Convective / Storm Discussion - 1st May 2014 onwards

[P-M]

Well I am on the eastern edge of that storm and surprised to see a fair bit of lightning on the edge.  It isn't over me yet the lightning still seems to be lighting the sky here as well as the thunder.  Can't complain after all :-))

[andy989]

Some nice lenticular clouds over the snowdonia mountain range. Will try get a photo if I get the time. Nothing to do with thunderstorms I know. Buts its all I got in my neck of the woods. 

Edited May 13, 2014 by andy989

[NL]

Frequent thunder now heard getting louder from the west here...

Some nice cloud to cloud lightning but became very infrequent/sporadic as the cell approached the coast..

[Gordon Webb]

would you believe it skirted all around me

 

I'm gutted (not really)

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Wow, just been watching a decent twilight lightning show over Northants!

This day was massively underestimated yesterday! Today has been miles better!

[Supacell]

Wow, just been watching a decent twilight lightning show over Northants!This day was massively underestimated yesterday! Today has been miles better!

 

Today, or rather this afternoon, has had the addition of some Deep layer shear which I think helped that cell around Northants to become briefly organised. Overall it has been rather disappointing in Derby, just ordinary showers, but great to see some have had some decent storms. 

 

Hopefully the ground can dry a bit and we can build some heat over the next 2-3 days to help aid the next round of storms

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Today, or rather this afternoon, has had the addition of some Deep layer shear which I think helped that cell around Northants to become briefly organised. Overall it has been rather disappointing in Derby, just ordinary showers, but great to see some have had some decent storms.  Hopefully the ground can dry a bit and we can build some heat over the next 2-3 days to help aid the next round of storms

Ah I see! Was wondering why it was spitting out around 2 strikes per minute at this time of the evening !! Yeah, this lovely warm weather will be welcome, then I'm hoping for some beefy storms from the S and SE to arrive !

[Cloud 10]

Some nice cloud to cloud lightning but became very infrequent/sporadic as the cell approached the coast..

 

That was a nice surprise at the end of a busy day,could see lightning to the north when this picture was taken over Newcastle way but no overhead strikes this time.

 

[NL]

That was a nice surprise at the end of a busy day,could see lightning to the north when this picture was taken over Newcastle way but no overhead strikes this time.

 

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Nice shelf cloud there C10..!.. A friend of mine was in Heaton at the time of the storm and witnessed many lightning strikes overhead, real shame the storm died as it came closer to the coast. At least I got to see several distant lightning and some nice cloud structure although not as good as your photograph.

[Petorious]

Was out driving my new car with a mate when this thunder storm came up unexpectedly, we got up on a hill near a huge new wind farm and the lightning was crashing all around us. This was Chelveston in Northamptonshire.

[TheToastPeople]

Brilliant thunderstorm to the north of Bedfordshire this evening, Sky went very dark around 8:30 and started rumbling. Left work early and drove to the nearest hill, first night time light show i have seen since those massive imports last summer! I have high hopes for all us storm fans this summer, its going to be our year!

[SnowJoke]

Brilliant thunderstorm to the north of Bedfordshire this evening, Sky went very dark around 8:30 and started rumbling. Left work early and drove to the nearest hill, first night time light show i have seen since those massive imports last summer! I have high hopes for all us storm fans this summer, its going to be our year!

 

While 10 Miles away in MK we got nowt, we usually do quite well for storms but I have that horrible gut feeling this year is going to be a duff one. Apart from that heavy squall in January and three passing rumbles, everything else has missed by a few miles every time. 

[Captain Shortwave]

Heads up for Saturday, GFS showing some decent potential over Central/Southern England

Given temperatures of 22/23C we could see some decent convection and possible thunderstorms.

[TheToastPeople]

While 10 Miles away in MK we got nowt, we usually do quite well for storms but I have that horrible gut feeling this year is going to be a duff one. Apart from that heavy squall in January and three passing rumbles, everything else has missed by a few miles every time. 

To be fair i have always found our area of the country rather storm starved, most storms i watch on the radar over the years always seem to go over northampton, or south over the luton area. Its not very often we get a storm from MK, but normally its where the big ones come from!

Edited May 13, 2014 by TheToastPeople

[Spikecollie]

Stunning cloudscapes on our flight to Nuremberg from Amsterdam this afternoon - approach and landing around a nice little t-storm which prevented us from leaving the parked aircraft for a while as ground staff were kept inside! Apocalyptic rain and some good hail battering the windows! Bedtime now...too much German wine me thinks...

[ChezWeather]

Really liking the look of the weekend and next week!

 

Admitted we are a long way off, but for now it looks like a decent risk for a few days next week 

[Convective]

Hints of potentially the best storms of the year so far next week, or perhaps as early as the weekend. Will be worth looking into all the ingredients nearer the time but so far the best days are looking like;

 

Saturday 

 

 

Monday

 

 

Tuesday

 

 

 

Still lots of time, therefore lots could change. Hopefully for the better though, and we will see them values up nearer 2000j/kg

Just need a couple more ingredients and there could be a few belters over the next week!

[Ben Sainsbury]

Definite potential for end of this week and early next week! These runs seem to keep the same scenario so just waiting and see! Best day cape wise looks to be Tuesday 20th.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Don't this bad boy look good for 17th May, it's going to change but oh well;)

ukcapeli.png

And I thought that May 17th wouldn't be on the cards for a few storms... 0z run:

[William Grimsley]

The charts have taken off this morning! It's going to be hot all of next week with lots of storm probability! Bring it on!

[Supacell]

Mouth watering charts for next week, let's hope that they actually come to fruition. I am hoping to get out there chasing if anything comes of Friday evening or Saturday.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

How I love it when I see charts like these! This is how I like the convective thread, full of joy and excitement!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Lovely charts.. But please don't be dis heartened when they begin to downgrade :/ 

[Chris K]

Lovely charts.. But please don't be dis heartened when they begin to downgrade :/ 

 

Yes quite an important point because the more tasty outputs are still 5-7 days away. If you have been following this thread for a while now, you realise that MOST of the time they will downgrade as we get closer to the day in question.

 

Ideally, a more slack low pressure to our W/SW, that is enough to create instability and also draw up moist airmasses from the continent, is what we want to see. However we do not want it to move too close, or moving NE'wards too quickly at the time, to push any thundery weather into the North Sea and beyond.

 

The interesting thing for me is that the trend for the trough to sink to our SW and towards the Bay of Biscay has shown up in GFS FI for a few days now, with it throwing up disturbances from the South towards us. ECM wants the trough closer to us, keeping the warmest air for the SE corner and continent.

 

So for now, it is too uncertain to say what will happen until we start seeing more agreement on pressure patterns for next week.

 

At least we have some exciting charts to twiddle our thumbs over and watch from behind the sofa...

Edited May 14, 2014 by Chris K

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I think close eyes are to be kept on how and where that low cuts between the highs out in the Atlantic.

It appears to be breaking through sooner and more westwards from recent runs, and I noticed ECM had a slight eastward correction before flipping back this morning!

I think as long as we can get that low cut off into the bay of biscay area, then everyone's a winner! As Surrey said though, try not to be too disheartened at any downgrades! It's a good 4 days+ away yet, so expect a few changes and Wobblies!

Edited May 14, 2014 by East_England_Stormchaser91