South East England, East Anglia & Central Southern England Regional Weather Chat

[Wet'n'Dry]

I can see them too, must be Watford way, or further out!

I think that's gonna be here in an hour or so, can I suffer 3 storms in such a short space of time? You betcha :-)

Edited May 12, 2014 by Wet'n'Dry

[tadpole]

Now have rain and hubby said it's tipping down in Croydon too

[k66yla]

Just taken the dog for a walk and was greeted by this sky. Still no rain.

Apologies for it being sideways!

[Daniel*]

Torrential Rain and Thunder about 10 minutes ago

That beast ^ seems to be the culprit, charged cells, no Supercell the search goes on

Edited May 12, 2014 by Daniel*

[Neilsouth]

Hail, thunder, moonsoon!

 

It went from like 6pm to 9pm in darkness lol

[Wet'n'Dry]

The 2nd storm has now passed, a good few CG's and loud thunder, loads of rain and pea sized hail. No real structure that I could see so a photo wasn't worth sharing.

[Lauren]

Lots of heavy rain but not T&L so far, we can only hope!

[Neilsouth]

Lots of heavy rain but not T&L so far, we can only hope!

 

Looks like there could be one towards Ashford

[Wet'n'Dry]

Can anyone in Watford/West London let us know what's coming?

[Crepuscular Ray]

Not a lot from my bit of West London at the moment convection appears to be dropping off. Hopefully there's more to the north that will head your way. 

Edited May 12, 2014 by Crepuscular Ray

[Neilsouth]

Oh nice an intense echo has appeared over canterbury, time to look

[lassie23]

First rumble of thunder in NW London! All the action still seems to be to the north of me!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

M25 convection anyone !! Look at the radar with all of the rain in a circle around Greater London

[Bluebreezer54]

Well it looked promising earlier here but apart from a brief torrential downpour nothing much happened.

 

 

[Lauren]

Same here Blue!

[DannyH]

10.8mm in Rayleigh since 7pm and more to come - always amazes me how Essex develops a North / South split with its weather.

Still remember the insane 100mm we had in 24 hours last August whilst Witham, Colchester etc remained almost bone dry!

[gottolovethisweather]

Lucky blighters in the SE today, last chance for isolated storms tomorrow, for a good while. Thereafter pressure will rise and I personally think today was the better chance of the two days for storms, won't be long before some more T&L comes knocking though I suspect. Looking forward to a calmer period and some warmth, how high can we go is the next pertinent question, perhaps mid 70s in an isolated place come Friday/Saturday, you just never know.

Edited May 12, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Callie]

After a nice sunny early morning, it turned a bit at lunchtime and we did have heavy rain for a while but no thunder! I did venture out to Bexhill and got this photo looking back towards Eastbourne.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I reckon some storms will be on the cards this weekend or after, more especially in the form of some imports if we see a decent cut off low

[Tamara]

Further to my post earlier today, and an aside from the convective conversation prevailing in the thread   this evenings output consolidates the trend to send the weekend trigger low as a cut-off feature west of the UK which has better omens for this region come the latter part of next weekend and into next week. For sure some kind of breakdown will occur, but we look to be on the eastern side of the trough as it disrupts from north to south and this means that temperature drops after the cold front moves SE late on Sunday will be restricted and a further warm-up thereafter is looking increasingly possible..

 

The ECM 12z continues to be consistent in this respect and I think advertises the evolution well at this time

 

 

Expect some showery rain and relatively cooler temperatures at the start of next week - but with the trough disengaged from the jet stream then the residual low should fill in situ somewhere circa SW of the UK with mid latitude ridging asserting itself thereafter

 

Perhaps that humid continental airstream, as suggested by the Canadian GEM model of late, has gained a little more support tonight

 

Update this morning : I would be very wary of making conclusions from the output this morning (such as is happening on the MOD thread). There is still uncertainty from Monday and both the UKMO and GEM are quite consistent with developments last night and the 'apparent' consensus (such as on this occasion in the GEFS ensembles to sit the trough right over the UK) is often shown not to be the right consensus! A return to somewhat more unsettled conditions does seem likely but despite the uncertainty the trough close to western UK overall still remains favourite as stated yesterday. The way the ECM operational handles the cut-off low between days 5 and 10 looks very doubtful and not worth taking much notice of at this stage.

 

Further update: The latest GFS is edging towards the UKMO and GEM with the surface pattern orientation and positioning of the trough. Warm continental air is always going to be close by to our region. Next weeks modelling on a micro scale looks very difficult much as suspected it would

 

 

'Further further' update before I close posting on this thread - at the least for this summer. The ECM this evening returns to the fold with the cut-off low to the SW of the UK as we arrive into the first part of next week. Looks rather like last nights chart progression once more

 

Ciao

 

Edited May 13, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Lauren]

Got nowt but rain here in the end and even then we only got a brief downpour.

[lassie23]

Raining heavily in NW London still, had a few rumbles of thunder earlier but all the storm activity has died away. 9.2c, at least the cat is indoors nice and early for once!

[Biggin]

Heavy rain here too

[john pike]

hi all

 

doing tomorrow only for now

 

 

a weak westerly flow early veering northerly midday on

 

rain - see fax a trough as shown above

 

rainfall

 

starts mainly dry barring showery bits to our far south and east

 

rain will move in quick and some will be heavy

 

as we head towards dark most areas should be dry

 

temps

 

 

somewhere around 13-15 degrees

 

maybe reduced the far north east of region due to the wind

 

cape

 

 

 

 

 

looks very similar to today

 

tip- watch the radar and hope for a bit of early sun

 

anyway be back later

 

john

[Mark Neal.]

Thunder here earlier in the heavy downpour.

Edited May 12, 2014 by Mark N