Convective / Storm Discussion - 1st May 2014 onwards

[Nick F]

Netweather Storm forecast for today:

 

 

Synopsis
A shallow area of low pressure and surface fronts will lie across central and southern UK today, while surface high pressure begins to build south across northern Britain. Airmass will become unstable with any surface heating today, with a chance of thunderstorms developing this afternoon across central and southern Britain, with localised flooding the main risk from any storms.

... ENGLAND, WALES, IRELAND/N IRELAND ...

Risk of thunderstorms today will be conditional on cloud cover fragmenting to allow sunshine to create sufficient surface heating to destabilise airmass. With low geopotential heights/steep lapse rates today atop a moist surface airmass, GFS builds 300-500 j/kg CAPE this afternoon south of a line between Liverpool Bay to The Wash, with a few 100 j/kg CAPE across Ireland/N Ireland too, subject to surface heating. So there is a risk of thunderstorms developing, where insolation develops. Vertical shear and upper winds will be weak, so any storms that develop will be slow-moving, with the main threat being excessive rainfall bringing a risk of flash-flooding. Surface wind convergence indicated across southern England, along with light winds aloft, may support the development of funnel clouds too with more buoyant/vigorous updrafts into cumulonimbus clouds.
 

Issued by: Nick Finnis

 

Full forecast here: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

 

[Jane Louise]

Ok cameras at the ready, will it or wont it today? let's hope this cloud cover can budge and bring us some sunshine. Here's a new thread to discuss storms starting from the month of May. Now let's get this storm season started and may it be a good one .

[Supacell]

No F1-F2 tornadoes unfortunately 

 

I am concerned now about cloud cover today. Plenty of time for it to break but it shows no signs of doing here at the moment. 

Edited May 1, 2014 by Supacell

[Darren Bown]

I don't understand how there will be thunderstorms today in England, there's a line of moderate frontal rain slap bang over England and it feels fresher today?

[A.J]

I don't understand how there will be thunderstorms today in England, there's a line of moderate frontal rain slap bang over England and it feels fresher today?

I'm trying to work that out as well Darren....steady rain here at the moment with extensive cloud cover, unless conditions rapidly change, thunderstorms look very unlikely

[Darren Bown]

Metoffice's ppn predictions show the frontal rain fizzling from the north (Wales) from around noon, to allow heavy showers to break out in N Wales, midlands to the SE England.

[pad199207]

Cloud seems to be thinning across Ireland now. Allowing Cumulus development according to Sat

[Supacell]

GFS isn't looking as good as yesterday is it with the usual downgrade after downgrade. However, from the latest charts, if I was to pick areas out I would go with North Wales down into the West Midlands eventually into the Bristol area and the SE Midlands into western East Anglia and eventually the SE. A chance elsewhere but these look the favored spots. Of course if cloud does not clear then thunderstorms unlikely.

 

"best guess using the GFS model"

 

Edited May 1, 2014 by Supacell

[Mapantz]

This looks horrid!

The MO have only had me down for a bit of heavy rain for the past few days, so I knew not to get too excited.

[Supacell]

Anyone else having problems with the V6 radar or is it just me?

[Darren Bown]

Metoffice updated their warnings slightly more north, and definitely more east, so they still see the slightly higher risk of thunderstorms today.

[Mapantz]

Anyone else having problems with the V6 radar or is it just me?

I'm getting problems with the V4 and viewing the Netweather charts.

[TheToastPeople]

Anyone else having problems with the V6 radar or is it just me?

Its been very slow to load for the past hour now, on the one day we might need it!!

[Chris.R]

Liverpool airport TAF going for rain showers and thunderstorm grauple this afternoon. 

[Adi F]

The flat monotone cloud here has started to get some texture in it which suggests it is being stirred up a bit and starting break up. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

The flat monotone cloud here has started to get some texture in it which suggests it is being stirred up a bit and starting break up. 

 

I was going to say the same thing if you run the radar loop on the sat it shows it thinning in places... However this low pressure is just doing circles around us currently..

[poseidon]

Had a look at met office cloud cover overlay earlier today and seemed to show some hope for central western areas later, but over here it stays put all day. Foecast for me is light rain and cloud!!

[Arnie Pie]

 

Low cloud base over Staffs atm

Edited May 1, 2014 by Arnie Pie

[Chris.R]

Sun's been out here for a while. It's lovely, and feeling very humid. Temp 14°C

Edited May 1, 2014 by Chris R

[Karl83]

Anyone else having problems with the V6 radar or is it just me?

Yes me too. EDIT: Radar working now.

 

Sun is slowly trying to break through the cloud here. I can just about see it but cant quite feel it, yet.

Edited May 1, 2014 by Karl83

[TonyH]

Heavy downpours developing over the Midlands could these turn thundery?

[SnowJoke]

Been overcast here all morning with outbreaks of light patchy rain, but the suns trying to break through now and the temperature is rising. Very calm and humid even though the temp isn't that great. People have been saying they are not sure how we'd see storms, but I think it's due to complex set of fronts currently moving around the country acting as the forcing mechanism, so once you get a clear slot showers are likely to grow quickly.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

sun trying hard here too

[Jane Louise]

Here too the sun is breaking through.Starting to feel quite humid. I thought I heard thunder earlier but it was the damn farmer  driving  his trailer on his farm grrrr

Edited May 1, 2014 by Jane Louise

[Chris.R]

Well sun has been out strong for the passed hour.