South East England, East Anglia & Central Southern England Regional Weather Chat

[Reefseeker]

Beautiful sunset tonight after a mostly sunny day with plenty of cloud also, but in a pleasant way.

Some pics from the garden a few minutes ago:

Plus after last night's storm, I took some pics of the 'sky of two halves' - raining above me with blue sky seemingly only yards away as I walked - or rather splashed - to pick up my son from trampolining:

Edited June 5, 2014 by Reefseeker

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Evening all, lovely pleasant day here, lots of sunshine and just some fair weather cloud.

 

So Saturday, not sure how things will go as at the moment I think we might be in a different situation to most of the UK, the front won't bother us until late on. So any showers might end up being home grown ahead of the front. 

My thinking, West cambridgeshire/Norfolk will see the highest chance of thunderstorms, these potentially severe in nature (so large hail, strong winds).

Somewhere in the London/Cambridge area will break the 80F mark on Saturday.

 

If that isn't enough then Monday could see us doing it all again, and in my opinion might see the better chance of night-time imports from France.

I hope so Captain ( and as you are in SW, Norfolk has a better chance :-)  )

 

I fear that it will run west of me, but I should see some lovely skyscapes

[Captain Shortwave]

I hope so Captain ( and as you are in SW, Norfolk has a better chance :-)  )

 

I fear that it will run west of me, but I should see some lovely skyscapes

I'm making things worse as I'm in Benfleet this coming weekend (though I'm in Chelmsford on Saturday so maybe a chance there).

 

Impressive maximum temperatures, with all the hype there is a chance we could bag the warmest day of the year so far.

 

Now whilst I covered homegrown stuff, what hasn't been covered is the potential for imports (like what the west will see Saturday morning)

Now here is the surface and mid-level charts for Saturday evening

Seriously impressive amounts of Cape, now if we can drag up some storms from France then we could see a serious lightshow. It's a big if and this model is actually showing a large percentage of East Anglia with a grand total of 0mm of rain (oddly on the European viewpoint there is around 20-30mm)

So the question is, are you feeling lucky

Edited June 5, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Dami]

I fear Bedford is doomed for Saturday. I'm ever so loving the storm forecast for that day, although i'm sure it just needs to be updated.

 

I'm hoping that a cape of 2363j/Kg and an Li of -8 maybe quite good if it stays like that?

 

Just wondering why there isn't more warnings out there, if it could become quite bad in places. Still got the yellow in Met O but at least my light rain is now tah dah! Heavy showers.

[saint]

CAPE values, from what I can gather from the Storm thread, have moved slightly more eastwards, which could help us.

I fear Bedford is doomed for Saturday. I'm ever so loving the storm forecast for that day, although i'm sure it just needs to be updated.

 

I'm hoping that a cape of 2363j/Kg and an Li of -8 maybe quite good if it stays like that?

 

Just wondering why there isn't more warnings out there, if it could become quite bad in places. Still got the yellow in Met O but at least my light rain is now tah dah! Heavy showers.

 

No more warnings yet, because, quite simply, even at this stage, you cannot be sure about where the storms could/are likely to be due to how difficult to predict they are. Updated warnings will certainly be published tomorrow.

[80sWeather]

My word, if the thunder is as loud as the sonic boom I heard earlier, I think my heart will pack up! Anyone else hear it ?

Wife told me she heard thunder today and I wondered how as no storms reported today.So after seeing your post, it makes sense now!

[Dami]

CAPE values, from what I can gather from the Storm thread, have moved slightly more eastwards, which could help us.

 

No more warnings yet, because, quite simply, even at this stage, you cannot be sure about where the storms could/are likely to be due to how difficult to predict they are. Updated warnings will certainly be published tomorrow.

many thanks, here's hoping anyways!

Edited June 5, 2014 by Dami

[Mesoscale]

I am going to be in Southampton from tomorrow, Cape is not looking to good there. What a weekend I picked to sort out my house for the next renters.

[Daniel*]

I fear Bedford is doomed for Saturday. I'm ever so loving the storm forecast for that day, although i'm sure it just needs to be updated. I'm hoping that a cape of 2363j/Kg and an Li of -8 maybe quite good if it stays like that? Just wondering why there isn't more warnings out there, if it could become quite bad in places. Still got the yellow in Met O but at least my light rain is now tah dah! Heavy showers.

Quite good, you kidding? Ripe for something spectacular. Nice Photos Reefseeker.Well not much has been said about East Anglia but personally I expect it to be more rampant that a way. The situation is quite volatile. Hence the lack of definite words of Thunderstorms on the national forecasts, and so on. M25 northwards is looking sweet. Southern coasts minimal cape. Thus little activity. There has been a shift E, but nothing to be concerned, at this juncture.

[Tom Jarvis]

So my only hope is imports from France then. And then they have still not delivered

[Norfolk Sheep]

I hope so Captain ( and as you are in SW, Norfolk has a better chance :-)  )

 

I fear that it will run west of me, but I should see some lovely skyscapes

Time for me to wake up weather wise I think  

I'm guessing that west might just be best on Saturday, that is, t'other side of the M11. My friends in Cambs have had some pretty good storms already this year, can't see it being any different at the moment. As usual it's all wait and see what happens in a couple of days!

[john pike]

sorry guys

 

no updates tonight as keyboard broken

 

saturday looks stormy but its how stormy is the question

 

also who gets what is the hard bit too

 

anyway monday

 

http://www.weathercharts.net/noaa_ukmo_prognosis/PPVM89.gif?31415

 

that looks very interesting :-)

 

my system should be ok for tomorrow

 

anyway goodnight guys

[Lauren]

Seems to have been a definite downgrade for Kent overnight.

