Scotland & The Far North Of England Regional Weather Chat

[Ravelin]

Meant to say, if you're looking for a good storm then look to either the 12/13th and/or the 17/18th Oct. I'll be on a ferry between Newcastle/Amsterdam and back on those days (work related) and I ain't the best on a boat when it's choppy, therefore I expect sods law to kick in.

[BleakMidwinter]

Sth Suburban Embra is mild and 17ish and bright/sunny these days… I've got the Lurgy, though, so I've already got the autumn's woolly jumpers on

I'm out and about a fair bit, enjoying my last autumn living in Scotland - gonnae miss it something chronic, but at least Telford has more frosts than Sth Suburban embra does, even if it also has 22-degree late Septembers! 

(Moving end of Nov - starting the other half of my life (the good bit), aged 45 )

[LomondSnowstorm]

Make no mistake about what is forecast in the next ten days...it could be very, very wet:

 

The ECM GFS 8 to 10 Day shows the upper trough parked over us:

 

29th Sept ECM GFS 8 to 10 Day 00z.gif

 

Which allows surface conditions like this from the ECM 00z +216hrs:

 

30th Sept ECM 00z +216hrs.gif

 

Which can only mean one thing at this time of year, rain. And loads of it:

 

30th Sept GFS 00z Rain Accum +60hrs.gif

 

30th Sept GFS 00z Rain Accum +96hrs.gif

 

30th Sept GFS 00z Rain Accum +144hrs.gif

 

30th Sept GFS 00z Rain Accum +192hrs.gif

 

A minor point at this stage, but it is nice to see so much red over Greenland, something that might provide interest even just a bit later on this month if it persists and the troughing shifts a bit further east. 

A number of the longer range models including the CFS have been hinting that Greenland might be a sweetspot for blocking this winter, which would obviously be a good outcome for us, particularly for the Highlands and Aberdeenshire, but it is very early days yet so confidence is low.

[LomondSnowstorm]

After last winter any blocking over Greenland will seem sweet

Heck, even a week long mid latitude high would be an improvement on last winter!

[Hawesy]

The last day of September was the warmest here....21.2c recorded at Leuchars yesterday! Despite that and all the settled weather, it wasn't a vintage month in NE Fife - too much of an easterly influence which kept sunshine totals below average.

 

Very pleasant today, sun's out again but cooler at 16c.

[LomondSnowstorm]

For you long range forecast watchers here''s the link to the calculated OPI (basically the more negative the better as far as getting a negative Arctic Oscillation and hence more cold air flooding southwards over he winter) http://app.til.it/opi/ The top value is, I believe, the calculation based on the 10 day GFS forecast while the chart shows the daily value, both of which are looking rather nice at the moment, albeit early days, whereas last October I recall we were already into significantly positive territory.

[Ravelin]

Oh so close to the first frost of the season last night with an overnight low of 0.6/0.2C. Bright sunny morning, could be the last for a while.

 

Edit: Well actually although there was only the merest hint of frost on the grass in my shaded, north facing back garden, the car across the street (in the shade) had frost on the windscreen when I left for work at 8:40. There were also some distinct patches on shaded areas of grass on my way out of the estate.

Edited October 2, 2014 by Ravelin

[Big Innes Madori]

White Frost on the grass and shed roof this morning!

Showing + 1 Deg C when I started the car.

Big Innes

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

CFS showing a dip in temperature towards the end of October. First cold spell of the season? May see the first falls of snow on higher ground on the colder days, not sure about that though.

 

[Northernlights]

Howling southerly gale tonight and currently14.1c. Put cows and calves onto 4 inches of fresh grass in a new field today quite sureal for October when we are normally running out of grass.

Edited October 2, 2014 by Northernlights

[lorenzo]

Yep, tomorrow is going to flip a switch and mean this balmy September will be a distant memory.

 

Bring on the real Autumn...

 

Hebrides at Storm force 10 on the shipping page, hefty gusts.

 

This fax smashes the benign conditions out of the park..

 

First real Atlantic Beastie on Satellite...

 

 

Edit - will add this science geekery - will be plenty of these around tomorrow at ground level...

 

 

 

Edited October 2, 2014 by lorenzo

[NUT]

Could be a quite important front this (Kind of wonder if the gleneagles organisers are thankful that the ryder cup was last week rather than this) Seems this front though incoming is going to be the start of autumn proper

[Northernlights]

Rain just started ,windy and 15.1c currently.

[NUT]

Not been as wet as I thought it might have been. Rain just pepping up a bit now though

[frogesque]

Fife looking dark and ominous at times, blustery but little rain so far. Feels mild still but I get the impression that it could all change (for the worse) at any moment.

[Ravelin]

Been virtually no rain here today so far, just cloudy, breezy and relatively mild.

[edo]

Peeeeeeeeeeessssshing down here kids gonna be cabin fever crazy tomorrow by the looks of things

[Jo Farrow]

44mm of rain overnight in my lemonade bottle rain gauge (ready for Guides this week)  1.7"

[lorenzo]

Back Patio now a back Pond.. and the steady rain continues. A right good soaking.

[Hawesy]

A wet 24 hours here with 37mm at Leuchars through 7am. Still raining.

[NorthernRab]

Very windy here over the past couple of days, now raining after weeks of dry weather.

[mistyqueen]

Ach, it was a guid blast on Skye and I missed in due to being on holiday in foreign lands. ( Durham! Lovely area! ) It is however, a lovely morning up here so I'd best get the manky holiday claes washed and oot on the line!

[skifreak]

So it begins on CairnGorm...

[Hawesy]

Yes, definite switch to Autumn this week, as reflected in the max temp readings at Leuchars:

Sun 20c

Mon 20c

Tue 21c

Wed 17c

Thu 16c

Fri 15c

Sat 9c @ 1200 hrs

It's 8.4c in my back garden, fire is lit!

[Norrance]

8.6C here and just found out central heating is not working. 36 mms since yesterday morning. Total for whole of September was  13mms.