Scotland & The Far North Of England Regional Weather Chat

[LomondSnowstorm]

Aye, it was a cold walk with the dogs this morning, cold and damp. I must be getting old, feeling the cold. A huge change from September which was one of the driest Septembers for most areas of Scotland in the last hundred years (away from the NW). It was also one of the warmest Septembers in the last hundred years but sunshine was decidedly average. It has not been a sunny year, but it has been very warm. 2014 is on course to be one of the warmest in the last hundred years.

Without having properly looked at the number my guess is that it'd be more due to high nighttime minima than particularly warm daytime temperatures. Winter was incredible in the sense that, while there were colder periods, there was scarcely an air frost for most of us, and in fact August was the only month which was notably below average, so far least.

The OPI value (I think, this is the cumulative value of October so far combined with the cumulative predicted value on the GFS out to D10, so covers over 1/2 the month) is at -2.93! That must be pretty close to a record low, or rather would be if it finished up like that.

edit: It's now at -3.42!!

Edited October 7, 2014 by LomondSnowstorm

[Northernlights]

Yes Aurora Storm and I noticed the very warm nights from the end of May for most of the summer which must have contributed to the record yields of grass ,spring barley and  tree growth when combined with absolutely perfect    mixed   weather. Add this to  both our thoughts on ever increasing CO2 levels and all plant life must have thought it was in heaven with  growth continuing at faster than usual rates right up to last week

 

 The downside to this for farmers is that a world shortage of grain 18 months ago has been transformed into a massive world surplus with prices on the floor and only bad weather will sort this out.Set aside is returning next year so the powers that be must have thought this was going to happen at some stage.  We now have 1980s prices with 2014 costs when growing grain.     Milk is also overproduced with superb grass quality alll summer to blame and prices here to the farmer are falling.

 

Dull and wet today currently7.9c

[NorthernRab]

Struggling to get much above 8'C here today. Overcast drizzly cold day, truly autumnal!

[Ravelin]

Really heavy squall line just coming through Aberdeen now and it's absolutely hammering it down. Shouldn't last long though hopefully.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Woke up to thick fog and 1C which was great! Its definitely getting closer to winter.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

New winter tyres just ordered. Got some of the new mixed winter/summer for Mrs SS's runaround, full on winters for me to replace my full on summers.

 

Had a couple of frosts here already.

 

Leather jaiket replaced by winter jaiket as of saturday past.

 

5 C the morn. 

 

It's time. Nights fair drawin in an that.

[mistyqueen]

Morning Campers! ( Yes, there are still a few of those hingin' aroon' the island! ) Calm, cloudy and cool here, currently 9c with a wee touch of rain overnight. It was a lovely autumnal day yesterday, can I have more like that please?

[Ravelin]

Hey, it's finally stopped raining here and I actually saw patches of blue sky on the drive into work. Not seen the sun yet though. Temp sat around 9C so feeling cool despite it being less windy than yesterday. Forgot to check the rainfall data for yesterday on the weather station this morning but I'm sure I remember it being over 37mm when I looked early evening.

Edited October 8, 2014 by Ravelin

[Big Innes Madori]

Some frost again this morning, so thats 4 times here in the last week!

Big Innes

[Dom W]

Pretty heavy showers over Peterlee about an hour ago, some lightning out at sea, cannot see it but can spot it on the map: http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

[SW Saltire]

I echo the observations that have been noted above.

Due to the University lifestyle, I only really notice the changes when I return home every 3 weeks or so.

Very noticeable changes since late September. A couple of cold mornings in Stirling, with low digit minima.

The main difference is the weakness of the sun, even at solar noon there are still noticeable shadows.

Roll on Winter!

Hopefully, we'll get a cold one. I stand more of a chance of experiencing a proper easterly and just snow in general, in Stirling as opposed to back home.

Certainly can't complain, IMO, about the weather this year

[Northernlights]

Ground hugging mist and fog this evening with clear skies and down to 4c.

[damianslaw]

In the space of a week we've gone from late summer to late autumn. We've had a bit of mist, our first air frost, heavy rain, strong winds and some low maxima.

 

Many more leaves all the ground now, and plants and late summer blooming flowers look a sorry state.

