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Convective / Storm Discussion - 1st May 2014 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Seen some wicked cb's explode over East Anglia in the distance. Look at that derecho like feature that exploded on the Norfolk Coast! We were just out of timing this morning when the best instability area was passing over lincs and the east in the early hours of the morning. Shame really as conditions have been perfect today in terms of insolation.

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    Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything interesting - mostly storms or snow
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, UK

    Rising columns keep popping up to the north and south. Some textbook anvils. Slightly on the weak looking side but they keep missing me. The best ones keep passing just to the south.

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    Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything interesting - mostly storms or snow
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, UK

    Seems like that's the last of it. It's moved off over Europe and exploded over there.

    That was fun while it lasted. Too bad most of it just missed me.

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    Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia

    Cells are still hanging around, its been like that all afternoon from 1pm onwards multiple cells around us. My phone battery was too low to take photos byt with some charge now I'll take the opportunity to record or take some photos.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder Storms. All extreme weather.
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)

    This was the stormy looking skies in Ipswich earlier...but no T&L unfortunately. :(

    post-17085-0-92305100-1399652524_thumb.j

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    Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia

    From the acle straight. Cell to the north.

    Convection still present, surface temps still pretty hot.

    Edit: now under a moderate convective shower at present in Norwich NR2 lol

    post-7331-0-33766300-1399652710_thumb.jp

    Edited by Greenday
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    Posted
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Humid Continental Climate (Dfa / Dfb)
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL

    I am currently watching the Hamburg Earth Cam because a storm is moving into the city!http://www.earthcam.com/world/germany/hamburg/Storms seem to be going straight west to east today! Very blustery not had any rain and it feels quite nice outside.

    Edited by Mesoscale
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    Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia

    I reckon the last 2 cells are heading off into the sea now. Will post a summary of today later.

    Nice to view those on radar while visually viewing the cells.

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    Posted
  • Location: St helens, Merseyside 46m asl
  • Location: St helens, Merseyside 46m asl

    Estofex has me under a level 1 tomorrow for weak tornadoes and scattered thunderstorms

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Yes, a very interesting estofex forecast for tomorrow. I'll have my camera ready. Lincolnshire looks a good spot!

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    Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside

    Some very intense rainfall sat in the Irish Sea at the moment. Expecting to be woken up around 1-2am by it!

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    Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL

    For anyone who hasn't seen it through the Estofex website yet, here is their forecast for later today

     

    Posted Image

     

    DISCUSSION

    ... Ireland and UK ...

    Occlusion wraps around the vertically stacked vortex and undercuts cold mid-levels. Weakly capped 400-800 J/kg SBCAPE evolve due to mid-level lapse rates of 7K/km and aforementioned well mixed marine BL. Scattered thunderstorms evolve with peak activity between noon and sunset. Weak shear at mid/upper levels precludes organized updrafts, so marginal hail and gusty winds will be the main hazard. Attention turns to the lowest 3 km with enhanced LLCAPE and SRH-1 aoa 100 m^2/s^2 especially from parts of N-Ireland to CNTRL UK. A few funnel/short-lived tornado events are forecast. Thunderstorms and severe risk diminishes until midnight.

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    Posted
  • Location: BRISTOL
  • Location: BRISTOL

    Interesting Estofex forecast wonder if anything will happen here today hoping if it does its after midday as I'm stuck in work until then.

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    Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
  • Weather Preferences: warm and sunny, thunderstorms, frost, fog, snow, windstorms
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl

    Lightning must have hit very nearby! that was the loudest thunder Ive heard in a while! :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

    Lightning must have hit very nearby! that was the loudest thunder Ive heard in a while! :D

     

    A few strikes to the east of Oldham this morning, a good start to the day :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside

    Fingers crossed for a thundery day.

    Surprised how quiet the forum is today seen as this is probably the best chance of some home grown storms we've had (especially up north) in a good few weeks.

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    Fingers crossed for a thundery day. Surprised how quiet the forum is today seen as this is probably the best chance of some home grown storms we've had (especially up north) in a good few weeks.

    Exactly why, because it's up north. nuf said
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    Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

    Temperatures and dew points are already at 14c/11c today and so higher than in any of the past two days where convective activity was possible. There is also sunshine out here in Derby. However, my eyes are looking a little further north than where I am currently with Northern England looking to be in the best spot (using a combination of GFS and WRF charts) although that is not to say that a much wider area isn't in with a chance of something today:

     

    post-2719-0-69092100-1399709917_thumb.pn  post-2719-0-66415600-1399709926_thumb.pn

     

    Estofex are pretty much thinking the same thing with a level 1 and 50% lightning risk across this region.

     

    If I was to attempt to pick a sweet spot today I would go for somewhere like the Humber down into Lincolnshire but that is basically a guess with an area across Lancashire also looking good.

    Edited by Supacell
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

    Exactly why, because it's up north. nuf said

    Well, people from the North do not get excited at the prospect of storms in the South, so I would not expect someone from Surrey or London to get excited about a thunderstorm in Manchester or Liverpool. I only post here if there is potential for my area - although I'll still enjoy reading reports of storms elsewhere.

    Edited by cheese
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    Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m

    Im off to skegness for the day! Oh the joys;)

    Looks like it might put me in a better place for storms however

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    Posted
  • Location: cleethorpes
  • Location: cleethorpes

    Im off to skegness for the day! Oh the joys;)Looks like it might put me in a better place for storms however

     

    good luck but be careful our roads are bad in lincolnshire.  Potholed twisty

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
    A showery weekend and some storms today for some lucky people, central Britain most likely to see them
    post-1052-0-31662500-1399712983_thumb.pn
    Synopsis
    Long-wave upper trough extends south across the N Atlantic and NW Europe, with a strong 100knt jet stream across southern Britain today, which will drive an area of low pressure east across Ireland and S Scotland today, exiting into the N Sea tonight. The low's frontal system, bringing overnight rain, clears northern and eastern areas this morning, followed by a cool and showery Pm airmass across all areas today.

    ... IRELAND/N IRELAND, S SCOTLAND, WALES, CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ENGLAND, E ANGLIA ...

    Steepest lapse rates and thus most instability/CAPE today will be across the above areas beneath a pool of cold air at mid-levels associated with low/vortex moving east across Ireland and S Scotland. GFS indicates 400-800 j/kg CAPE this afternoon in the above areas, during peak heating period, so uncapped atmosphere should support scattered thunderstorm development late morning and PM. Though isolated lightning is possible in showers just about anywhere.

    Weak vertical shear where instability will be highest will mean storm structures will unlikely organise to bring a risk of severe weather, though lighter steering winds across N Ireland, N England and S Scotland will mean any storms will be slow-moving - bringing a risk of localised flash flooding where storms linger. Otherwise, storms may produce hail and gusty winds and, with increasing low-level shear indicated under light upper winds, there is potential for funnel clouds to develop which may extend to the ground as brief, weak tornadoes - particularly across Ireland, S Scotland and N England.

    Showers will continue overnight, though risk of thunderstorms will subside with lack of surface heating.
     
    Issued by: Nick Finnis
    Edited by Nick F
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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

    Certainly an exciting day for you lot up oooop nuuurrrrth today :D

    Gutted prospects are only slimly marginal here today as my exams are done and have oodles of sky spotting time - plus it's very mild and muggy outside and with areas of blue sky too for a bit of diurnal heating.

    Look forward to any pics/vids people get later - not heard a rumble of thunder now since 2013 so am bit storm starved :cray:

    Edited by Harry
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