Convective / Storm Discussion - 1st May 2014 onwards

[anything-but]

Posted this in the S.E regional already,but how the sky is looking from bluewater towards Gravesend currently.

 

 

[Muffelchen]

Bucketing down now but still no thunder. Storm still appears to be strengthening according to the radar an there is some slow rotation with this. Too wet to see any kind of structure but you can see the scud moving in different directions (anticlockwise) as you look around.

 

According to my weather station, this is turning into a wet Month and May is usually one of the driest. Already three inches (over an inch today) and the average here is two inches or so per month.

[Muffelchen]

Just set a new highest rain rate at 37.2 mm/hr at 17:48 and it is still going strong outside. There was some pink on the radar a few minutes ago but now back to red. Sadly, still no thunder 

[SnowJoke]

Hmmm Storms to my north, to the east and the south, and here in MK it's lovely and sunny under that huge precipitation free gap running from NW Wales all the way through the south midlands. Still it's nice and warm out 

[A.J]

nice cloudscapes to my north as some electrified cells trundle SSE through north Wilts into Oxon towards the home counties....all tracking around 20-30 miles to my north so not affected here, but never the less nice looking glaciated Cb's..

 

latest NW  v4 radar grab highlighting the cells in this area with sferic overlay...

 

 

 

 

[saint]

One flash and one rumble about 15/20 minutes ago, accompanied by some heavy rain and hail. 

[Gonzolio Martinez]

Here's some random video from today's escapades.

Part 1:

Part 2:

Part 3:

And a bonus, one of the benefits of being near an airport runway:

[DAVID SNOW]

Storm passing over Romford Essex.

[Supercell 89]

Had an interesting heavy shower in Reading. The convection was pretty organised, with a clear inflow into the main cell and also with a brief area of rotation. Had some near pea sized hail to boot as well, wherever is south east of here is going to get a pounding in the next half hour. 

[Muffelchen]

Here's some random video from today's escapades.Part 2:http://youtu.be/geA_C2YmsmY 

You really shouldn't have driven across the field to try and catch up with the storm..... 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Another possible funnel cloud here. I must have missed it though because when I got to the window it was only the wall cloud left I think rotating quite noticeably.

[Chris K]

Away from the short term briefly, I wonder if we could be seeing the start of a pattern taking place whereby the trough forecast to be to the W of the UK next week actually eventually brings us a thundery spell of weather? The chances of this could potentially increase if it starts to transfer towards the Bay of Biscay.

 

There have been quite a few models runs the past few days suggesting this..but of course it will depend how things change with the trough positioning in the models after this weekend.

 

Not to be taken seriously at the moment, but something to keep an eye on. Difficult enough to forecasts storms within 1-2 days never mind 1-2 weeks. 

[Biggin]

Heavy rain here

[aggy]

Saw my first twister today by the time I stopped it was fizzling I was in Ayr looking north

[Greeny]

Rain and rumbling in Norwich. All IC as far as I can tell. Several rumbles a minute.Too close to reliably determine strength.

 Being out and about delivering hire cars took me away from any thunder and lightning, I did see that there were some sferics in north norfolk and apparently a bolt of lightning took out a signal on the norwich to sheringham line with greater anglia trains being delayed hehe. 

Lots of blue sky around here now, nice day really. All the showers that have formed so far in other parts today seem too closely packed together and all fighting for energy.Hoping as the cape builds further towards here this afternoon the clearer skies will help any showers become proper storms and not just passing thundery short showers.

 That's exactly what I've been thinking too. I also think it sheltered a lot of surface heating later in the afternoon to further intensify the storms that were around. It wasn't all that bad due to the hail and fairly heavy showers that passed through but it would have been better if there were 3 isolated cells in amongst clearer skies at least that way it's easier to pick a storm to chase. Today was mainly which one, which one lol squall lines behind, in front and besides. 

