South East England, East Anglia & Central Southern England Regional Weather Chat

[Mesoscale]

perfect light pullover temperature out there right now, love it!Lets hope it continues with the occasional thundery interlude! 

[Reefseeker]

I've got 26 degrees in the shade of the garden. Could this be right ? Glad I did my 7 mile country walk round the Esher area much earlier this morning in the cooler temps. Beautiful scenes, Britain really shines when it wants to.

Out of interest, what route did you take? I mostly power walk and am always after some good scenic tours:)Yep,hot, sunny and fab here today, ending with the inevitable barbecue. Brilliant.

[Jax]

missing the sun now

[Chloe]

Nice photos Jax & Reefseeker :good:A warm day, Summer has finally arrived. Even in Greater London we failed to hit 22C to be frank, Northolt always seems to have the highest maxima 23.5C, Today. Northolt is not the most built up area, yet seems to always record the highest temperatures. Why is this?...

Northolt is very flat and open hence northlot airport hope this helps we seem to be a little cooler due to been lower down between harrow on the hill and horsendon hill but great if we get storms

[fluid dynamic]

Out of interest, what route did you take? I mostly power walk and am always after some good scenic tours:)Yep,hot, sunny and fab here today, ending with the inevitable barbecue. Brilliant.

 

Hi Reefseeker,

I started from the Horseshoe Clump carpark , around Esher Common, West End Heath about 2 hrs total at a fairly brisk non stop pace. Its a walk from this book (number 24). A very scenic bit on the banks of the River Mole

 

http://www.amazon.co.uk/In-Around-London-Walks-Pathfinder/dp/0711710554/ref=sr_1_43?ie=UTF8&qid=1400448810&sr=8-43&keywords=pathfinder+guide+books

[john pike]

hi all

 

tonight

 

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

 

warm and looks dry

 

there is a slim chance a shower may hit the far south of our region overnight but only slim

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tomorrow

a warm southerly flow

 

rainfall prediction

 

at 8am

 

 

showers should effect the far south and west of our region (there is a doubt on how far east these showers will get)

 

these showers look to head north east so some areas of the south east will miss these totally (they do weaken as the head north east)

 

at 2pm

 

 

showers effecting areas north of the region around this time will be patchy

 

however locally the odd rumble may happen but not over convinced on this

 

by 8pm

 

 

a better chance of a rumble or 2 with some heavy showers but looks restricted to the far north of our region

 

temps

 

 

22-23 degrees

 

locally ie west london heathrow or central 25-26 degrees

 

will start to feel more humid as the day progressives

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

the best chance in my eyes for something more widespread is tuesday just before breakfast south of our region

 

 

 

then by 12

 

starts to effect areas south east and north west of our region

 

later in afternoon effecting east and north east of our region

 

temps

 

anywhere from 18 degrees

 

to 24 degrees and the higher looks norfolk - suffolk areas

 

overnight

 

still a warm southerly flow

 

rainfall

 

looks to be widespread heavy rain

 

however my call is localised heavy showers and more likely north of our region

 

temps

 

 

12-15 degrees

 

cape

 

 

there looks potential for some thundery showers overnight but to me it looks like north and north east of our region looks favourite

 

i am not ruling thundery showers elsewhere but dont bank on them

 

the best advice is watch the radar and see what happens

 

also wednesday late looks wet

 

thursday looks wet

 

friday starts wet

 

then heavy rain moving in for lunchtime on

 

 

friday night looks like heavy rain

 

saturday looks warm and another thundery risk day

 

it may be worth keeping an eye on rainfall totals again as flooding could start becoming a bit of an issue as we get towards next weekend

 

hope your all well

 

regards

 

john

[Vince Coombes]

So JP no storms or mcs's moving north from france then ?

[john pike]

hi vince

 

certainly the risk for storms is there tuesday and tues night

 

the day that looks interesting also is late friday

 

although to be honest this week has potential nearly every day

 

but its going to be a radar watch as a nightmare putting these in exact spots

 

re mcs from france i would say no although would love to be wrong on that

 

 

 

 

 

thats late friday above although a long way out

[Vince Coombes]

Cheers fella interesting times I feel .though one would expect the real biggies in a few weeks time .a repeat of 07/06/1996 would satisfy me for another 10 years.lol

Aylesbury

Bucks

[john pike]

hi vince

 

yep that would do

 

certainly going to be an interesting week

 

i am looking forward to tuesday then fri and whatever else comes up in between

 

anyway gotta go bed as work tomorrow

 

goodnight mate

[lassie23]

Could hit 26c in London today, then the rest of the week looks unsettled and possibly thundery!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Risk of imports tonight only slim but we all know how thunderstorms just spring up on us

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

19.7c here clear sky, if it stays that way I'll see a good bit of surface warming today, GFS showing a 72% chance of a storm tonight with 700 CAPE, so good chance of a homegrown storm, would really love an overnight import! Looking at the forecasts paris is due a good storm on Wednesday, so Weds night could get interesting

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Doing a bit of analysis on tonight if we get imports or not..