[Heisenberg]

Morning all

 

Good posts in the storm thread. TIETS has a map of where he and others think the worst hit will be. Im right on the southern edge so fingers crossed we get something memorable.

[lassie23]

Morning all

 

Good posts in the storm thread. TIETS has a map of where he and others think the worst hit will be. Im right on the southern edge so fingers crossed we get something memorable.

Nice sunny day here, how is the pup?

[Reefseeker]

A beautiful sunny day with some very high thin cloud not interfering at all with the warmth on the ground. Mixed feelings about the storm possibilities for the weekend. Haven't checked the experts' views yet in the storm thread, but I think SW London seems to be borderline for the storms. With a broken roof and no roofers available for at least a month, my love of storms is fighting with my practical side that doesn't want any rain to come pouring in. As we all know too well, these things will do what they do, and there is nothing we can do to change it.

Thanks Daniel and Snowlady for the nice comments about my sky pics. Have a nice sunny day everyone:)

[Heisenberg]

Nice sunny day here, how is the pup?

Hi mate,

 

He is doing really well thanks. Sitting on command and walking off the lead. I still cant upload a pic at work but with the pending action tomorrow i will probably be on line later so will put a pic on then.

 

A lovely day here in town so far, looking forward to something good tomorrow......

[saint]

Not too many changes over night in regards to the South and East, but the minor changes that have occurred have put parts of the region into the firing line for some pretty decent storms tomorrow. 

[fulham snow]

Lovely day on Epsom Downs with a cooling breeze.

May get storms tomorrow but looks 50/50.

Will go to the Derby if it stays dry otherwise could be a bit dodgy with a steel tipped ummbrela.

[Tom Jarvis]

Anyone know any good places to go that have a great view looking south in my area??

[dwalton]

I think the further East you are in the South East the less chance you have

[Harps]

You never really know with convective weather, it's essentially chaotic so if things do start happening then a storm could pop up anywhere

Not really expecting much in London but keeping my hopes up, if we don't get anything at least we'll have a good hot summers day as a consolation

[Tamara]

A nice sunny day is the prelude to a thundery breakdown late this evening as increasingly warm and humid air drawn up from France destabilises in tandem with a mid level trough through tonight. This is then followed by a cold front advancing from the west through the first half of tomorrow and moving NE to provide some potentially heavy thunderstorms to areas most especially north of London through the afternoon - whilst southern and western parts of the region see the atmosphere stabilise and the weather improve later in the afternoon.

 

Uncertainty over elevated convective initiation late today and more especially after midnight continues, but confidence is growing that mid level convection is very likely to organise itself from the channel as convective available potential energy (CAPE) in these mid layers increases over the region from the south through this evening. Much of the modelling indicates that the highest tongue of mid level instability could be focussed in the west of the region (at first) with elevated showers and storms arriving on the south coast perhaps into Hampshire and West/central Sussex and Surrey anytime from midnight. A small trigger trough ahead of the cold front as depicted on the fax charts seems to be why the highest mid level energy is focussed here and will act as the catalyst for destabilising and releasing this elevated convective energy.

 

The convective trough ahead of the cold front shows up on the 06z Fax chart for dawn tomorrow and supports latest modelling in terms of suggested shower and storm initiation over the western parts of the region

Very latest Euro4 ppn chart is inline with the positioning of this feature too into the early hours of Saturday

 

 

 

As we head towards dawn these elevated storms look quite likely to become more expansive and head NE'wards

 

 

 

They clear NE'wards through the morning, but in any sunshine that follows there is very high potential for surface based convection (this time) to build as the cold front advances towards, and then through, the region. The timing of the cold front may well mean that areas ahead of it over the north of the region that see the highest insolation in the area, consequently correspondingly have the highest surface convective energy available just ahead of the front and could well trigger some strong storms and severe weather. 

 

But nowhere obviously is immune to these and the midday/lunchtime period could see very rapid cumulonimbus development to great heights in any of the Home counties with the most unstable air only cleared the south west of the region by late afternoon as the cold front passes though. Any storm initiation that might occur around the London area could be the focus for these to develop further as they head NE through the afternoon into northern most part of the region. The surface CAPE charts show a very loaded gun scenario over the north and east of the region especially - with the cap on the atmosphere perhaps spectacularly snapped though insolation heating and the trigger of the cold front itself forcing this very warm unstable air upwards extremely rapidly. By this time Hampshire and parts of Sussex and West Surrey could well be drying up

 

 

Detailed modelling however in this respect for tomorrow itself is especially uncertain, so probably little point in posting actual ppn charts for tomorrow at this stage - notwithstanding the areas north of London being perhaps at highest risk of intense surface storm development for the reasons given. 

 

The initial elevated convective event is still to be determined by developments over Biscay later today, and in turn this will determine the extent and speed of clearance of overnight and early morning storms ....which in turn will determine where surface based convection most likely occurs during tomorrow. 

 

By late this evening a better picture will be emerging to see if reality of the plume destabilisation matches the models growing consensus for convection to arrive in south western parts of the region from midnight.

 

Whether one likes storms or not - there is a lot to watch out for in the next 36 hours

Edited June 10, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[fulham snow]

Anyone know any good places to go that have a great view looking south in my area??

I would go North to Epsom Downs,but maybe a bit of a battle as Derby day.

I live there so a small work.

[Tom Jarvis]

EPeson downs a bit too far away for me unfortunately