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Convective / Storm Discussion - 1st May 2014 onwards

Nick F

By Nick F
in Storms & Severe Weather

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James M Community Regular

James M

Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
  • Weather Preferences: warm and sunny, thunderstorms, frost, fog, snow, windstorms
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
Posted

Had a short intense downpour earlier.

 

Look at the rain over Ireland! pity there's no lightning.

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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted

Had a short intense downpour earlier.

 

Look at the rain over Ireland! pity there's no lightning.

 

It's off now! Lightning in the north of Ireland.

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Andy Bown Accomplished

Andy Bown

Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
Posted

Netweather V6 radar is showing a strike in Somerset not far from Wells.

I missed that, thanks for the info.

 

More rain in my gauge in the hour between 18.00-19.00 (8mm) than in 10 hours overnight last night (6mm) !

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Mullet69 Apprentice

Mullet69

Posted
  • Location: York
  • Location: York
Posted

Real intense shower passed over us on the golf course (north east York) about 7-45, very gusty and very wet. Lasted about 15 minutes and as soon as the rain stopped the thunder and lightning started. Counted 3 flashes and maybe half a dozen rumbles, heading Malton/Scarborough way.

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Greeny Aficionado

Greeny

Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
Posted (edited)

post-7331-0-67405100-1399414592_thumb.pn

 

might change but seems like a possible area for storms on thursday. Reasonable lapse rates and cape for east midlands.

 

(amateur perspective) :)

Edited by Greenday
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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted (edited)

There is lot to keep an eye on over the rest of this week with a fast moving flow from the Atlantic meaning we are likely to see short lived convective opportunities but maybe a number of them.

 

Today the favorable area would appear to be the north and east of Scotland along with the far NE of England that border Scotland. Although CAPE levels are not anything too special, and the risk is a low one, there is some DLS of around 20-30knts to play with and Lightning Wizard are indicating an area around Edinburgh where there could be the odd tornado.

 

post-2719-0-81951900-1399439719_thumb.pn

 

ELT's are ~ -20c too which would promote the risk of some lightning activity and hail in heavier showers, especially later on towards evening.

 

post-2719-0-25339800-1399439879_thumb.pn

 

Estofex covering this area with a 15% lightning risk so do not anticipate much in the way of severe weather, but I still felt it worth a mention.

 

Tomorrow and Friday pose a more widespread risk across the country. Presently things are looking quite interesting for areas such as the East Midlands, Lincolnshire and especially East Anglia. I will refrain from getting excited though as with such a mobile scenario it is possible that model output today will look different come tomorrow and the risk area will be shifted east onto the continent or not exist at all.

Edited by Supacell
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Keraunic Seasoned

Keraunic

Posted
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder Storms. All extreme weather.
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
Posted

There is lot to keep an eye on over the rest of this week with a fast moving flow from the Atlantic meaning we are likely to see short lived convective opportunities but maybe a number of them.

 

Today the favorable area would appear to be the north and east of Scotland along with the far NE of England that border Scotland. Although CAPE levels are not anything too special, and the risk is a low one, there is some DLS of around 20-30knts to play with and Lightning Wizard are indicating an area around Edinburgh where there could be the odd tornado.

 

Posted Imagegfs_stp_eur18.png

 

ELT's are ~ -20c too which would promote the risk of some lightning activity and hail in heavier showers, especially later on towards evening.

 

Posted Imagegfs_el_eur18.png

 

Estofex covering this area with a 15% lightning risk so do not anticipate much in the way of severe weather, but I still felt it worth a mention.

 

Tomorrow and Friday pose a more widespread risk across the country. Presently things are looking quite interesting for areas such as the East Midlands, Lincolnshire and especially East Anglia. I will refrain from getting excited though as with such a mobile scenario it is possible that model output today will look different come tomorrow and the risk area will be shifted east onto the continent or not exist at all.

Ooh, I do hope so. Bring it on I say. :D
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Eye to the sky Enthusiast

Eye to the sky

Posted
  • Location: Denby,Derbyshire,90m/295ft asl De5
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Clear and Frosty/Snow Showers
  • Location: Denby,Derbyshire,90m/295ft asl De5
Posted

Some heavy squally showers developing over the Midlands now,just had one pass over Derby with heavy rain and gusty winds.Looking promising Wolverhampton way as I speak.

