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Convective / Storm Discussion - 21st April 2014 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

As normal the rain has fizzled into drizzle here. Hopefully the local none event will pass through and we will get some sun this afternoon.

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Posted
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)

White blanket still in place here although it's trying to get brighter. However, not feeling particularly optimistic in light of continuing deterioration in charts and now a much more benign forecast from ukmo.

Ah, sun has now finally made an appearance!

Edited by poseidon
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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

As stated it is the SE which will see any of the action today if it occurs, with 1000-1300J/kJ in that area, with a small chance of supercell development. This is ikely to peak around 4pm-6pm and ive highlighted the areas where I think is at most risk:

Posted Image

Radar already showing signs of convective showers near Canterbury, and its these showers which will originate from here where will hopefully develop for you guys later on!

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post-17320-0-89540500-1398430043_thumb.p

Edited by Panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Well the main band of rain is now just a band of moderate rain with any convective elements being squeezed out of it. Forecast was for it to expand, which I suppose it has done, but at the same time it has lost intensity. I am worried now about this afternoon/evening's prospects.

 

Hopefully you are right Panayiotis.

Edited by Supacell
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

As stated it is the SE which will see any of the action today if it occurs, with 1000-1300J/kJ in that area

:o I haven't seen any charts showing that much?

 

That must be the WRF? 

Massive difference between that and the GFS, surely there must be an error or an old chart?

 

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Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Leaden skies prevail here, although humidity feels on the rise (if not the temperature much)

 

Feeling 5% confident of storms here - have been waiting all day for Estofex to downgrade their forecast.

 

Am expecting EA/NE England, perhaps E Midlands to get something electrical this evening/overnight.

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Posted
  • Location: Up North like
  • Location: Up North like

Warming up here18.1c but checking the radar there looks like there is something popping up to the west of me near Exeter. Wonder if it could get interesting soon

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Posted
  • Location: Strood , Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summers & Mild Winters
  • Location: Strood , Kent

Sun broke through here just now.  For about 10 secs.  Maybe some hope for something but not expecting anything

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

FGS, we are such a bodge for brewing storms!! Only thing I'm hoping for now is for an explosion over France/Belgium and then drift over our way later. Checked a few cams over the other side of the water in Belgium and the sun seems to be out there with it looking quite thundery, so not lost hope quite yet! 

I remember feeling like we had been robbed on 22nd July 2013, then overnight it was like clash of the titans! 

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Posted
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)

Few more sferics appearing in Belgium now

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

All the forecasts are so far looking completely wrong, doesn't surprise me really! Well give it till the end of the day before bashing all out

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

FGS, we are such a bodge for brewing storms!! Only thing I'm hoping for now is for an explosion over France/Belgium and then drift over our way later. Checked a few cams over the other side of the water in Belgium and the sun seems to be out there with it looking quite thundery, so not lost hope quite yet! 

I remember feeling like we had been robbed on 22nd July 2013, then overnight it was like clash of the titans! 

 

Feeling a bit downhearted at the moment as it just doesn't look that good, but as you say there is still hope. I struggle to see 20c or so being reached in the SE though. What makes it worse is the prospect of cold weather next week coinciding with my week off work boo hoo!!!

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Feeling a bit downhearted at the moment as it just doesn't look that good, but as you say there is still hope. I struggle to see 20c or so being reached in the SE though. What makes it worse is the prospect of cold weather next week coinciding with my week off work boo hoo!!!

Ah don't remind me man! My post said it all in the model thread earlier haha! This NE wind we've had all day is doing my head in now too.

Seriously cannot be bothered with this lame cold being forecast just to add misery to what I would've liked to have been a warm bank holiday with a barbecue. Clearly scuppered now by the look of it -_-!

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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

Encouraging to see the cells developing across N.Brussels did so within the space of an hour, still plenty of daytime heating left for something similar in the SE transitioning northwards. Beeb put the more heaviest showers around late evening anyway so i'm still optimistic myself.

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Ah don't remind me man! My post said it all in the model thread earlier haha! This NE wind we've had all day is doing my head in now too.

Seriously cannot be bothered with this lame cold being forecast just to add misery to what I would've liked to have been a warm bank holiday with a barbecue. Clearly scuppered now by the look of it -_-!

 

I suppose next weekend is a long way off and things could change but cold weather in May is the worst. Today's prospects did not show up until Wednesday, although to be fair they are not particularly good right now. 

 

Some heavy showers breaking out around Pembrokeshire, thunderstorms over W Ireland and Belgium is alight currently, but these Belgians are more likely to track to the east of the UK. We need for things to develop over N France really. If things can go bang over Belgium then it could very likely happen over France too in the next few hours - a straw at least :)

Edited by Supacell
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Posted
  • Location: Strood , Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summers & Mild Winters
  • Location: Strood , Kent

The sun keeps breaking through now and again.  No signs of the cloud breaking enough though

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Jay Wynne on the 3pm forecast still talking of thundery downpours in the same places - SE/EA/Midlands/NE...just popped outside again and no sign of this greyness clearing - quite chilly with cloud continuing to blow in from the NE

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Posted
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)

Is the sun shining down in the SE? Still feeling optimistic for some late evening storms!

Not round here, totally cloudy day with drizzle.
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Posted
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder - not necessarily at the same time!
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL

Don't think anything will occur up here: the thundery rain has now stopped but the skies are still leaden and the temperature has not gotten above 9°C all day. Wife has put the heating on. Nuff said  :mellow:

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

It all seems to be kicking off over Benelux now folks! Game on?  :yahoo:

 

How is that game on? It's not exactly active near here and no sun!

 

Edited :(

Edited by Victor Meldrew
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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Yeah, fantastic that storms are initialising in Belgium....but Belgium is about 300 miles away. 

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