 

What is most notable is the change in rate of grass growth, 2 - 3 weeks it was still growing at a similar rate to mid summer, its slowed to half this rate now, good job as I am getting tired of cutting it. Its now a case of waiting for some fine weather to do its last cut..

 

It feels very much like the change from late August 1995 to early Sept 1995.

[skifreak]

In the space of a week we've gone from late summer to late autumn.

I can live with that every year!

[mistyqueen]

Morning all from a rather cool Skye. Temp down to 4.1 last night and has now crept up to 8.1 with lovely sunshine too! Proper autumn!

[SW Saltire]

I went and jinked it with the whole 'it's been dry' post above.

Heavy rain almost all night and extremely heavy/borderline torrential since 6am or so. Looks like a repeat show tomorrow too

Catch - I'm not even going to post photos since I have none since we had basically trace snow... Lots of sleet but very little actual lying snow.

I might post photos from March 2013 soon which is the level of snow I hope we get this winter

Looks like the early prognosis for this Winter is heavily positive and the cards (so to speak) are perhaps stacked in our favour but that doesn't guarantee anything for an island surrounded by mild water with a jet stream overhead aswell!

Edited October 9, 2014 by SW Saltire

[Ravelin]

I might post photos from March 2013 soon which is the level of snow I hope we get this winter

Looks like the early prognosis for this Winter is heavily positive and the cards (so to speak) are perhaps stacked in our favour but that doesn't guarantee anything for an island surrounded by mild water with a jet stream overhead aswell!

 

I don't know about anyone else but I'm trying not to get excited at the prospects for this winter after last year's non-event. Actually I'm getting damn nervous that because some pointers are looking very good we're in for another huge disappointment.

 

I think this was just about the most snow we saw last year, in Mid-Nov....

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19219-/

 

Compare that to the start of Dec 2010....

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19210-kemnay-snow-1/

 

Much more of the latter please this year.

[Big Innes Madori]

Does anyone wish to climb aboard the rollercoaster for another six months?

 

9th Oct GFS 00z +372hrs 850.png

 

It's so far out in F.I. that the peeps on Star Trek wouldn't bother going to it.

Aye OK then Catch, let's do it eh, let's climb aboard that bad boy!

Whit the hell!

An early plunge sir, oh suits you!

Big Innes

Edited October 9, 2014 by Big Innes Madori

[LomondSnowstorm]

OPI is down to -3.85 today, which if it came in at that would be the lowest value recorded by some margin.

If you've been following the OPI thread I mentioned that it had a stronger correlation with the following winter's temperature than the NAO, which is pretty impressive, although looking in more detail the correlation is, counterintuitively, stronger the later you go into winter.

Anyway, if you simply plug that OPI value into the equation for the trendline here's what you come out with for the Scotland temperature average:
December 0.6C (2.2C below average but still 1.8C 'milder' than 2010)

January -0.8C (2.9C below average)

February 0.2C(2.5C below average)

Now, that's not my prediction, there are certainly other factors involved and the OPI is unlikely to be quite as negative as that, but that's just to illustrate the type of winter, or at the very least the type of month, that's possible at the moment.

[Hawesy]

What a wet month October has been so far. Leuchars has already recorded 85mm through lunchtime today and there were more heavy showers this afternoon. October is on average the wettest month of the year here in NE Fife but even at that the monthly average is 77mm, which has already been surpassed.

[asjmcguire]

A few years ago, to test accuracy - I went in with some friends and bought a Piers winter sub.

This year - after what the Express printed, I have bought an ExactaWeather sub - again not expecting it to be accurate, but I'll be maintaining a spreadsheet of forecast vs actual.

 

I'll provide a link to the spreadsheet once I start.

[NUT]

The cloud's are rolling in. Rain not too far away I think. Weekend not looking too shabby though

[Sunshineandshowers84]

So much for Met Office dry and clear conditions for Glasgow this evening. Absolutely chucking it down infact torrential at one point. If it does clear up after the heavy showers it may well turn icy. Heavy showers this afternoon and 1 rumble of thunder again non of that was forecasted..

[NUT]

Had the wet afternoon...............Now comes the cold and fog (Been loving the foggy spells this week)

[Sunshineandshowers84]

The fog came with no notice. Was clear on Weds morning then at half 7 you suddenly had fog. Temp wasn't much above freezing either..