 

First off Wind direction..

 

Now looking at these the red circle indicates where you want a storm to be for it to hit you..

 

 

Interesting feature there in terms of a convergence zone..

 

 

PPN...

 

 

 

 

Although after say midnight cape is very limited and LI are high elevated storms should make it..

 

[Reefseeker]

Hi Reefseeker,I started from the Horseshoe Clump carpark , around Esher Common, West End Heath about 2 hrs total at a fairly brisk non stop pace. Its a walk from this book (number 24). A very scenic bit on the banks of the River Mole http://www.amazon.co.uk/In-Around-London-Walks-Pathfinder/dp/0711710554/ref=sr_1_43?ie=UTF8&qid=1400448810&sr=8-43&keywords=pathfinder+guide+books

Thanks for that FD, will order it definitely.Beautiful blue skies and sunshine from Surbiton to Uxbridge this morning; wondering whether it will be too hot to walk the running track at lunch time. Might even need to break out the sun cream if it stays this way.Have a good day everyone:)Edit: In the last 15 minutes there have been some very strong gusts whisking through the trees and rattling the blinds. Edited May 19, 2014 by Reefseeker

[A.J]

Hi luke, for elevated imports you'll find it better looking at the MLCAPE charts, and also the 500hpa wind flow charts for steering winds, as surface CAPE & surface wind flow charts are pretty irrelevant at that time of night 

 

I'll pop in a post after the NMM hi-res 06z run is out with some relevant charts so we can have look at the progged parameters

Edited May 19, 2014 by ajpoolshark

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Hi luke, for elevated imports you'll find it better looking at the MLCAPE charts, and also the 500hpa wind flow charts for steering winds, as surface CAPE & surface wind flow charts are pretty irrelevant at that time of night 

 

I'll pop in a post after the NMM hi-res 06z run is out with some relevant charts so we can have look at the progged parameters

 

I was thinking more surfaced based for now... Elevated I don't have accesses to the charts if you could that would be good

[Lauren]

Anyone fancy a quick jaunt over to France/Belgium with some leaf blowers to send the convection over to the UK?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Looks like towers going up here in North Surrey anyone near me see em?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Tbh, on SAT24, I haven't seen such a good fetch from Spain in a long long time. There looks to be none of this abrupt right swings over the English Channel, just straight up onto us directly Northwards. That is what used to happen alot I'm sure before 2007 anyway, as was evident from the storms we used to get. Lets hope it stays this way as it is

[MP-R]

Looks like towers going up here in North Surrey anyone near me see em?

 

Got some fair weather cumulus growing at the moment, fairly harmless looking. Feels like a good storm today though!

[Reefseeker]

So many cauliflower clouds in the sky now it's only about 50% sunshine with the breeze still continuing. Be interesting to see what the afternoon and evening bring.

Edit: The scientific analysis (!) following my 3-mile walk around the running track at lunchtime is that sunshine/cloud ratio is around 80/20 even though conditions aloft give the appearance of more cloud in the sky, so the sun must be burning it off when it comes to conditions below. When the sun does go in and the wind gets up it feels like a completely different day, moving from hot sunny humidity to grey and windy within a matter of seconds.

Edited May 19, 2014 by Reefseeker

[Neilsouth]

Feels so humid

[lassie23]

26.1c, sunny, breezy, lovely day! Noise pollution high though! Drilling, hammering, barking, music, shouting and lawnmowers! The sounds of summer! Maybe I'll get some peace and quiet when the storms arrive!

Edited May 19, 2014 by lassie23

[Essexwader]

My two thermometers are reading 24c & 26c, so perhaps it's around 25c!

Only cloud I can see is that from contrail, albeit my vision West is restricted by 60' Oaks at bottom of garden.

Second check shows a few small fluffy clouds over Kent.