post though, and sets out where we're maybe heading longer term

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81567-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20142015/page-14#entry3066608 

Anyway, very good charts tonight, including the best ensemble mean we've had since March 2013:

 

The initial easterly doesn't look all that cold but hints that, perhaps, we might get enough of a cold pool through from Scandi to make things interesting:

After that (if we get to that stage) it's a battle between Arctic air to the north and the Atlantic to the west - who will win?

 

 

Morning all

Lovely to be back at such an interesting time!! I'm never out of the MT must be winter

Lovely to hear of your upcoming wedding Edo, hope that a lovely( little)snowfall arrives.

Looking wet for the South and west this week. Friday the rain will reach here.

So looking forward to being back to the winter fun of the regional thread.

 

Thanks guys, I had already ventured in and to be fair as its november only the small toys out of the pram but out never the less, still was a lot of excellent reading and indeed in the strat thread so good to have so many posts to get our teeth into....

 

you are not practicing what you preach though LS i see you were trying to keep the natives calm so fair play to you on that #missionimpossible

Edited November 10, 2014 by edodfc

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

I'm getting married on November 29th so looking for a white wedding....and as we have 4kids won't be the non snow kind....

 

Congrats.

 

Hope you get 6 ft of snow on the day...

 

Edited November 10, 2014 by scottish skier

[SW Saltire]

Never forget the year that we had deep snow on the 19th November and I thought that we were in for it that year.   Guess what, not another flake for the rest of that winter!   That year scarred me for life with regard to early onsets!   So...as long as the building blocks are there, I am more than happy to wait for a few more weeks yet!

Exactly this.

I'm struggling to understand the frustration at the current predictions. It's better for the PV to be obliterated completely in mid December than now. Quite often cold in November is from Synoptics which are not that stable in the long-term.

We do not live in Russia, therefore wishing for a frigid Nov, Dec,Jan,Feb,Mar period is very wishful thinking.

Ultimately, we obviously have no control over the weather.

However, people need to stop throwing their toys out of the pram when marginal uppers are not predicted from a weak easterly.

They need to listen to posts from Tamara, SK, Nick Sussex, Chionomatic, Bluearmy etc. As well as LSS and Steve Muir et al.

Look at the bigger picture, realise that we are in a very promising position. Don't just see 'westerly winds and rain' but see the act that significant warmings may be taking place in the next couple of weeks and once they propagate down (so we therefore are talking 4-6 weeks from now) then we really will see good opportunities for cold. Not the sleet/wet snow type but more the proper -8/-10 upper temperature kind, which, combined with a fairly active jet could lead to many snowmen being built. Rant over.

[NorthernRab]

Daytime max of just 3.5'C here, chilly day!

[lorenzo]

Some of the accumulation charts for the wet stuff look entirely grim..

 

Cold and miserable wet mid-November ahead.

 

[NorthernRab]

Some of the accumulation charts for the wet stuff look entirely grim..

Cold and miserable wet mid-November ahead.

120-777PUK.gif168-777PUK.gif

Positively bone dry compared to the average for us in the Highlands though! Looking particularly wet (relative to the norm) around Angus, Perth and Fife on those charts though. Edited November 10, 2014 by NorthernRab

[Ravelin]

Temperature has dropped off again this evening with it currently sitting at 1.0 here. It'd be nice to get a frost 2 mornings in a row but I doubt it'll happen as it's forecast to warm slightly overnight.

[NorthernRab]

Very dense fog in the Highland capital, 0.2'C outside so very near freezing.

[blitzen]

Jings...positively tropical here then compared to what you folks further up are getting. 4.3c with a slight ENE breeze.

See the OPI result is in then? -2.12. Good enough forecast from it too. Pretty much at odds with most if not all of the LRF models though.

I remember saying at the onset of last winter that every winter, no matter if it is cold, mild, wet or dry, tells a story. Boy did that ring true! So, I suppose this one will have its story to tell also. Hope it's a happy ending!

Edited November 10, 2014 by Blitzen

[West Highland Storm]

Drove down the Great Glen tonight Inverness foggy and close to zero due to roadworks diversion trip up Glenmoriston where it was minus 2 got home to FW at 10pm where it was 8 degrees !

[NorthernRab]

^ aye it's fallen below -1'C here now, freezing fog beginning to form a hoar frost on surfaces. I'm up early tomorrow so hopefully I'll see a nice scene before the wind picks up.

[NorthernRab]

Drove down the Great Glen tonight Inverness foggy and close to zero due to roadworks diversion trip up Glenmoriston where it was minus 2 got home to FW at 10pm where it was 8 degrees !

Quite the difference, shows you what a few hills and mountains to your west can do. Hopefully we'll all be well below freezing this winter!

[Ravelin]

As suspected, it's 10.5C, breezy and damp this morning. Probably need to get used to that for the rest of the week.

[mistyqueen]

Cool and cloudy here, currently 13.8c....a helluva lot warmer than yesterday when we reached the heady depths of -0.1 yesterday morning at 6am. I look forward to the winter though and will just take whatever it flings at us, whether it be hail and gales, rain, ice, or snow. I do hope we don't have a visit from that really boring chappie Mr Mild though. He overstayed his welcome last year!

[snowy owl]

Slightly damp with a few drops of rain. All in all its v mild. A day for the garden I think.

[blitzen]

10.1c/ENE here which, by all accounts, will not change one iota until tomorrow afternoon. Rain due in shortly and will continue for 24hrs for my area. Ah the joys!

[Benvironment]

 

Funny clouds above the Lomonds this evening just before the light faded.  I can't recall seeing anything like that before.  Does anyone know what they are?

 

PS- The cooler weather has brought me out of Netweather hibernation but still only one frost up here so far this season

[Benvironment]

Felicity Martin, who recently wrote an article on clouds in Scotland Outdoors magazine just tweeted, she thinks they are super undulatus.  I've got no idea....but between the pair of you, some kind of undulatus appears to be the general consensus at this point

Edited November 11, 2014 by Benvironment

[Ravelin]

Saw very similar clouds a while back, but at night and illuminated by the moon. They were quite a sight. Tried to get a photo but none of them turned out that good.

Left the house this morning it was 10.5C, got home and it was 11.5C, now it's 11.2C, boring.!

[JP1972]

Well the cold weather doesn't appear to be happening now.

 

I think Steve Murr is probably banging his fists on the table as we speak.

 

Why oh why does he put himself through it every winter?!

 

What will be will be.

 

Hang on no, scrap that .... GFS T2400 shows the mother of all easterlies developing

[Cloud 10]

Well the cold weather doesn't appear to be happening now.

 

I think Steve Murr is probably banging his fists on the table as we speak.

 

Why oh why does he put himself through it every winter?!

 

What will be will be.

 

Hang on no, scrap that .... GFS T2400 shows the mother of all easterlies developing

 

The CFS brings it in at only 1644 hrs.

 

[BleakMidwinter]

Great stuff both charts and reports....feels like winter properly beginning....just needs this thread to have 2-4 pages a day to make it really winter.....will need to go into the MT to see if the building blocks still forming

I'm getting married on November 29th so looking for a white wedding....and as we have 4kids won't be the non snow kind....

 

 

Brilliant - congratulations to all of you! May you have many, many more happy years together with plenty of peace and contentment as well as the joy xx