Here's some random video from today's escapades.Part 1:http://youtu.be/oXQAEMF5JIoPart 2:http://youtu.be/geA_C2YmsmYPart 3:http://youtu.be/i7QhpCin2IQAnd a bonus, one of the benefits of being near an airport runway:http://youtu.be/WXnljinTuTk

Yay! One of my favourite storm viewing spots. Luckily storms always seem to come in from the west south west so the routes to chase a storm are easier that way to keep ahead of them. Once away from that spot it can be a pain to view storms as there are a lot of trees and buildings around. I'm sure there are spots to keep an eye on them on the way. I did see rotation for the first time ever at the back there on one of the storms I watched and the storm wasn't all that either. I thought hang on are those clouds moving in different directions (I'm always looking for rotation) and yes they were. I wish I had a camcorder that day for reference.

[poseidon]

Some very tasty cloudscapes around my way today. Took a few pics of Cbs around South Essex:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/album/1535-12th13th-may-2014-thunderstorms/

 

 

 

Edited May 12, 2014 by poseidon

[Greeny]

Tomorrow could be a similar day with widespread potential. More detail will probably arrive in the morning of what to expect. Here are some charts to stew on anyway.

Convective precipitation widespread as the chart suggests. Cloudcover does seem to be present with perhaps some breaks according to this forecast. We shall see if cloud cover diminishes the potential somewhat. Today still kicked off even though breaks in the clouds (certainly in Norwich) were not that abundant.

(amateur perspective)

[Chris.R]

Thunder hear from a shower 10 minutes ago. Woke me up. Why does it always come when you're not expecting it. I'm happy anyway. Where did that come from though? ?

[poseidon]

Funnel cloud/tornado in Cumbria yesterday:

 

https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/465897810114912256/photo/1

[Nick F]

THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST

 

 

Synopsis

Long-wave upper trough and surface low pressure extends south into mainland Europe as far south as the Mediterranean during Tuesday, while a ridge builds north to the west over the East N Atlantic sector and Wern Eire. A slack but unstable W to NW flow cover the UK.

 

... S SCOTLAND and ENGLAND ...

 

With the UK now on the western edge of the European trough, steep lapse rates towards the eastern side of UK will support another round of increasingly heavy showers and thunderstorms development through the day across S Scotland and much of England (away from the SW), as surface heating increases into the afternoon. Like yesterday, a N-S wind convergence zone will set up, which will focus storm development, today in a line from SE Scotland down through N England, the east Midlands and on into SE England. Here storms may merge with each other along the convergence zone to produce slow-moving downpours - which may bring the risk of localised flooding. Elsewhere, expect scattered heavy showers to develop, with sporadic/pulse-type thunderstorms possible. Storms may produce small hail and gusty winds too. And like yesterday, light winds aloft and surface convergence will support the development of funnel clouds with stronger and more buoyant updrafts, with a small/isolated chance of them reaching the ground as brief/weak tornadoes.

 

 

Full forecast here: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Edited May 13, 2014 by Nick F

[Supacell]

It looks like a similar day to yesterday which would indicate the most showers and storms being INVOF the N-S convergence zone which looks to run from around NE England to London at 3pm this afternoon and moving very gradually eastwards. The difference today is some 20-30knts of DLS moving in from the west to be across the spine of England by mid-afternoon. I am not sure if this will play a part but if it does it could make areas just west of this zone the best places to be for organised activity.

[Nick L]

It looks like a similar day to yesterday which would indicate the most showers and storms being INVOF the N-S convergence zone which looks to run from around NE England to London at 3pm this afternoon and moving very gradually eastwards. The difference today is some 20-30knts of DLS moving in from the west to be across the spine of England by mid-afternoon. I am not sure if this will play a part but if it does it could make areas just west of this zone the best places to be for organised activity.

 

INVOF?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

INVOF?

 

In the vicinity of 

 

I think??? Dunno..

[VillagePlank]

An interesting day, today.

 

 

Lots of CAPE (1020j/kg) available in a moderately unstable (LI = -4), moderate to low lapse rates (K=24), leading to a forecast of showers to likely thunderstorms, some quite impressive (TT=55)

 

Likely areas are along a convergence zone running north to south down the mid-east of Britain

 

 

With some DLS (30 m/s) enhancing prospects

 

 

Of further interest is the chance of funnel clouds - note the interest in the far SE corner,

 

 

Best times look to be from 15z to nightfall, but anytime after 12z with sufficient surface warming.

Edited May 13, 2014 by Sparkicle

[Nick L]

In the vicinity of 

 

I think??? Dunno..

 

Would make sense I suppose. Bloody hate acronyms!