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted (edited)

Some heavy squally showers developing over the Midlands now,just had one pass over Derby with heavy rain and gusty winds.Looking promising Wolverhampton way as I speak.

YES!  I can vouch for that, Heavy rain here..... But regarding Wolverhampton? Looks like Birmingham to me! http://www.raintoday.co.uk/mobile

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Looking quite dark to the West. Tomorrow looks rather interesting for the likes of Leicestershire, Notts, Lincs and East Anglia :)

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SnowJoke Enthusiast

SnowJoke

Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL
Posted

About 20 minutes ago there was an almighty bang in Milton Keynes thought it was thunder but it didn't rumble and nothing is showing on radar as electrified. Very strange as it sounded more like an explosion, did anyone else hear it?

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted (edited)

Cats and dogs here and very blustery to go with it, the bright echoes http://www.raintoday.co.uk/mobile went straight over me here, roads like rivers for a short while :)

Not a sniff of any thunder/lightning :closedeyes:

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

Looking quite dark to the West. Tomorrow looks rather interesting for the likes of Leicestershire, Notts, Lincs and East Anglia :)

It looks very interesting on GFS. My only concern is that the Bbc and Met Office have persistent rain and cloud forecast over this area tomorrow pm. We have had plenty of good looking situations ruined by cloud so far this year, I hope this won't be another.
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Keraunic Seasoned

Keraunic

Posted
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder Storms. All extreme weather.
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
Posted

About 20 minutes ago there was an almighty bang in Milton Keynes thought it was thunder but it didn't rumble and nothing is showing on radar as electrified. Very strange as it sounded more like an explosion, did anyone else hear it?

I'll see if I can find out what it may have been. Very mysterious. :O
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Keraunic Seasoned

Keraunic

Posted
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder Storms. All extreme weather.
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
Posted

Maybe it was this, Snow Joke......

http://www.mkweb.co.uk/News/Central-Milton-Keynes-bus-fire-spreading-to-nearby-building-20140507154243.htm

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Ross Andrew Hemphill Community Regular

Ross Andrew Hemphill

Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
Posted

Sky looks very dark here. Any chance of thunder?

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poseidon Aficionado

poseidon

Posted
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
Posted (edited)
Supacell, on 07 May 2014 - 16:14, said:Supacell, on 07 May 2014 - 16:14, said:Supacell, on 07 May 2014 - 16:14, said:Supacell, on 07 May 2014 - 16:14, said:

It looks very interesting on GFS. My only concern is that the Bbc and Met Office have persistent rain and cloud forecast over this area tomorrow pm. We have had plenty of good looking situations ruined by cloud so far this year, I hope this won't be another.

Yep, looking like cloudy all day with no breaks till 18:00 in the area of interest, at the moment.....

 

post-17315-0-06460300-1399480575_thumb.j

 

Source: UK Met Office.

 

Edit: I just had a look at the equivalent GFS cloud cover chart and it shows the same, but GFS is also showing LI of -3 and decent CAPE.

Edited by poseidon
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Lauren Veteran

Lauren

Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
Posted

All gone a bit stormy looking here.

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Greeny Aficionado

Greeny

Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
Posted (edited)

I think it is worth the detail weather09 cause it does look interesting currently, the thing that worries me is like been said the cloud cover suppressing any surface heating. The run this time shows a lot of precipitation around the area of interest during the morning. Maybe this could be good if we get breaks in the clouds for the afternoon and water evaporation adds to the fuel maybe?

 

Still gonna be well worth rechecking in the morning :)

 

Edit: Tom Jarvis you might be a bit too far south but you are not a million miles away from it, you never know.

post-7331-0-14253400-1399496328_thumb.pn

Edited by Greenday
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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted (edited)

Cape looks interesting for tomorrow, some heavy showers instore into the afternoon, maybe with a few cracks of thunder/lightning in the mix!

 

Posted Image

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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SnowJoke Enthusiast

SnowJoke

Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL
Posted

 

Could well have been, thanks for finding the article. I thought it sounded like an explosion and not thunder, perhaps it was the fuel tank exploding I could hear, as I live less than 1KM from the Bus Station right by the shopping centre. 

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted (edited)

My strike alert lightning detector has detected 1 strike in 24-40 miles and 1 strike in 12-24 miles from Newton Poppleford. I'm hoping they are real strikes.

 

No lightning strikes detected.

Edited by William Grimsley
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